Out perspective comes through the lens we are looking. So many are now saying there will be an immediate recovery. On the chart a long term median channel with many touches and Willy Woo's famous 20 week moving average. Price is currently testing below the 20Wma and according to Woo if price ever trends below it is bearish . What happens next?
Oooo! Very nice. The excitement of an upward channel! What are the chances we detonate all the way to the bottom of it at around, what, 24k? Maybe even a wick below? That would be even more bearish than most of these head-and-shoulders charts I'm seeing. Currently on the sidelines waiting for this to all unfold.
dRends35
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@ClearOpenDoor, I'm not saying this will happen, there is a long way and many counts, but this is a possible count I came up with.
ClearOpenDoor
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@dRends35, That *is* a bearish chart. I wonder if we could even get a black swan event which causes something like a .5 correction this time to $400!
If we already topped then there may not be another massive alt season until we enter b of corrective phase. Or this could be last wave of alt season instead of wave 3. Have you taken alt coin waves into account? Because I was thinking some like ethereum and big caps are already in the middle of their wave 3s while others have yet to even start theirs. This would change those projections
dRends35
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@ClearOpenDoor, I'm changing my perspective as this juncture unfolds. I now think that there are quite a few coins that are going to have an enormous 5th wave grand finale as Bitcoin bounces after first capitulation. The best case for this I've looked at so far is VET and I've posted a thread with my trade - Its in my list. I'll have a trawl through other coins shortly and probably post some trades similar to VET, which I think could be up to x10 for the entire wave. ETH however see my recent thread, it looks to have topped.
ClearOpenDoor
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@dRends35, Your 5th wave fits with my current idea bias as well. Although I was still thinking double bubble from btc which would mean price stabilizes in the 30s in the coming months before moving to around 100k eoy. In either case we have a profound opportunity unfolding right in front of us. Look to place low ball bids in range of the highest daily volume candle from previously in the year. There seems to be confluence across the board on these coins of a much lower spot where the bulls will defend with all their might. That is where I am placing my bids.
dRends35
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@ClearOpenDoor, Interesting. I've tried to see the bullish case for BTC wave 5, however I use log based fibs and that would take price to around $350000. And its not that I think the price is too high, but rather I can't find any real evidence for that case. Rather a truncated cycle wave (5, supercycle1?) seems more probable and I am now leaning towards that scenario as the end phase of Bitcoin's logarithmic price cycle.
ClearOpenDoor
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@dRends35, yes, if I understand that correctly a truncated wave 5 would keep the macro scope of btc bullish by pushing back as far up into logarithmic resistance as it can go at the eoy. After that I would be looking to get out of crypto for awhile in the hopes of buying back all the way down at the logarithmic support zone. I didn't think it was real but after seeing this rounded top playing out it appears we have a clearly defined zone for btc forevermore. I like things I can clearly measure and hopefully this knowledge will allow some good investing in the future.
dRends35
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@ClearOpenDoor, I might draw it on a chart sometime but what I mean is I think BTC may have completed a supercycle wave 1 which contains cycle wave 1, 3 and now currently just completed wave 5. This supercycle followed a logarithmic growth pattern from the insanely explosive augmented growth of cycle wave 1 through to thhe truncated wave 5 we're witnessing now. But then following a supercycle wave 2 correction the pattern may repeat into a new logarithmic growth curve - supercycle wave 3, beginning with another augmented cycle wave 1.
I don't think Bitcoin is trapped in a logarithmic growth curve forever more (like many think), mainly because that doesn't allow for the higher degree supercycle wave 2 correction.
ClearOpenDoor
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@dRends35, That is an interesting point. I will add this to the list of possibilities.
I'm not going to get much sleep tonight! The falling is really starting to pick up and I want to be awake to make sure my very low ball bids get hit. I'm expecting to go as low as 23-34k, preferably on the lower end before the bounce. We can reevaluate once the strength of this move has played out and we either get a higher low and consolidation from btc or continuation downwards after the bounce.