looking at the past Bitcoin Bear-Market we can find many clues that could help us determine future price movements. Of course, I doubt that history will exactly repeat itself but it can surely give us some good reference points.
So first let´s look at the RSI in 2014 where we made our first low at roughly the ~30 level region, then forming an ABC correction, wicking through the upper white trendline just to test the lower white trendline to come crashing down again and making a second low on the RSI and the price chart. That is where the ultimate bottom was formed in the past.
Nowadays we can already see a slight difference to the past, like closing below the .786 fib. level. Nevertheless the resemblence is definetly there, like closing a few weeks above the upper white trendline only to fall heavily through it and nearing the ~30 level RSI region again.
But where do we go from here?
Altough I can say with confidence that we will likely go into a correction before printing the second low on the RSI (not saying that the first low is in yet) and the price chart to form the bottom that we are all looking forward to, I won´t predict where exactly since that is just pure speculation. For this reason I have marked the important support regions I will be keenly looking out for. I will say that the probability is very high to bounce off one of these levels/regions especially off these fib levels and blue boxes and that the chance that we fall below $1000 is very low. Well nothing is impossible but I will only be averaging down to around $900, if it really falls lower then I´ll maybe sell my house and car to buy more? Just kidding of course, don´t invest what you can´t afford to lose. But seriously at what point would you stop buying Bitcoin $500, §300, $200, $150, $70, $0 ?
The crypto market needs adoption, regulations, ETF´s, more real life value and at the pace we are going right now I really believe that it won´t take too long before seeing more and more signs of a new bullrun so I will audaciously say that we will find the real bottom in the 1st Quarter of 2019 and then slowly creep upwards.
So that was my grandscale past and present analysis on Bitcoin, hope some of you might find this helpful. Feedback would be genuinely appreciated!
Cheers, from Kaizer
- Not financial advise, only sharing my thoughts here -
BTC made a new low on the weekly RSI and that even below the 30 level.
In the past BTC made a ABC correction after that, which we are also in now.
We would be in Wave B or Wave C already according to that and could go up to ~4500-5400 (most likely scenario).
If we go up I´ll be looking to short the shit out of Bitcoin since that will be an absolutely massive opportunity.
Other than that even if we go down from here, I believe that the bottom is still NOT in and we need atleast
a second low on the RSI and the price chart.
For this reason I´ll be averaging my BTC entries all the way to 1000 USD.
TheAlphaTrades
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Thanks for your work. I could not agree more. I do have some other thoughts as well that may differ from yours. Appreciate your insight.
Good morning Traders! Here's my morning BTC analysis for Dec 4th. In this I discuss small time frames showing slight strength | Bigger time frames looking bearish | Next OB breakdown range:
Sigmaniac77
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If you have a good look you will find a huge gap between $1300-$1800 so I wouldn't close out a dump to that area in like 6 months.
Kaizer1
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@Sigmaniac77, Surely a definite possibility, altough I would keep an eye on the $1635 .925 fib level.
Last bear market retraced 92.5% and formed the bottom at this point so this might be another point of interest.
BTC made a new low on the weekly RSI and that even below the 30 level.
In the past BTC made a ABC correction after that, which we are also in now.
We would be in Wave B or Wave C already according to that and could go up to ~4500-5400 (most likely scenario).
If we go up I´ll be looking to short the shit out of Bitcoin since that will be an absolutely massive opportunity.
Other than that even if we go down from here, I believe that the bottom is still NOT in and we need atleast
a second low on the RSI and the price chart.
For this reason I´ll be averaging my BTC entries all the way to 1000 USD.