bitcoin
Short

Inside a low volume bearish market

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Short ideas on BTC             are very unpopular but after a lot of shorting since 20K it is now "safe" to show some bear perspective. The market works like a chess game, you need to think not only your side as a bull but also the other side as bear.

It's clear for me market has changed in 2018, low volumes, taxes, money changing hands, people leaving and Chart analysis changed too with traps everywhere, most people got confused with this change, you need some time to figure out how this change impacted the market and it's new operation mode.

I also saw some people talking about get out of the market for a while, and I agree this is the best time for a vacation while market build a new pattern.

I notice starting on 2018 and futures expiry date, market was a lot sideways, most rockets have a very short run, so something has changed but it was not clear how. And this motivates me to have a new view, of a low volume bearish market !

I notice this pattern a lot on XRPBTC             , going down very slowly recently with spikes going high for a short time and for the first time it makes sense and have harmonic feeling on BTCUSD             and decide to gave it a shot on what looks like the final bearish run.

The objective here is not to get it strictly perfect on every high and low and all timings but to give a very fast perpective of the scenario.
Comment: Bears are controlling the MA so far, not allowing any stable run above its moving average on 15M timeframe. Yes, 15M timeframe, crypto is currently so sideways you can use the 15M timeframe ! I am expecting some rebound after crossing the MA and a very weak run of 12% at max with bears selling all the time and trying to engulf it and be certain they are still controlling the market. What you can with 12%, well it is a lot if you leverage it 2x or 3x to 24% or 36% but at the same time is a lot of risks since whales could put a wall after your trade any moment and you will have to stop loss. So the recomendation here is neutral and you can do whatever is your profile of risk taking:

Comment: So far very much sideways and failing to cross the MA on the 1H timeframe, if it engolf downward here we will reach 9k ahead of schedule:

Comment: There is a chance to go straight to 8K as BTC is ahead of any schedule here, I tried to adjust the timing but none seen so early as this so it is possible, not just probable so early. The 0.5 Fibo is usually a very strong one and after missing any minor pullback, the market is really on need for a rebound to point (d):

Comment: With more people turning bearish the downward pace got way ahead of schedule, and the market can go straight to 8K leaving no room for bulls, the point (d) can be erased completely:

Comment: This is the situation right now, adjusted all timing erasing inner minor swings. I still believe on the blue D point, but the market is erasing all my swings so far and coming straight down, be prepared if the blue D point does not occour:

Comment: Volumes today is like old times :)
Comment: Bears still controlling the market with a bulltrap on our 0.5 Fibo and controlling below our MA, can go straight to 6.6K levels, expecting a panic sell like never before. But keep in mind the point D, just in case, with a trailing stop controlling the risk:

Comment: Market mostly sideways waiting the MA on 1H timeframe. I don't expect it to cross on the first strike, but if bears allows to mount a pivot a go for two market will get a nice rebound, at least to point D. If not, it will just resume downtrend straight to 6,6K:

Comment: So far crossing the MA, possible cenario with a new D point:

Comment: It is weaker today, low volumes of weekend, can pickup more pace on monday:

Comment: BTC geting a lot more bearish than expected, our D on this scenario is on the past !! It just broke down our possible 5 waves, what trick can It do now ? Get ready to short:

Comment: Updated view:

Trade closed: target reached: This idea target got to it's target but I have another idea going on with a new target of 5,8K, it is on the related ideas just below this page
thank you :)
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thanks lot
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thanks for ta :)
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bitcoin ilkayozcelik
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@bitcoin, thanks for update
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Thanks for your insights
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When is this bear market going to end? Anytime soon? March? April?
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bitcoin EBMH2012
@EBMH2012, Markets are so dynamic, if it doesn't change much and this vision stay as is, for an aggressive eager to buy investor, it can end Feb-17, for buying after the very low level Mar-03, and for a "conservative" safe buy it can go as much as Apr-07. This is not set on stone, just estimates based on this chart as is. As the markets progress everything keeps changing !
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