Peymana71
Long

Yellow,Blue or Red?What will happend for BTC???

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi,Welcome to my analyse about Bitcoin Feuture.
Two month ago i published an idea about BTC that said why we are expect to BTC change trend to Bullish in this short time.after Two month we saw that Btc could not change trend and break limits that controlling it.
So me and 2 of my expert co-workers decided to open this situation and explain it simple to community of Crypto World.As always i have to say this analyse made by our mind an knowledge and have a good chance to be wrong,so precaution to use this for your trades.
Let's open this Quickly.we illustrated 3 of most possible scenarios and will explain to you.Yellow one,Blue one and Red.Neither of these scenarios are full bearish because we are believe that BTC is in a huge channel from 2015 and we are now move to bottom of that channel and we will stay in bullish trend until we drop out of the channel.all these scenarios imagined ways to reach our last al time high and much better goals after that.
Yellow Scenario

This Scenario illustrated based on channel that Started from 15.8.2015 that we believe market released from pressure that 2014 correction on that period.we made a channel and moved in bottom of this bullish channel to 23.3.2017.in this date we started a parabolic super bullish movement that reached us to the top this channel,better to say made a roof for this channel.after 2017 all time high in Dec we started to move back to the channel bottom.we believe in yellow scenario that we need to touch the bottom and move along it for a while and then start another parabolic trend to the top of channel.

During the parabolic trend and correction that started from JAN,we made a Triangle Formation that have much similarities to Descending Triangle but this triangle don't have requirements for that pattern but usually this formations move in way of consolidation of trend that they are in it,so because of downward trend that we started from JAN we think this formation guide us to the bottom of the channel.

We think we are in middle of making another Impact to that triangle bottom.It is possible that we drop from this impact to the bottom of channel or making another waves and impacts to the triangle(red,orange arrows).

This Triangle aim to some place between $3800-5000.if this scenario go right we will move whie along of bottom line of the trend or bounce up after we touch that or close to it.this scenario contains of lowest price we can imagined for BTC .

we used elliott waves and fibo rules to make sure that it can occur in near future.in fibo retrace we will have 78.60% retrace in $4372 and touch the bottom of the channel.
Blue Scenario

This Scenario have a little chance to win.Our channel in this scenario started from the early points of parabolic bullish trend in late days of last july.It's usually impossible to make a channel in the middle of one wave and we need few points to reaching the bottom of this channel.$7800ish is the bottom of this channel now.

we made another triangle with this channel too.if this channel is our main channel we need to break the triangle to up and make our way to the roof and free of this triangle prison.

Like what i said in yellow scenario we can break this triangle to down side.this can make our yellow Scenario more real and have good chance to occur.
Red Scenario

This Scenario say that we are not in a long term channel from 2017 but we made a new upward channel from march after that horrible drop .we made another confimation after late $10000 touch and we are in way of bottom touch.
forgot to say that MACD and RSI both confirmed that we are in the way down.
Comment:
we can to continue our way in this channel and move between bottom and top of that but we need to get rid of that triangle formation(black dotted line) that i told before,first.
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We can see red scenario in different way.this point of view kind a another part of yellow scenario and say if our triangle formation don't work like as we exept, we can move along red channel for long term and this way reach us to point that make an impact with yellow channel finally.It's odd and have a little chance to occur.
Comment: I forgot to excuse all of you,my readers for my low skill in typing english,my Mother tongue is Persian,hope you understand well my idea.ask please if you have any trouble.
Thanks you for reading my idea,i try to update it in good order.
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As you can see all of our last move from 6800 made a big H&S that aim $7000ish and will make another attack to our triangle.
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We didn't like to share this part of our long term analyse but it's better to show you,maybe we are wrong and you can help us.lol
as you can see we made a gigantic Ascending Wedge Pattern from early days of BTC market in 2012 till now.It's little scary to see this wedge aim some where in 2022 year.yeah right,the year that many people hope BTC reach to $500000 or $1000000,So optimistic.But we predicted a super horrible crash for that date or soner from this wedge that will remain in history forever.
Comment: forgot to say this.The long trend line from 2012,confirm yellow Scenario too.btc $4000.
Comment: But guys don't worry now,we have many years to making more money from this madness.
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I saw that one of best TAs in Iran,MR Sabalani,have an idea about btc next move and imagined like this chart.realy i did not understand it well,he deny triangels and think we will make another high near $11.5k from here and then we start main falling to $4000 area.share it with you,maybe help
Comment:
As you can see we had an attack to the bottom of our blue channel.It's time of truth.if we break the blue channel and go some where below $7750,blue channel will loose and make our work easier.our H&S worked right till now but we expect lower price with this formation.
Comment:
How much i believe that Wedges formations in BTC market aren't reliable but i can't deny that we made a Falling Wedge from $10k till now and this formations in healthy markets is usually a bullish pattern.i illustrate how this formation can works out with our scenarios in this chart.
Comment: Ok.we break our blue channel and made an impact to our wedge.now we want to see that price can back to the blue channel or not.
And let's back to our wedge.we moved along just what expected.
Comment: We are testing the wedge.need to reach 7800 now.
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BTC need to move along blue arrow but bear flag that we formed last 24hr made a chance to drop more with red arrow.
Comment: red arrow will turn market into hell and investor will scare more and stops cause market drop even further.
Comment:
Rsi in 4H time frame reach to lows of feb and there is sign of a reversal,but weak.

in 1D time frame we saw a low credit reversal sign too but we need to see price bounce or make a meaningful movement.
Comment: we couldn't see a reversal in MACD.in situations like this rsi signal turn more unreliable.
Comment:
I think this is most possible scenario.we are in middle of making a triangle at the end of bear flag,if this formation don't turn to wedge it seems we will make a bounce to 8800.
Comment: in any case market seems too weak and volume not good.any thing can occur in this market.
Comment:
btc made another impact to triangle roof andd it's in way of testing bottom now.
Comment:
moving just like what we draw with blue arrow.
Caution.as we told before this triangle formations are not reliable in this market and all of this formation can formed just to recover RSI a little and after that we can continue to drop more.wait for a confirmation of break out of this situation,then enter TRADE.
Comment: Have to add this too,we have not any reliable MACD reversal sign,but in 1HR we have a break and in 2hr at least an attempt for reversal.
Comment:
Right now we saw a reaction to our wedge bottom that started from $10000.It can be a sign for we are in attempt to start another upward swing in this wedge to 7800-8000.
Comment:
we made another impact,It's obviously a war between that resistance and market.
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Finally we broke it in 5th attemt.
Comment: know we need an impact to our wedge roof.that attempt will show us what will happen.4k or 9k?
Comment:
Something like this.
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Another H&S after that invers one.wait to see that it break the channel down or not?
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As you can see that H&S moved back us to our triangle and that support break easily.all these are signs for Bear Flag formation.
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Weakness that we saw in market caused btc drop out again from our wedge and bear flag confirmed almost.
Comment: If we come back from here again to wedge,it's sign that our wedge bottom line draw wrong and it must be a wider wedge more like a simple downward channel.
Comment:
Something like this.
Comment: I am out of my work place for next 6 12 hours and really can't make a chart with mobile.like what i said brfore we expected to see at least small bounce but market made flash drop without any suitable bounce.now with that small bounce we made a little bull flag at the end od huge bear flag.it is not a reliable sign and in the best way can complet our swing to 7800_8000 but everything can change when we can realize well how we reach that goals.flash upward can change everything.
And something else,We made a reversal in MACD 1 2 3 hr and little signs in 4h.
Comment:
Hi,I'm back.
Sorry for the late update but guys there was not any really movement that need an update,we are in our way that i posted before.as we predicted we move slowly for our triangle bottom,i predict somewhere between 6900-7000 and after that we need a strong reversal or few days of holding that support.for now we did a good effort to hold 7200 but low it wan not a good launch pad for new upward.
as you can see our channel since $10000 loose its reliability but we moving along it yet.i dont have any hope for continue in this way and i think we will drop out of it like red arrow but we have a chance to make more swings in this channel like blue arrow and orange one but orange one need more chance to even possible,but also need to know that when we are in low volume situation,everything turn possible and easier and we are in weekend so it's better we stay out of trade and wait for a good reasons.
Also MACD and RSI have not good signs.
I will update as soon as i see any signs or good movement.
Good Luck
Comment: Prude to my team,check our updats from few days ago,we predicted even this boring sideway at may 24 update.just fantastic,give us a like,it's nothing but really make me and my team happier and fresh. ;))
Comment: Our latest chart from yesterday still in play,as you can see we are in the way of completing 2 blue arrow with another boring sideway,this sidways make us confuse and can really said which way it will go finally,exact.but as soon as we see a sign,will post it.
Good Luck my friends.
Comment: Forget to say,
After less than one week of our serious activity in TV,you bring us to top authors section.thanks you all my friends,it is a great encouragement for us guys,you prove this to us that we are on the right track.
Hope we can play a great rule to helping traders to loose less and learn more,
THANKS YOU AGAIN
Best Regards
PEYMAN A
Comment: Still we moving as we peridicted,2 blue arrows of last chart achieved.we have bearish reversal on MACD and market is weaker than i thought,we need to break 7200 support and reach prices that more money and voulome enter to the market again.
Comment:
As you can see we made falling wedge with our last movments.i can't predict where it aim and when we bounce from it but i can guess that we are near of the bottom.i will monitoring it and find a good spot for enter to the market.
We have MACD bullish crossover in short time frames and sign of reversal in MACD 4H.
All signs show me that we will have a bounce at 6950-7050 area but dont know yet where it can move us.
Comment: Unfortunately we break out of our wedge and as soon as we touched $7060,came back to test to test that wedge support as a resistances but again unfortunately market show us weakness again.it seems there is not any taboo in going down yet,no limits yet.lol.we need to to came back to the wedge or reach lower supports to see some strength again.
I post this update little late because to see how this break out work,is is fame one on not,but know i doubt it was a fake one.
Cautiou now,my friends.
Comment: Sorry bad typing,mean Caution.
Comment: I have few msj that people asked what the meaning when you say market is weak?is that mean we falling more?i want to open this,when i said that i did not mean we drop more,market weaknees in my opinion is that we have weak momentum for bearish or bulish.what try to say is that we are stick in place and do not have power to move anywhere easy.we need to reach a huge support or resistance to make a good pressure in buy or sell side,after that when we charge strength can make a good momentum for break the walls and continue our way.
As i predicted we have a good support around $7050 but low volume caused btc can't bounce huge from there,but i think we will make our way to at least 7250 and after that in that resistance area we can earn our bearish momentum that helped btc dropped lower around $6950.I think in that support area we can see a good bounce,don't forget about market psychological decisions that all waiting for price to reach there.
I come back soon
Good Luck
Comment: Guys that wasn't chance,that was what a TA about.
As i said we saw a rally over $7250 and know we reach our wedge resistance line at $7400.there is a attack between resistance and price and we stay here with good strength.we need to stay above $7350 for continuing this fight,if we break this resistance we will reach our old downward trendline from 10k resistance at $7800-7900.but you need to calm down and focus till we break that,otherwise all current rally can be a bull trap and as i said i last update,we will continue dropping to $6900.
I have to add this too,we have a bullish reversal in our MACD and even sign of reversal in MACD D time frame,but still need to caution but if you want to enter trade don't forget stop near $7249.
Comment:
last update chart.
Comment: Zoom out to understand better where we are now in our Scenarios.
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Comment:
One of other signs that shows we reach $7800 is that we made our bull flag exactly at the break of ichimuku cloud in 1h time frame.usally i use ichimuku break out in 4h time frame but in 1hr time frame,you can find signs too.
Comment: Guys ,i moved my stop to $7320 to save my profit from my entry lvl at $7080.still i have much hope to break 7500 resistance and reach upper lvls but always caution is good.
Comment:
Bull Flag still perfect,maybe we drop a little but we will aim for upper targets after that.
Comment: As you can see we have a strong resistance around $7550 still.we made a iH&S to break that but still nothing.
Comment: Maybe our inverse turn to a H&S,not a prefect one but it can make btc to touch bottom of bull flag again.
Comment: Guys,i know it.this is a really ugly and odd H&S.lol
Comment:
But it worked,righ in time.
Comment: Guys just look at our two days ago analyse on ETH,when all people here talk about doomsdays and hell.hope BTC don't ruin this.
Comment: Today 12 people msj me and said about trade that enter with me last day,all of them enter between 7100 to 7150.not much points to here but they were really happy and made me happy too.i never experienced something like that and i am very happy and thanks god for that but this experience made me thought about what happened if i was wrong and they lost money?This is really a great responsibility and because of that i promise to work harder and more accurate,hope god and you guys help me in this way.
anyway,i am still in my trade but one time i sold at 7550 and rebuy again at 7460.that was a risky trade and i did not wrote it here.after that i moved my stop to 7400 too.
Good Luck
come back soon
Comment:
It can be an iH&S here.
Comment: IH&S failed badly.i just moved my stop to 7350 again
Comment:
That was H&S that i did not notice.sorry guys
Comment:
Thats push us lower,we must don't go lower that 7350,where my stop sit.
Comment: So my stop hit and i sold out.if we go lower than 7300 it's really hard to come back.
Comment: we are testing our last channel as support now
Comment:
we need to hold blue line as support.
Comment:
Hi guys
As you can see we made Rising Wedge with our movement from 2 days ago,if we manage to reach our downward channel roof with this wedge i pretty sure that we will drop immediately after touch that but if we break this wedge and reach there maybe we can break it and finish wave from 10k.
let's analyse short time frames.i saw signs in MACD that said we will drop again to test this wedge bottom and maybe more like yesterday but after few hours it recovered and show good signs again.as you know my stop hit yesterday at 7350 and after that i entered again at 7300,and add a stop around 7340.
i will come back soon if see signs to share.
Good Luck
Comment: I forgot to say this,Wedges are most unreliable patterns in cryoto market.do not count on them.i think our moves will be like what i draw on chart.
Comment: My last chart is still in play, i sold at 7590 and manage to enter again around 8400.
Comment: As you can see we reached the bottom again exactly like last chart and i filled around 7414.i have stop around my entry lvl now.
Comment: I see a lot of weakness here,as much as we go up ,btc becomes weaker and i'm sure we will drop again out of this wedge then maybe we can finish this downward from 10k.
Comment: So we dropped out of that wedge finally.now we need to found a new launch pad tp break 7600.
Comment:
Guys it's really soon to show you this but it can come true.do't count on it it's just a uncooked guess.
Comment: Bad signs in all time frames MACD,waitnig for going lower,again it must not go below 7250.
Comment:
Here we are,MOMENT of TRUTH.are we gonna break downward trendline?so we have ichimoku buy signal in short time frames and we enterd ichi in 4h time frame,if we break the trendline we will break ichi too,all eyes on monitors now.last night i thought we going lower but time correction made our indicators recovered and we did not see a correction in price.i enterd again at 7500 with 1hr ichimuko break out and have a stop around 7430.
Good Luck
hope we see a bounce soon
Comment: i will make a new Idea as soon as we break that line or not,Time to say good bye to this huge idea.
Comment:
Guys i forgot this,i posted it yesterday and now see it,It really deserved a like guys.
Comment: MacD shows us now that we are in first steps of completing our right shoulder,just relax till 7500.lol
Comment:
So for now we need to MACD recovery and crossover to completing right shoulder.
MACD in day time frame is near to crossover.it can easily move us to 8200-8500.
i'm in middle of making new idea,soon
Comment: NEW IDEA ready.hope can help all you my friends,please like to spread this idea in TV and help other people to know us.
Good Luck every one,see you in new post.
Comment: Update idea
Yes, red channel it is indeed...
Reply
At 7374 in a matter of minutes. I think towards 6k is finally going to happen.

Also, you can make more Ideas for short-term updates. This one is macro based on the initial chart. We will subscribe to the new ones. This is the longest thread I have ever seen. =)
Reply
Peymana71 AetherMass
@AetherMass, Realu i never had a goal to publish lot ideas and make popularity,instead of that i want to make any detail good analyse to help with that to others.i will make a new idea if btc change the base trend or break my long term prediction in this idea or maybe take this idea to new post.lol,i'm new here and did not expect feedbacks that i got in last 2 weeks.
anyway,tnx to reading this long idea
Reply
AetherMass Peymana71
@Peymana71, TV members clearly like your work -- as do I. Thanks for posting in any capacity.
Reply
Peymana71 AetherMass
@AetherMass, You're welcome my friend
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You mean it will rise to 10k and drop again?
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@Nagat, No,reach to about 7800 and then drop again.
Reply
Nagat Peymana71
@Peymana71, sorry I don't know how to read chart at all. Please to what price will it drop?
Reply
@Nagat, soon to predict that
Reply
Nagat Peymana71
@Peymana71, OK thanks a lot
Reply
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