The 2013/14/15 is proving to be a reliable road map for what's happening now, both in terms of Bitcoin's parabolic rise & now fall. For the sake of simplicity I'm labeling the primary corrective structure ABC . It is undoubtedly more complex than that & Elliotticians can likely give you a more technical count. In terms of how it's functioning, it's basically:
- A wave to form the first sharp pullback <- completed
- B wave triangle/flat structure as a connector <- completed
- C wave capitulation w deep wave 4 pullback & final low/ /truncated 5th wave to end it <- in process
We can see 5 clean touches in the triangle which is standard. The recent top at 8500 was the final E wave. The C wave then distinguished itself with a sharp pullback to 6k with hardly a bounce along the way. Right now I believe we are in wave 2 of C which will be the final consolidation before wave 3 & the hard drop to the bottom.
The main reason why I like this chart so much is that it comes together effortlessly. When you take the from 2014/15 starting at the end of the E wave & move it to the corresponding point in 2018, it creates a perfectly that bottoms with support at the original long term , & completes at the top boundary of the channel created by drawing a through the previous 2 all time highs. This would give us a clear, clean 5 wave structure, with the top reaching ~300k almost exactly 3 years from now.
Another reason this makes sense is it feels like a reasonable timetable for fundamentals to catch up to Bitcoin . it looks like the questions surrounded the should be resolved sometime in 2019, which would work as a nice catalyst for beginning a new bull market. Also, one can imagine that in that time adoption & acceptance should increase - & with lower retail prices will be easier to attract new capital into the market, whereas right now & prior to now the perception for most is that they "missed the boat." When the boat sails back into port it will give a much larger group the chance to join the movement at a more comfortable psychological level with a reasonable expectation that their investment won't lose 90% of its value - but will most likely increase in value tremendously.
So while Bitcoin declining so much in value is a bummer in the short term, it's time to start looking at this as the opportunity of a lifetime. If you could go back in time & buy BTC at 3k or 4k before it made its run to 20k you'd do it in a second. This time, you may be able to catch it at those levels, & within 3 years so 200k or 300K. Now's your chance to prepare to take advantage of this. After this bottoming process Bitcoin will probably never see these prices again.
I recommend having your orders in well ahead of time. Once the 100 week MA breaks down (currently at 5k) the speed of decline will increase rapidly & price will look for support at the 200MA (currently 2680). 2700/2800 is the sweet spot I'm looking to hit. That brings us down between the .786 & .886 fibs of the entire cycle, which has historically has been a strong reversal fib zone for Bitcoin . If price does hit ~2800 it will probably just wick into that level like lightning & bounce back to 5/6k levels quickly & then bounce in between. This will create some incredibly trading opportunities if you're prepared!
Good luck out there & trade safe!
As of today, I believe we are tracking towards a top closer to 200K - & at this rate we would hit that before the end of April. Long way to go but the important thing is she's looking good & strong, with a lot of upside left. About half way there on the parabolic journey.
Long live Bitcoin!