Two month ago i published an idea about BTC that said why we are expect to BTC change trend to in this short time.after Two month we saw that Btc could not change trend and break limits that controlling it.
So me and 2 of my expert co-workers decided to open this situation and explain it simple to community of Crypto World.As always i have to say this analyse made by our mind an knowledge and have a good chance to be wrong,so precaution to use this for your trades.
Let's open this Quickly.we illustrated 3 of most possible scenarios and will explain to you.Yellow one,Blue one and Red.Neither of these scenarios are full because we are believe that BTC is in a huge channel from 2015 and we are now move to bottom of that channel and we will stay in until we drop out of the channel.all these scenarios imagined ways to reach our last al time high and much better goals after that.
This Scenario illustrated based on channel that Started from 15.8.2015 that we believe market released from pressure that 2014 correction on that period.we made a channel and moved in bottom of this to 23.3.2017.in this date we started a parabolic super movement that reached us to the top this channel,better to say made a roof for this channel.after 2017 all time high in Dec we started to move back to the channel bottom.we believe in yellow scenario that we need to touch the bottom and move along it for a while and then start another parabolic trend to the top of channel.
During the parabolic trend and correction that started from JAN,we made a Triangle Formation that have much similarities to but this triangle don't have requirements for that pattern but usually this formations move in way of consolidation of trend that they are in it,so because of downward trend that we started from JAN we think this formation guide us to the bottom of the channel.
We think we are in middle of making another Impact to that triangle bottom.It is possible that we drop from this impact to the bottom of channel or making another waves and impacts to the triangle(red,orange arrows).
This Triangle aim to some place between $3800-5000.if this scenario go right we will move whie along of bottom line of the trend or bounce up after we touch that or close to it.this scenario contains of lowest price we can imagined for BTC .
we used and fibo rules to make sure that it can occur in near future.in fibo retrace we will have 78.60% retrace in $4372 and touch the bottom of the channel.
This Scenario have a little chance to win.Our channel in this scenario started from the early points of parabolic in late days of last july.It's usually impossible to make a channel in the middle of one wave and we need few points to reaching the bottom of this channel.$7800ish is the bottom of this channel now.
we made another triangle with this channel too.if this channel is our main channel we need to break the triangle to up and make our way to the roof and free of this triangle prison.
Like what i said in yellow scenario we can break this triangle to down side.this can make our yellow Scenario more real and have good chance to occur.
This Scenario say that we are not in a long term channel from 2017 but we made a new upward channel from march after that horrible drop .we made another confimation after late $10000 touch and we are in way of bottom touch.
forgot to say that and both confirmed that we are in the way down.
we can to continue our way in this channel and move between bottom and top of that but we need to get rid of that triangle formation(black dotted line) that i told before,first.
We can see red scenario in different way.this point of view kind a another part of yellow scenario and say if our triangle formation don't work like as we exept, we can move along red channel for long term and this way reach us to point that make an impact with yellow channel finally.It's odd and have a little chance to occur.
Thanks you for reading my idea,i try to update it in good order.
As you can see all of our last move from 6800 made a big H&S that aim $7000ish and will make another attack to our triangle.
We didn't like to share this part of our long term analyse but it's better to show you,maybe we are wrong and you can help us.lol
as you can see we made a gigantic Ascending Wedge Pattern from early days of BTC market in 2012 till now.It's little scary to see this wedge aim some where in 2022 year.yeah right,the year that many people hope BTC reach to $500000 or $1000000,So optimistic.But we predicted a super horrible crash for that date or soner from this wedge that will remain in history forever.
I saw that one of best TAs in Iran,MR Sabalani,have an idea about btc next move and imagined like this chart.realy i did not understand it well,he deny triangels and think we will make another high near $11.5k from here and then we start main falling to $4000 area.share it with you,maybe help
As you can see we had an attack to the bottom of our blue channel.It's time of truth.if we break the blue channel and go some where below $7750,blue channel will loose and make our work easier.our H&S worked right till now but we expect lower price with this formation.
How much i believe that Wedges formations in BTC market aren't reliable but i can't deny that we made a Falling Wedge from $10k till now and this formations in healthy markets is usually a bullish pattern.i illustrate how this formation can works out with our scenarios in this chart.
And let's back to our wedge.we moved along just what expected.
BTC need to move along blue arrow but bear flag that we formed last 24hr made a chance to drop more with red arrow.
Rsi in 4H time frame reach to lows of feb and there is sign of a reversal,but weak.
in 1D time frame we saw a low credit reversal sign too but we need to see price bounce or make a meaningful movement.
I think this is most possible scenario.we are in middle of making a triangle at the end of bear flag,if this formation don't turn to wedge it seems we will make a bounce to 8800.
btc made another impact to triangle roof andd it's in way of testing bottom now.
moving just like what we draw with blue arrow.
Caution.as we told before this triangle formations are not reliable in this market and all of this formation can formed just to recover RSI a little and after that we can continue to drop more.wait for a confirmation of break out of this situation,then enter TRADE.
Right now we saw a reaction to our wedge bottom that started from $10000.It can be a sign for we are in attempt to start another upward swing in this wedge to 7800-8000.
we made another impact,It's obviously a war between that resistance and market.
Finally we broke it in 5th attemt.
Something like this.
Another H&S after that invers one.wait to see that it break the channel down or not?
As you can see that H&S moved back us to our triangle and that support break easily.all these are signs for Bear Flag formation.
Weakness that we saw in market caused btc drop out again from our wedge and bear flag confirmed almost.
Something like this.
And something else,We made a reversal in MACD 1 2 3 hr and little signs in 4h.
Sorry for the late update but guys there was not any really movement that need an update,we are in our way that i posted before.as we predicted we move slowly for our triangle bottom,i predict somewhere between 6900-7000 and after that we need a strong reversal or few days of holding that support.for now we did a good effort to hold 7200 but low it wan not a good launch pad for new upward.
as you can see our channel since $10000 loose its reliability but we moving along it yet.i dont have any hope for continue in this way and i think we will drop out of it like red arrow but we have a chance to make more swings in this channel like blue arrow and orange one but orange one need more chance to even possible,but also need to know that when we are in low volume situation,everything turn possible and easier and we are in weekend so it's better we stay out of trade and wait for a good reasons.
Also MACD and RSI have not good signs.
I will update as soon as i see any signs or good movement.
Good Luck my friends.
After less than one week of our serious activity in TV,you bring us to top authors section.thanks you all my friends,it is a great encouragement for us guys,you prove this to us that we are on the right track.
Hope we can play a great rule to helping traders to loose less and learn more,
THANKS YOU AGAIN
As you can see we made falling wedge with our last movments.i can't predict where it aim and when we bounce from it but i can guess that we are near of the bottom.i will monitoring it and find a good spot for enter to the market.
We have MACD bullish crossover in short time frames and sign of reversal in MACD 4H.
All signs show me that we will have a bounce at 6950-7050 area but dont know yet where it can move us.
I post this update little late because to see how this break out work,is is fame one on not,but know i doubt it was a fake one.
Cautiou now,my friends.
As i predicted we have a good support around $7050 but low volume caused btc can't bounce huge from there,but i think we will make our way to at least 7250 and after that in that resistance area we can earn our bearish momentum that helped btc dropped lower around $6950.I think in that support area we can see a good bounce,don't forget about market psychological decisions that all waiting for price to reach there.
I come back soon
As i said we saw a rally over $7250 and know we reach our wedge resistance line at $7400.there is a attack between resistance and price and we stay here with good strength.we need to stay above $7350 for continuing this fight,if we break this resistance we will reach our old downward trendline from 10k resistance at $7800-7900.but you need to calm down and focus till we break that,otherwise all current rally can be a bull trap and as i said i last update,we will continue dropping to $6900.
I have to add this too,we have a bullish reversal in our MACD and even sign of reversal in MACD D time frame,but still need to caution but if you want to enter trade don't forget stop near $7249.
last update chart.
One of other signs that shows we reach $7800 is that we made our bull flag exactly at the break of ichimuku cloud in 1h time frame.usally i use ichimuku break out in 4h time frame but in 1hr time frame,you can find signs too.
Bull Flag still perfect,maybe we drop a little but we will aim for upper targets after that.
But it worked,righ in time.
anyway,i am still in my trade but one time i sold at 7550 and rebuy again at 7460.that was a risky trade and i did not wrote it here.after that i moved my stop to 7400 too.
come back soon
It can be an iH&S here.
That was H&S that i did not notice.sorry guys
Thats push us lower,we must don't go lower that 7350,where my stop sit.
we need to hold blue line as support.
As you can see we made Rising Wedge with our movement from 2 days ago,if we manage to reach our downward channel roof with this wedge i pretty sure that we will drop immediately after touch that but if we break this wedge and reach there maybe we can break it and finish wave from 10k.
let's analyse short time frames.i saw signs in MACD that said we will drop again to test this wedge bottom and maybe more like yesterday but after few hours it recovered and show good signs again.as you know my stop hit yesterday at 7350 and after that i entered again at 7300,and add a stop around 7340.
i will come back soon if see signs to share.
Guys it's really soon to show you this but it can come true.do't count on it it's just a uncooked guess.
Here we are,MOMENT of TRUTH.are we gonna break downward trendline?so we have ichimoku buy signal in short time frames and we enterd ichi in 4h time frame,if we break the trendline we will break ichi too,all eyes on monitors now.last night i thought we going lower but time correction made our indicators recovered and we did not see a correction in price.i enterd again at 7500 with 1hr ichimuko break out and have a stop around 7430.
hope we see a bounce soon
Guys i forgot this,i posted it yesterday and now see it,It really deserved a like guys.
So for now we need to MACD recovery and crossover to completing right shoulder.
MACD in day time frame is near to crossover.it can easily move us to 8200-8500.
i'm in middle of making new idea,soon
Good Luck every one,see you in new post.
anyway,tnx to reading this long idea