Using the Fibonacci bubbles, we can clearly identify the tops of the last three market cycles with staggering accuracy at the 3.618.
Also, although there are only two data points at our disposal for cycle lengths, we can see that the last two cycles are increasing in length by ~60%.
Using the above method, this would indicate a market cycle peak of around 230k in April 2024. And just for fun, I drew another bubble to have a guess what the market cycle after this one will top out at - 1.3M.
Posting this to keep an eye on how this tracks. Very interesting as it currently stands at the very least
It makes no sense market top would be around the next halving. You're a year or more off.
rallan1089
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@btaylorrunner, Can you explain to me why the next market top would be in any way coupled with the halving's, when the data is literally in front of you showing no correlation whatsoever? Crypto markets are getting longer, and returns are diminishing, it's how markets evolve.
btaylorrunner
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@rallan1089, I understand that. The halving is what typically initiates the bull market. We would need time to actually be in a bear market before the halving. The longest this cycle will go is Q1/Q2 of 2023. Check out Alessio Rastani, he's a great economist and he's saying the window for the crypto bubble to pop is October of this year to June '23 max.
rallan1089
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@btaylorrunner, I think the point we're both missing is that there's not a single person in the world who knows when this thing will pop. I just thought this looked interesting and I will be tracking it :)
FlowersFor
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Didint work like that... Simple human brain calculations..
rallan1089
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@FlowersFor, "just for fun". Please don't take life so seriously :)