This update will be brief before a larger update once we get lower. It's no surprise that we are going lower, is it? On this smaller time frame it's confirmed that we formed a bear flag and we are now hitting the lower support turned resistance of the flag. I would imagine that we will continue down from this point.
From my previous updates I have been calling this thing to go down since around 9.5k. On the larger time frames we are starting to get into oversold territory and we are getting close to our buy zone.
I will be looking to start laddering buys down near this 7k area.
Happy trading,
-Sherem
recent call :
Calls identifying the moves down:
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If we extend our line out you can see it's held up nicely as resistance. since we aren't getting any type of rebound and I am not confident in a larger bounce yet. All though some of these indicators on the 4hr and 6 hr are turning up a bit. It's really hard to say what type of move we will get over the holiday weekend. I would imagine it would be something like a slow steady move down. Maybe the move down comes sooner because we don't have volume? It seems like it's going to continue down, it's just how it does, is the question.
Of course if we are looking to get any sort of sustained move to the upside, we'll watch this $7,600 level.
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Per my last update we have been slowing drifting down breaking lows on smaller time frames and it looks like we will get more of a move down before we get a move up. I will do a major update once we bottom out a little more or get a bounce.
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and as an FYI at this point I want to wait to see how this forms up more. I am comfortable putting buys down at 6600, but not necessarily 7100 at the moment. It looks like it will just drift past that at this point. keep in mind risk management and martingale strategies when you are putting buys in place
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On my original chart we had identified 7100 as a minor support point, which looks like it held up well and we got a solid bounce. If you are playing the bounce you will notice that we are now at this resistance point as well as kinda hitting this trendline. While I think it will go down still from the larger time frames, I like this price action, it's a good sign of consolidation or that shorts are getting nervous.
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We are forming this bull flag on this btc and I think it's worth taking a trade to the upside. Been mindful of risk management. I will be structuring this as a long play that could swing lower so I am looking to hold on to it a bit, but it's looking like it will push up.
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Going Long Martingale style, make sure you read up on it if you don't know what it is! -
Why do you think 6600 is the next support? I honestly dont see any considerable volume there. It could easily break and go all the way to 4k
Thanks for the analysis
Sherem
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@kash27, Yes, we should at least get a bounce off of that area. At least that's the spot that has the highest probability I would imagine we would get a major bounce off of. all of the other charts are falling in line for a bounce off those lows as well
kash27
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@Sherem, its almost impossible to know where the bottom is and when we'll get there. But do you have any thoughts on those?
Sherem
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@kash27, A temp bottom or absolute bottom? 6.5k should be a temporary one, but i will still be martingaling my positions in just in case we go lower
kash27
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@Sherem, the absolute bottom. Looking from jan I dont see btc having put in a fifth wave down, and I see it bottoming somewhere from 3700 to high 4k. I was hoping we would see a bounce or a sideways move up to 9k before the fall, but right now it seems like its going all the way there
Sherem
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@kash27, probably 4k somewhere, some are saying 3k. But even then I wouldn't want to call it an absolute bottom. I would imagine that would be a great long term entry point, but if we don't get follow through to the upside, it wouldn't be an "absolute" bottom.
I still think we may get a bounce up to 8-8.5k before it falls, and I will be trading it as such but it could just march right on down.
kash27
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@Sherem, The market is heavily manipulated so it could move in either direction at any point. But I have my doubts about seeing 20k anytime soon. I hope we go past that this year, its been so bearish for months now
Sherem
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@kash27, The last bear market lasted 2 years. Don't expect to hit the ATH any time soon, imo.
Bitcpd027
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solid post. I too agree with 7k buying starts, although you have slightly different TA than me...I think a couple of weeks or so back people ignored most everyone who said this would be happening. Now some of them are freaking out... But this was always a solid possibility.
Thanks for the analysis