Many receive advice, only the wise profit from it.
What’s possible for the most talked about currency in the world in 2018. I think if we want to see what’s possible we need to have a look back over the last 12 months. In February 2017 BTC was around 1250USD and going sideways.
I have posted yesterday about my belief for the next few months we are likely to mimic that action with Price ranging between $6,000 the 200ema and , $10,000 and $12,000. Don’t worry traders as the currency matures and levels develop it will become easier and easier to make money from these ranges and the moves between them. For the buy and hold guys a bit more patience will be required.
In late April/early May we say the coin started to slowly accelerate. Really it was nothing special cruising up to around 3.500USD in late September (special in percentage terms but not for what bitcoin has done in past) It was solid progress. From October to late December in 3 months it went up more than 6 times its value as word of its success spread and people poured in to share in the easy money. Greed ran rife and price smashed up, and for those that owned BTC we made great money.
We have now seen the pull back and as I have said it looks to be like a return of the ranging type behaviour of early last year. Of course this time last year we were at $1250, and this year we at 8800. If we were to see the same pattern as last year with some consolidation, followed by some slight buying, followed by the same excited bull rally where would we go $1250 x 1500% is $18750, which we achieved last year. Starting from $8800 this year, $8800 x 1500% is 132,000USD. So who is still picking $100,000 USD? This is a coin that does what it wants and has very little interest in whats normal.
While there are more professionals moving into the Crypto space, this is still an ametuer domain really, and therefore value runs a lot emotion rather than logic. As a trader would I pick 100K, no way. But as someone who has seen the power of greed I have no doubt it could. This is partly a social currency and will move to some degree on the mood of the people.
So what about the technical. For me they are simple and dangerous. If we get a daily close below $6000 I will be getting short or on the side-lines. Things can get crazy down there.
Before we can know how strong this bottom is we need another low. For me a low has two bars above it on both sides, and we don’t have one on a since $6,000. Ideally for me the most sign would be a retest of $6,000 with the new low forming there. This will confirm for everyone that there are buyers at the level and create some confidence going forward.
From there we will need to break, come back and extend one at a time off the 200ema, $10,000, and $12,000 levels. For me this could easily be a while away, and when it is confidence will have returned, everyone will be talking about top side targets and well, from there this may be partly an emotional game again.
I believe we will see the consolidation and the slow gains, I think good traders, will make plenty while that happens. After 12000 is broken we will see a different psychology and anything is possible, even $100,000.
Always remember if you want to make dollars your decisions need to make sense. This is a time for patience and a rebuild of confidence. During this time take profits early.
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