BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This chart stretches from back in 2012 using a logarithmic trend to support it all the way up to the current time. We have not yet hit the logarithmic trend which has proven to hold several times the last 5 years. We got a meeting point of the log-trend and the major weekly level from 2017 at $2950 ( Bitstamp ) $3000 (Bitmex). These two major trends meeting at the same place in the upcoming weeks makes me believe the bottom for this cycle COULD be in for this time, at $3000. As this is a long term chart I'm not going into detail on the lower timeframes, but I'm expecting one more leg down to $3000 with possible wick to $2900 if the $3630 level breaks before the major bounce.

This study is largely speculative based on this single trend and trend-analysis, and short term positions should be taken in combination with other time frames and indicators for better strategic planning.

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Comment: We are getting near my possible reversal point for BTC here now. This is a zone, so they could frontrun the level at $3200 and reverse it here to make it even more bullish.
Comment: Morning!
It's been a while since an update this chart, and per request I'm taking a look at the chart again. Back in Dec 7th, I posted the chart above with a pretty unusual channel. Personally I had not seen this posted by any other analysts before I mentioned it.

Once I posted the idea, we had not yet hit the line so I was not sure how it would react once we got down there. Fortunately for us, it's respecting as one should hope, and it's holding very well. It's important to point out it's not the trend holding it alone: It's supported by levels/zones and supply zones, fib-levels and a rounding bottom/ascending triangle pattern. All this makes for a great bottom.

On the long term chart we are looking good for now. We're moving a little too close to the line for my comfort, but as long as we hold above $3300 we should be safe above the trend. The bear-market was confirmed once we got a weekly close below 11k. Therefor, to officially be out of the bear-market, we need to move above 11k, and preferably break above the blue line to confirm a move out of the accumulation zone. Breaking the blue line and 11k is a great indication of a momentum shift.

Note; the blue line is not used as a resistance, but more to just show the zone.

On the short term chart you can see we dipped below the trend for a day before bouncing up again. This is perfectly normal for a trend-line spanning over such a long distance. It's due to different exchanges having small differences in the price history, and liquidation slides which is to a degree not controllable by the MMs. I'm not going to do a short term analysis on this chart, so follow to get notifications once it's out!

Trade active: Caught the BOTTOM


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