Until December, BTC had never broken the top trend line (dotted) which always managed to curb the ATHs. After Dec, that line was broken and we saw 19500.
Since early this week, BTC traded below that line and it is now serving as the new resistance, which is now forming a double top.
Right now MACD in the 1h chart is crossing downwards and I expect BTC to test the lower edge of the BBs. 10750 is a level to watch, but depending on the volume we could even go lower overnight. It will depend on the Asian market. Potential for a short position with trailing stops.
This is in line with what is happening in China now. 20th January is a deadline for many things. I think we will see 9k retest.
Also, BTC ETF is probably not happening now. Please read the SEC cryptocurrency related news released today. Once people become aware of it, we will see sell offs.
The buy volume has been so low for the past 3 days that this one looks like a true 'dead cat bounce' to me.
Don't take my word for it though. I have been wrong before.
rafabeton
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@doctorkesh, thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts.
I will watch 20th Jan closely. Also, the CME futures will expire on 26th Jan, will be interesting to see what direction BTC goes to.
In terms of the SEC news, will google it. The volume had a peak overnight, and we see BTC price breaking through the resistance line again. Could this be leading to another bull run or is it a bull trap?
Right now BTC is finding resistance in the fib retracement level 50%, or 12700. Let's watch this closely.
People here criticize me for following the news. My answer is simple. BTC rose based on 'news'. Segwit, hard fork, CME/CBOE. BTC fell on bad news - China exchange ban, China mining ban, ongoing South Korea fiasco and others.
In the beginning of 2017, BTC's price fell sharply after ETF application refusal by the Winklevoss twins. Either CBOE will quietly withdraw the application or SEC will refuse it.
I think BTC will go in the background eventually. The ones which will succeed will be ETH, NEO, XRP and IOTA. Others like QTUM may hover up and down. But we will probably see BTC in a min-term bear market lasting at least several weeks.
Also, BTC ETF is probably not happening now. Please read the SEC cryptocurrency related news released today. Once people become aware of it, we will see sell offs.
The buy volume has been so low for the past 3 days that this one looks like a true 'dead cat bounce' to me.
Don't take my word for it though. I have been wrong before.