Since Bitcoin 0.07% 0.08% broke the 6500ish, my objective view changed from to 50/50. If we break the 6800 with i really favor the bulls for the coming period. My subjective view has been for a while now, past 2 months. For a while i was expecting that Bitcoin 0.07% 0.08% would make a big V shape drop below the 6000, but so far it has not happened. But instead, the alt market did make those panic lows, V shape lows. Many of them are half way to complete the V shape. So in my view, the coming week or 2 will be very important for this market.
For now, you can see a solid in the making, which still gives room for a drop to 6600ish. If we see the price turning up again there with some , we can expect a rally towards the 7100, assuming the 6800/6850 will break WITH . If this happens, my target for 9K prices will become very realistic. I am not predicting the end of the bear market here, just a mid-term possible prediction based on what i am seeing lately.
If the 6600ish breaks, it will invalid the and the short term momentum will be gone and will turn slightly in favor of the bears again above the 6500. If this support breaks as well, we can still find support around the 6200/6300, but i won't give it a big chance it will. Because than we will probably see that red line (from my previous analysis) play out. Because it would mean we will see another significant lower high, from 8500/7400/6800. Failing to reach the blue resistance line, which will be a very weak sign and confirming the weakness of the market (if the 6200/6000 breaks)
So for now, the 6600ish has to hold to keep the optimal view in play. If that level breaks, things change already but it wont be over. Below the 6500ish, i believe the bears will take control again.
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Previous analysis, i can recommend to read it (if you have not read it already)
The first drop would have already fit the picture of that last drop to test the bull flag, but there is stil some room left on the downside.
With the exception of a fast wick down, the current level needs to hold for my very bullish view to be in play. What does stick out now, bitmex price being the most bullish. Bitmex had the lowest price for almost 2 months. Can’t say yet if it really has meaning or not, but like I said, it sticks out.
Goal for the bulls is to get above the 6710/6730. If they can manage that, the chances will be good to see more follow through. So far the resistance of that triangle showed it’s weight, that resistance needs to break. So the coming hours will be important
I also see some lame as spoofing on Finex, don't know if they are trying to push it down or trying to hold it to close shorts (open shorts continue to close, check my open short/long analysis for this)
It is normal for slow sideways movement within a flag, but it should not take too long. So i want to see a decision withing 24H.
The red line scenario which i showed in my previous analysis is becoming much more likely now. As long as we don't see a good bounce after a drop this could just go on and on. Momentum is clearly in favor of the bears at the moment, but objectively the price is is still around a neutral zone, because making a higher low here is still possible. Seems the 6400ish is a small support for now, but from the looks of it might break as well.
1) Are we in a descending triangle ?
This is a bearish pattern 64%. This means there are 64% chances we break down.
In 2014 we had same pattern - we broke up for a short period of time - only to go lower later.
2) If we are not in a descending triangle then are we maybe in a big descending wedge which is a bullish pattern ?
Lets use logic.
Please. I need people who know and understand what im talking about here.
I think its time based on TA to know aprox what is going to happen.
OR !! can a descending triangle be a bullish pattern ?
Thank you guys !
I aplreciate a lot what you do.
Sometimes i see you are just so afraid of exposing your personal opinion based on your experience ..
We are all.people who can make mistakes.
But ur exp can help us a lot !