When i wrote my previous analysis, things looked pretty basic. Had a decent drop from the high in the shape of an ABC correction, which had been completed already or where i thought a small bear trap below that last bear flag would be a likely scenario as well. An hour or so before the rally began from 3910/20, i gave an update where i mentioned that the price was hanging too long at the resistance of the bear flag around 3915. Also ETH was looking like it wanted to break up as well. Shortly after we saw this happening and since then we made a decent volume rally up.
In my objective part i wrote that even a move up, could still simply mean a retest of the former support as a resistance now. Normally it should have stopped around 4000, but instead of rejection we saw a small triangle form which pushed the price up from 3990 to 4030. Normally, for a simple retest, it should have stayed below the 3960/4000. But sometimes it gets extended a little bit more. In theory, it is allowed to reach the previous high even (when assuming it was a wedge). In 2018 this happened a lot, seeing FOMO push the price up to the max, but past 8 months or so the bulls are usually to weak. So this is a first small sign for me, that bulls might be in favor.
Second one, is what i wrote in my previous analysis:
Now something else that keeps bugging me a bit. When looking back at previous drops, as we can see on the right and the chart here below. The other 2 similar moments, the whole world could see those up trend lines . But those times, it was almost impossible to short it, since those dumps happened in seconds/minutes. Now what makes me doubt is, how come this time everyone gets the perfect chance to short it here? Maybe a reason is because the OI is this high, because that also means a lot of people have positions running, so certain levels will be defended. Something we have seen a lot past weeks actually.
With this, to where we are now, i don't think it's likely that this 100 point rally was it.
A third thought is, OI dropped 25 mil on the way down from 3970 to 3880 and dropped another 25 mil with this move up. So a more logical assumption would be, bears pushed it down to be able to close shorts at 3900 levels and closed more shorts on the way up. So would make more sense to think that some bears are giving up. A possible confirmation of this is, funding dropped to neutral after being in the negative for quite some time. Like a sentiment indicator, so it shows there are less bears now, but that can always change.
A forth sign, the alt coin market cap chart, made a good jump up and is above the resistance of the bull flag now. This one is not allowed to drop back in again. When i look at my chart with 8 different alt coins, they are moving very stable at the highs, so no profit taking pressure (yet).
For now it seems to be an easy view up, as long as we stay above that curved blue line around 3995. To be honest, i am surprised to see it hang there this stable without any real pressure of the bears. The blue line on the left, is something i have drawn like that on purpose. Because instead of seeing a small spike up and a Bart move down like last time, we need to see it get in that blue zone, seeing bears push like crazy but the bulls being stronger and THEN seeing the rally start. Why am i describing it like this, because this way is how we get volume. Bears need to loose at these levels, not that 30% of the bears loose here, we move up to 4090 and then the remaining 70% of the bears push the price down and create a Bart move. In the chart below we can see 2 examples of what we should see. The on the right is a bit more complicated, but it is to illustrate why volume is so important. On the one on the left, you have to see like the bears simply let the bulls push up because they had a surprise for them. If i see enough interest in this subject, i could make an educational post about this one. So what do we need to with this attempt, volume. If volume doesn't reach monthly highs, even a break of 4200 will be very likely just temporary.
Now the bearish side of the story. As long as we stay below the 4040 the bears can still take over. As we saw a week ago, even at 4070 the bears can still take over. With that failed attempt the volume was simply too low. When assuming that green trend line is a real one as well, the market is at an important stage now. It bounced up again from that uptrend but to confirm another rally, it has to break the previous high. If that doesn't happen, it means there are not enough willing buyers and it is very likely to see the price get dumped if that trend line breaks. A similar situation happened a few days ago, in my most recent USDJPY analysis (link here below in the Related Ideas). There we saw a bounce up from the channel as well, against the resistance of the high, not enough buyers and than a big dump happened.
My view is up right now, as long as we stay above the 3995 it's an easy view up, above 3980ish means being a bit more careful and below 3950ish means being neutral again. Now depending on how things go of course with volume and movement, there is still a lot of potential on the upside. But for high prices, meaning 5k+ prices, the push through 4200 needs to be very big. Meaning it has to push towards 4400/4500 in one rally. If 4100/4200 breaks and we only go towards 4300, the chances for a bull trap remain very high. I will try to post updates when something significant happens, because it's easier to predict the second step AFTER the first step has been made.
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Previous analysis:
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Here we can see that alt market cap chart, how it is moving above the bull flag now. A max drop to that green zone is allowed. On the left, that curved line pattern is still in play until that previous high breaks. Which means, as long as we stay below the 4050ish, a dump can still happen. Something that usually happens when a curved line shape breaks
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Like now, just after my post, we move up 10/15 points, volume increased, but not even close to being enough. But as long as it moves up with higher lows on the 5/15m chart it can still work out.
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These bots, always the same sh*t :). Difficult to judge, but seems like the volume on this Bart is a bit lower than usual. So i think this attempt might fail.
But again this shows, how important volume is. The volume was simply not enough on the way up.
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New XRP analysis:
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New alt coin market cap chart:
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New update on the BTC SPX fractal:
Looks crazy so far
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Again another low volume attempt to break up. Unlikely to see it make a real break upwards with this volume. Unless the more aggressive buying starts above the 4040/4050. An option goed be seeing it stay above the 4010ish from now on. Already got a little bit of rejection as i am writing this. So volume is increasing now and seems like a small fight has started as we speak
Futures markets have made a complete mess of crypto. Deep pockets easily manipulate price in such small cap/volume envirornments. It's not a coincidence that crypto plummeted almost to the day Dec. 17/2017 that CME bitcoin futures markets became available.
At this stage, the greatest service you and other TAs can provide to the community is to continue to use your TA skills and knowledge of market movements to decipher their machinations so we have a map of the their manipulation strategies and plans. Once uncovered, they will almost certainly cease to have quite so much power over the markets. Attention to OI, and futures contract expiration seems like a good start. Might want to include at least 2-3 additional high volume exchanges in terms of OI numbers, because I think you're hunch is right - they probably distribute across several top exchanges to help cover their tracks.
Also, I would like to respectfully suggest considering modifying your underlying assumption of two embattled groups: bulls vs. bears contnuously fighting it out, to instead view it as one group: a single monolithic manipulator with unlimited bags of money that manipulates price in both directions to maximize profit without destroying the market, maximizing volatility, accumulating (bull) and distributing (bear) at the right times, and lulling unsuspecting buyers and sellers at local tops and bottoms. I would love to see what you can come up with as an overarching manipulation strategy.
@dalmazio, Futures have indeed destroyed this market, but it's just a tool. It's us humans and greed that are doing it. So most likely, if there weren't any futures available, they would have found something else to do it with. All the scams they did with crypto, shows that unregulated things are way too sensitive for human greed. I was warning people back in Dec 2017 that these futures should not be celebrated.
I have watched order books and price action very closely and many times a year ago, seen them use exchanges many times to steer the price to a certain direction. The highest volume and liquidity is at Bitmex for almost a year now. So why not take a 50 mil pos at Bitmex, when only needing like 2 mil to push the price up or down at other exchanges. Since i started trading crypto in Sept 2017, it was quite easy to see how prices were getting manipulated. I have spotted several tracks of some whales during that time, many of them i posted here on TV upfront. But eventually they keep changing their game and tracks. But it takes a lot of energy to spot their games, with a problem, you need to see it several times before knowing it's real, while in the mean time you can get false signals (noise) as well.
Actually the only reason why i say bulls and bears, is my assumption that most of the readers here can picture it easier when i describe certain situations. I personally see the market exactly like that, not only crypto, but all the markets. Like it is us against one big giant whale. I do that to make it easier to comprehend.
I don't think there is a fixed strategy to trade along with this manipulation. I have developed/spotted several pattern of the years, that help me see upfront when a certain bullish pattern is actually bearish and vice versa. IMO, there is actually nothing we can do about all the manipulation in the markets. A few people can trade along, but if too many do it, they simply push it another level up or down against us and THEN do their thing.
I made a educational post a few months ago about ETP, that perfectly shows, that even though we know exactly what is going on, we simply can't do anything about/with it. Just like the US indices the past 2 months. Everyone knows that should have made a normal correction, but it gets pumped each time it looks like it will drop more. It's all short squeezing, using the shorting of retail money to push the price higher and higher up until everyone gives up, stops shorting, so no fuel to push it up and THEN it starts to drop without retail money. What do we usually see then? After a decent drop, retail money thinking it will go up again, so many go long and THEN the big drop happens, because now the longs get used as fuel to crash the price. Eventually we see it reach targets that we all knew or saw coming upfront, but instead of making a big win we even lost money.
dalmazio
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@botje11, great comments. What you say regarding “if too many do it, they simply push it another level up or down against us and THEN do their thing” is quite revealing. I wonder if there are any “tells” that suggest this is happening - specifically, that too many people are piling into a trade, and that a short/long squeeze to shake out the weak hands is highly likely before movement continues in the direction everyone correctly predicted. Anyways, keep up the great work!
Pineapple1k
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My view on the market mid/long-term rn
GRIPSTER27
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Great post sir, would always enjoy any more educational ones (such as the one you mentioned above) very much! I am sure others feel this way as well.
botje11
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@GRIPSTER27, Thank you, i enjoy making them as well, but they take a lot of time for me to translate my thoughts into language that makes sense. That's why i only want to do it if i see enough people want to see/read it
1) why are you showing a 5min graph? its worthless, too much noise, your are shooting crabs and blaming bots for getting it all wrong
2) in all your analysis you draw a blue line up and a red line down, that way you cant be wrong, yet sometimes you still get it all wrong, exhibit A: (previous analysis) (press play to laugh):
3) you don't even take a stance on the overall analysis (picking Long or Short), way to take a stance
4) stop shooting airballs, time for you to take a lap
At this stage, the greatest service you and other TAs can provide to the community is to continue to use your TA skills and knowledge of market movements to decipher their machinations so we have a map of the their manipulation strategies and plans. Once uncovered, they will almost certainly cease to have quite so much power over the markets. Attention to OI, and futures contract expiration seems like a good start. Might want to include at least 2-3 additional high volume exchanges in terms of OI numbers, because I think you're hunch is right - they probably distribute across several top exchanges to help cover their tracks.
Also, I would like to respectfully suggest considering modifying your underlying assumption of two embattled groups: bulls vs. bears contnuously fighting it out, to instead view it as one group: a single monolithic manipulator with unlimited bags of money that manipulates price in both directions to maximize profit without destroying the market, maximizing volatility, accumulating (bull) and distributing (bear) at the right times, and lulling unsuspecting buyers and sellers at local tops and bottoms. I would love to see what you can come up with as an overarching manipulation strategy.