Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 3rd straight bearish week (1W) following the 49000 High, which technically was a Higher High on the 1-year Channel Up. This is the 2nd Higher High structure within this pattern (first was on April 10 2023) and technically we are currently on the new Bearish Leg that seeks the formation of a new Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.
** 1W MACD Bearish Cross ** This week's big development though is the completion of a Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD, the first one since July 24 2023 and before that May 29 2023. Both of those came after the peak formations but delivered at least another 3 weeks of downtrend.
** The 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone ** Interestingly enough those peaks were priced on the 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone, which we have analyzed extensively in previous publications (has been Support during the Bull Cycle and Resistance during the Bear Cycle). This time BTC is above that Zone and the current Bearish Leg has high probabilities of testing it as a Support (Demand) for the first time since May 2022.
** Where to buy? ** The medium-term supporting trend-line is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is already near the middle of that Zone and long-term the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is about to enter it. What long-term investors and Dollar-Cost-Average traders should be looking for is buy positions on those key levels. If the Cyclical Zone holds (i.e. keeps closing 1W candles above it), then it will be confirmed as a Supply level for the remainder of the Bull Cycle and most likely will propel the price to the new Parabolic Rally Phase after April's Halving.
** Next Target? ** Every Bullish Leg within the 1-year Channel Up has been around +100%, so as long as the pattern holds, we should be technically expecting a rebound of similar magnitude. Assuming the bottom (Higher Low) is priced as low as possible (on the 1W MA50), a new +100% rise will provide a Higher High around 65000, just below Resistance 2 (69150), which is essentially the All Time High (ATH). Historic patterns have shown that a buy just before the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross, is perhaps the most optimal entry in preparation for this rally.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to test the Supply Zone and perhaps the 1D MA200 and 1W MA50? Are you waiting for a long-term buy there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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I tried to share my idea, but it was not sharable. So here is the image version only:
CryptoFerk
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Great idea. Can you tell me Cus I’m noob still what the bottom Green red Section Insixator is? Is that a gator with like RSI ontop r or MacD? Thank you very much
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
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The identification of the 1D MA200 and 1W MA50 as potential support levels within the Cyclical Zone showcases a strategic approach to finding entry points.