There is general fearful sentiment in the market that is sounding bullish to me and on top of consistent consolidation at lows.
Funding rates more or less flatlined and keep going back and forward but swaps been trading consistently bellow spot, specially Binance and OKEX. Which is good news.
Futures also showing some strength in the premiums while price marking down. Which suggest that short/hedges are getting closed and/or new longs are taking place.
Open Interest is also rising while we marking down. We are likely to see some shakeout moves before starting marking up.
The books show significant support base down to 40k confluent with the technical support levels based on swing lows but also monthly and quarterly opens.
Overall I think is terrible idea to be short in this market. I'm actually feeling super bullish rn.
I really like your analyses and find them very helpful, and I am trying to learn how to use your indicators properly. In your view, what is the shortest timeframe the perpetual swaps are a useful indicator, and is there any particular level they'd have to reach (positive or negative) for you to consider it a strong indicator of an opposite price movement?
D7R
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@dyas7233, 30m shoud be fine to lok at perp swaps basis. But there is not particuarl level. The way we look at this indictor is not in a linear way. All it tells is that there is a change in how swaps trading bellow spot and how they will start impacting the funding rates but this can take time to have practical effect on price. All we have is an idea how we position ourselves from risk allocation perspective and what are the odds favouring each side of the market in near future.