BTC/USD is showing some reversal candles on daily chart
even though market sentiment is still completly bearish
. I believe this bear run we just faced is a sign that a bull market is indeed much more distant than we thought like the bears are spreading everywhere since january. Still, I believe we have some room to run up before probably coming crashing down to face a double bottom
or a retest of 7k support zones, duo to the reversal signs we are getting. I think we will come back down at some point (maybe even right now as everyone seems to think) because I don't think we will have enough strenght to break resistance zones we did fail to break last couple times, and this time we broke a few more supports we will have to build up again. But on this last downtrend a falling wedge
was made and we didn't get anywhere near our last bottom of february 6th
, telling me that this downtrend is probably lacking strenght to go lower right now. I also noticed that shorts are near ATH
-0.22% , accumulating since 9.3k and through the dip at 7.6k, making me think they would probably close it at some point if we start running back to their starting price. Breaking out of this wedge
would require the price to break 8.6k on the next couple days (or lower prices if we decide to bounce inside the wedge
for the next week, but as we are getting the reversal candles now...) and it's target is set to somewhere around 10.8k. As long as the price stays inside the wedge
, I plan to buy the break out, if it has genuine volume
and/or closes above the wedge
line, giving me better sings of a true break out, with tralling s/l and watching closely for resistance zones and reversal signs, since we are in a very dangerous place right now.
From the other side I plan to be very careful as we still may be facing hard sellings on the next days. These two candles aren't enough to tell me that we reversed (1 still didn't even close yet) and we are lacking volume
to put the price on the break out zone of 8.6k. If we don't get there soon, failing at 8.3k, I think we will probably start falling again. Also, I've seen at least two falling wedges
that we failed to break out since december and what comes after that is a very, very ugly dump. If this wedge
fails and breaks down I plan to look for reversal zones from 6k to 8k to start back my longs or try a swing trade like I'm trying now, in case the scenario is still ugly.
This 6-7k scenario seems very likely right now, I've seen lots of charts showing bear flags and it's targets and it looks genuine. Last week top fails and new lows were, in my opinion, the last chance the market had to regain a short term confidence of the people and new lows or retests are expected now. I'm trying to catch some short term signs and I'm willing to pay some losses to see how it plays out in case we break up the wedge
I'm still holding the amount I hold for long term, and looking to add more as we get reversals on lower levels.