llywellyn

Bitcoin Outlook - Capitulate to 3k, Ascend to 300k in 3 Years

Long
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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This is how I see Bitcoin working out from now until the next all-time high. Let me walk you through it.

The 2013/14/15 fractal is proving to be a reliable road map for what's happening now, both in terms of Bitcoin's parabolic rise & now fall. For the sake of simplicity I'm labeling the primary corrective structure ABC . It is undoubtedly more complex than that & Elliotticians can likely give you a more technical count. In terms of how it's functioning, it's basically:

  • A wave zigzag to form the first sharp pullback <- completed
  • B wave triangle/flat structure as a connector <- completed
  • C wave capitulation w deep wave 4 pullback & final low/ double bottom /truncated 5th wave to end it <- in process

We can see 5 clean touches in the triangle which is standard. The recent top at 8500 was the final E wave. The C wave then distinguished itself with a sharp pullback to 6k with hardly a bounce along the way. Right now I believe we are in wave 2 of C which will be the final consolidation before wave 3 & the hard drop to the bottom.

The main reason why I like this chart so much is that it comes together effortlessly. When you take the fractal from 2014/15 starting at the end of the E wave & move it to the corresponding point in 2018, it creates a perfectly parallel channel that bottoms with support at the original long term trend line , & completes at the top boundary of the channel created by drawing a trend line through the previous 2 all time highs. This would give us a clear, clean 5 wave structure, with the top reaching ~300k almost exactly 3 years from now.

Another reason this makes sense is it feels like a reasonable timetable for fundamentals to catch up to Bitcoin . it looks like the questions surrounded the ETF should be resolved sometime in 2019, which would work as a nice catalyst for beginning a new bull market. Also, one can imagine that in that time adoption & acceptance should increase - & with lower retail prices will be easier to attract new capital into the market, whereas right now & prior to now the perception for most is that they "missed the boat." When the boat sails back into port it will give a much larger group the chance to join the movement at a more comfortable psychological level with a reasonable expectation that their investment won't lose 90% of its value - but will most likely increase in value tremendously.

So while Bitcoin declining so much in value is a bummer in the short term, it's time to start looking at this as the opportunity of a lifetime. If you could go back in time & buy BTC at 3k or 4k before it made its run to 20k you'd do it in a second. This time, you may be able to catch it at those levels, & within 3 years so 200k or 300K. Now's your chance to prepare to take advantage of this. After this bottoming process Bitcoin will probably never see these prices again.

I recommend having your orders in well ahead of time. Once the 100 week MA breaks down (currently at 5k) the speed of decline will increase rapidly & price will look for support at the 200MA (currently 2680). 2700/2800 is the sweet spot I'm looking to hit. That brings us down between the .786 & .886 fibs of the entire cycle, which has historically has been a strong reversal fib zone for Bitcoin . If price does hit ~2800 it will probably just wick into that level like lightning & bounce back to 5/6k levels quickly & then bounce in between. This will create some incredibly trading opportunities if you're prepared!

Good luck out there & trade safe!
Trade active: Not a bad prediction for 2 1/2 years in the future :)

As of today, I believe we are tracking towards a top closer to 200K - & at this rate we would hit that before the end of April. Long way to go but the important thing is she's looking good & strong, with a lot of upside left. About half way there on the parabolic journey.

Long live Bitcoin!

Comments

Excellent analysis, thanks. I agree with the area of the bottom, 2-3k is probably the bottom. The timing will be indeed crucial for filling the buy orders at these "cheap coin" levels. I will put buy orders from 2500-3500, just to spread them over a larger area, catching the perfect bottom on this is impossible. But an average of 3k would be already considered a perfect buy in a few years.
+1 Reply
llywellyn SebastianofMoon
@SebastianofMoon, Thanks! that's the way I'm looking at this too. Spread a wide net & hopefully it hits most of them.
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I assume the same figures about bottom and raise. However, I have some gut feeling that we will process this in a shorter time frame than you propose. The adoption of BTC and the industry behind all the alt coins (however rediculous they might be sometimes) will accellerate the progress from my point of view.
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@BORGG, Yeah that sounds reasonable. Wouldn't surprise me. The key here is to get in at the low & ride it to the top, however long it takes!
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BORGG llywellyn
@llywellyn, i am not a good drawer. But there are enough charts showing this zigzag since 20k till now. 20 -> 6 -> 11.5 -> 6 -> 10.0 -> 6 -> 8.5 -> 6. The interesting is: the last down from 8.5 back to the 6 was very fast in the time. Even if it raises again to 7.x whatever... this will the last breather and than something "new" will happen. I do not believe it will last until september with all the ETF decisions comming up. I have really no clue whether it is going up or down. Down looks reasonable to me, but BTC and other coins have proven us crazy things can happen in crypto. I'm looking forward to it. I went into fiat 1 week ago and just wait for an entry, whereever it comes.
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