Leozinho

BTC going against the odds? Or already falling again?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC/USD is showing some reversal candles on daily chart even though market sentiment is still completly bearish . I believe this bear run we just faced is a sign that a bull market is indeed much more distant than we thought like the bears are spreading everywhere since january. Still, I believe we have some room to run up before probably coming crashing down to face a double bottom or a retest of 7k support zones, duo to the reversal signs we are getting. I think we will come back down at some point (maybe even right now as everyone seems to think) because I don't think we will have enough strenght to break resistance zones we did fail to break last couple times, and this time we broke a few more supports we will have to build up again. But on this last downtrend a falling wedge was made and we didn't get anywhere near our last bottom of february 6th , telling me that this downtrend is probably lacking strenght to go lower right now. I also noticed that shorts are near ATH -0.22% , accumulating since 9.3k and through the dip at 7.6k, making me think they would probably close it at some point if we start running back to their starting price. Breaking out of this wedge would require the price to break 8.6k on the next couple days (or lower prices if we decide to bounce inside the wedge for the next week, but as we are getting the reversal candles now...) and it's target is set to somewhere around 10.8k. As long as the price stays inside the wedge , I plan to buy the break out, if it has genuine volume and/or closes above the wedge line, giving me better sings of a true break out, with tralling s/l and watching closely for resistance zones and reversal signs, since we are in a very dangerous place right now.

From the other side I plan to be very careful as we still may be facing hard sellings on the next days. These two candles aren't enough to tell me that we reversed (1 still didn't even close yet) and we are lacking volume to put the price on the break out zone of 8.6k. If we don't get there soon, failing at 8.3k, I think we will probably start falling again. Also, I've seen at least two falling wedges that we failed to break out since december and what comes after that is a very, very ugly dump. If this wedge fails and breaks down I plan to look for reversal zones from 6k to 8k to start back my longs or try a swing trade like I'm trying now, in case the scenario is still ugly.
This 6-7k scenario seems very likely right now, I've seen lots of charts showing bear flags and it's targets and it looks genuine. Last week top fails and new lows were, in my opinion, the last chance the market had to regain a short term confidence of the people and new lows or retests are expected now. I'm trying to catch some short term signs and I'm willing to pay some losses to see how it plays out in case we break up the wedge .
I'm still holding the amount I hold for long term, and looking to add more as we get reversals on lower levels.
Mar 16
Comment: Currently at 8.6k getting close to the break out area, and as we did that before I expected, the break out is a little higher right now, at 8.8k.
Mar 18
Trade active: Just broke out the wedge on linear chart, opened my position with 25% of the amount I want to trade and waiting to add more on a retest of the wedge as support or a break of 8.4k. We also got a bullish crossover on 4hr.

Mar 19
Comment: We also broke out from the wedge on the log chart, I'm going full on my position and only liquidating if I see a reversal, but I expect at least 9.2k.
Mar 20
Comment: 9k... Resistance is around 9250 so a reversal here is unlikely. Target of the falling wedge is at 10.7k but I'm looking to sell some of my position if I get reversal signs at 9.2k and above that level because I'm sure the sell pressure is gonna come back at some point, also we are either on a wave 1 or 3 (2 and 4 are corrections), and 9.2k is where we find the first important fib level (0.78) of the downtrend from December.
Circle represents that fib
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