CRInvestor

BTC (Finex) at a bit of a crossroads (15m perspective)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
547 13 4
Hello all,
On the heels of some dramatic price action of late, it is both encouraging and interesting to see the broader Bitcoin community come alive again with activity. Interest in learning Technical analysis is palatable and it really makes what I do fun. While I have considered myself a 'student-of-the-market' for more than 20 years, I have only been following BTC since December, 2013 and the past six months have been a very interesting tutorial on how bear cycles (or 'corrections') play themselves out. Considering Bitcoin's current and historical volatility, I suppose the quiet market of April/May was more the exception then the norm. With that volatility should come the understanding that price has/can/will move 10% or more within a very short period of time. A trade that moves against you (without rigid risk management strategies) can and will hurt a lot. Indeed, this is when analysts need to consider all possibilities given the current environment, only take setups that are within their plan and for heavens sake, always put yourself in a position to be able to fight another day. (shameless plug.....for help with this please refer to my online courses and tutorial materials),,,
So, with all this in mind I thought I would weigh in on two perfectly legitimate scenarios I could see play out over the coming sessions.
Bearish: Considering higher time frame bias ( bearish daily) a continuation down into the $500 area isn't out of the question. Knowing the market never moves in a straight line one can us The BoT to trade their way down into that zone. Currently a bearish ab=cd setup is working. Shorts from 562.45 with initial stops (still working, missed 'stop to break-even level 536.91 by $5...ugh) at $588.01 are acceptable. Target currently is $485.81 and represents a 3:1 r/r.
Bullish: Considering the severity of the move down, one shouldn't be surprised at the idea of a 'dead-cat-bounce' back into resistance. Considering too, the recent completion of a bearish BoT setup, one has to wonder if going to the well one too many times is asking for too much. The initial test of the 38.2 Fib (579.39) and now the potential reversal here off the OTE             (long) sweet spot (70.5% Fib or 541.39) has setup a bottoming zone. If a bottom was to form this is, imho, where it is going to happen. A bullish resolution through the zone sets up a rally back into the OTE             (short) zone which just so happens to be right on a trend line and the 200 sma .
Personal conclusion: Considering higher time frame bias and the fact that this counter trend rally expectation would represent nothing more than a move back into an area institutions would consider selling into, my inclination is one would need to see more bullish technical evidence to support buying at current levels. We have the smatterings of a bottom, but that is all it is to me at this point. Should price action consolidate for a bit here that bullish case may gain some traction.
As a professional market technician, I must respect where we are on the chart and what the market is trying to tell me. I must be flexible in stance, consider all possibilities and put my expectations going forward into perspective. My greatest hope is you can use these levels and notes to help in your trade process and expectation too.

Cheers all and hope it helps

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oops, title wrong, should read 1hr
Reply
lukas.o.chudy
2 years ago
Thanks for another great chart. I tricked myself today and expected 522 is the bottom, with consolidation with 565 OTE long entry. I was out in few hours on the stop 555. Coud you please tell a little more about the "tails that should be eaten" ? :-) And what fail/reversal patterns do you use? Or if you wrote about it before, post a link, I will study myself, I dont want to waste your time.
Btw, nice presentation about BoT!
Reply
CRInvestor PRO lukas.o.chudy
2 years ago
'tails that should be eaten' refers to the candle sticks themselves. the part between the open and close is called 'the body' anything outside is a wick (above) or a tail (below). Notice the very long 'tail' on the bar that made the low at 522.15. As a prop trader and talking with my peers on a daily basis, we used to always say 'tails like to be eaten' and that means if price gets into the tail then it will 'eat' up a lot of it as it goes down and sees if that low is for real or not.

Please refer to my many tutorials (you can find here: http://www.therationalinvestor.ca/sub_seminar.php ) on what a fail/reversal pattern looks like to me (specifically Advanced technical analysis material).

Cheers, good luck and please remember all of this is given to you for free. If you benefit from the information then please consider a BTC donation to help me continue my work:

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Reply
as of 6:20pm pst, coming back from a nice afternoon out with Liam I see we have reversed and broken the latest bearish ab=cd harmonic price pattern. Indeed, looks like the bears went to the well one too many times. Regardless, previously posted OTE short zone + trend line resistance + 200 period sma are my target zone for the rally at the moment...

cheers all and hope the information helps

Brian
Reply
minbari PRO CRInvestor
2 years ago
As no one has said it... great work mate, also expecting a top at around 620
Reply
CRInvestor PRO minbari
2 years ago
tyvm
Reply
lukas.o.chudy minbari
2 years ago
I hope so, 20 more to target on 619, entry on 592 (1ht OTE), stop 580.
There are also 2 AB=CD long setups formed on 1hr, so ... we will see :-)
Reply
CRInvestor PRO lukas.o.chudy
2 years ago
well, this could get tough in here, lots of bear momentum divergence and not really a bullish over all market structure....be careful!
Reply
lukas.o.chudy CRInvestor
2 years ago
damn it. here is my view on market:
snapshot

Unfortunately I see it as bullish - it means you can see something I dont :( why do you see it as non-bullish?
Reply
CRInvestor PRO lukas.o.chudy
2 years ago
I just posted an updated hourly chart. Please refer to that for my notes on current conditions:
1hr BTC (Finex) The dead cat bounced, now what??
Reply
lukas.o.chudy CRInvestor
2 years ago
Ok, I closed my position soon engouh. Just to cover the costs and pay the launch. I am sending you the rest in btc tip :-))
Reply
lukas.o.chudy CRInvestor
2 years ago
well i can see double top formed few minutes before my entry on limit :-/
Reply
CRInvestor PRO lukas.o.chudy
2 years ago
please comment/refer to most recent post....total flip of the coin here. If she lands heads and the market goes the way of your original trade please don't be cross with me. Fwiw, your trade should follow your trading plan, not what some nutty technician posts....lol
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