After playing with this little one over the weekend (refer to CRI's weekend BitCoin day trade short idea) I thought it would be prudent to take a look at this very interesting 'trading vehicle' from a broader perspective. When I look at the 4 hour chart I actually see harmonics well at work even though it seems this thing is going nuts. First off, you will notice that this isn't the first 'blow of top' for BitCoin. Indeed we basically did the same thing at the beginning of November. After that top, she cleaned herselfup and now we are into its second leg higher. What I find most interesting here is that she came right back to the OTE long ss off the first top and promptly setup another bullish price pattern. The most recent pattern (bull ab=cd and a cup-and-handle) suggested we wanted to trade up into the 1180 area and gee wiz here we are now. While there certainly isn't a top in place yet, those fortunate enough to 'get long' off the last harmonic entry (854.38) ought to seriously consider taking profits at the implied ab=cd target (in and around $1,182).
Comments
Mitchoum
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You got it spot on I think!
BryceWH
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Fantastic chart! Thanks for this!
Schr0ding3rscat
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This bubble will burst, it is just a matter of time. 500gh/s mining rigs will be shipped to many customers who will be saturating the market trying to pay for them with all the bitcoin that they will produce... only way it keep this trend going is if it becomes more widely accepted.
flibbr
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acceptance / adoption is exponential
Schr0ding3rscat
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As is the rate at which it is produced... IMO these trends just don't look sustainable, but I would like to see it continue this movement as I've made some pretty easy money off it.
Schr0ding3rscat
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correction to what I said, I meant hash rate is increasing exponentially :)
flibbr
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Go to a log chart instead of linear, then do 1-4 day view... pan out and draw a trend line.. it helps
CRInvestor
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I totally agree, on short term fluctuations she could move all over the place and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see this whole thing blow up as it really is just a ponzi scheme. When push comes to shove (and that may very well happen) this thing isn't even worth the 'electronic' paper it's printed on.
The question really is, how do you 'trade' BitCoin (or anything really) to make money.....because that is really all we care about in the end. Both of those 'setups' (buying the Optimal Trade Entry long sweet spot and then buying the BoT long entry level) are specifically designed to 'trade' for a profit. They have specific risk/reward criteria and are very reliable harmonic patters. Anything approaching 2:1 (reward over given risk) is an acceptable trade worth taking in my opinion. OTE's often give nice little 2:1 setups and BoT's are designed to target 3:1......trade for profit, trade for profit
One final note, have you considered gold falling back to $1000 or even lower?? That is a very realistic scenario 'technically' and might throw a wrench into your fundamental model...cheers
artiguste
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Ok this is not a technical analisys but consider in few moments, 1 BTC > 1 oz GOLD. Then mainstreams will do so many "promotions" by telling stories about bitcoin and gold and bla bla bla
So if BTC price reaches $1250, kind of big wave will allow to surf more for a while.
Hope it won't be shore break ;-)