j0nesy1977.mj

BTCUSD - When to Buy in? Has the Down Trend Completed

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I've been putting off having to do this analysis as BTC             is so hard to predict right now. But I'm looking to buy back in at some stage so I have to give it a shot.

As you can see from the Bullish Dominant candle, BTC             found some very solid support at $8000. That is no surprise given there is some historical support there and given some of the tips floating around here and the broader investment community.

I still think the signals a very mixed there are bullish and bearish signs all over the place. BTC             is still in a down trend phase but the difficulty is determining when it will break. I can see 2 symmetrical triangle and 2 descending triangle . The inner 2 are nearing completion. The trick will be to see which way they move at completion of each of the inner 2. If they all both move up and there's some more good bullish signals then I'm likely buying in. I don't want to go against the momentum of the market just yet.

As for the outer two triangle, I will use them to give me some targets and a stop loss should BTC             break out of the inner two. But it does mean that BTC             may not be out of the woods for some time yet.

The short answer is I'm still waiting to buy-in and I'm not sure the down trend has completed.
Comment: I think we will learn a lot about what BTC is going to do on Monday, when US trading picks up after the weekend (in approx. 24hrs time).

I was trying to look for an upside in this idea, but ended up remaining neutral. There are small signs of an upside but, in truth, there is just as much if not more down side signs.

If BTC falls below the $8000 then it has a lot further to go. However, I still believe that there's a chance it may break upwards from the inner triangle. If it does so with some volume then we may see a recovery.

Still, all in all I'm neutral tending bearish. If I were going to buy in I'd be setting tight stop-losses. I'm not brave enough to short it either.
Comment: Moment of truth for BTC, let's see if it falls bellow the 8K major support line. I think it will.
Comment: Well as I predicted it broke the 8K support line and looks like breaking out of the decending triangle. Next stop is 7K based on the bottom of the H&S pattern below.

Comment: Well there you go it hit the big support line on my chart at 5.9k and bounced back off hard. This could be the recovery we are looking for. Have a look at the volume on the bounce.
Comment: Good recovery as predicted in my last update but could not break the longer term down trend. It will be interesting to see if it tests and breaks it in the coming days or whether it will bounce back of and from a H&S pattern which would see us fall further.
Trade closed manually: I'm closing this idea it has served me really well helping me to buy near the bottom (I think). I've opened a new one in an attempt to speculate on the up side.
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