I recommend anyone to take a look at my previous videos where I cover points I didn't cover in this one.
but in the one we revisit the technical levels I am looking at and their confluence with what the books are telling at the moment.
Reminder that the nature of the books is like a living animal but so far it has been quite steady. What we need to see is that support around 42-40k range to hold well in case we get there. The upper ranges up to the 69k is pretty illiquid at the moment.
Watch the video for full details where I also briefly touch on the Options open interest for December contracts.
REMEMBER guys... take my videos as probabilities statements and/or useful heuristics to look for when we are making your own trading decisions.
last video you suggested the month would close at 48k at max options pain price. now you expect much higher. what changed?
D7R
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@simplejoe1 48k is max pain. Price rarely end at max pain zone. This could be one of rare times it would end around it. But if history repeats the most logical place would be near the 69k. I don’t know where price will end by 31st December but odds Gabor close to 60k-68k range … the key word here is “odds”
simplejoe1
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@D7R, "price rarely ends at max pain" - just to clarify last video I understood from your words that most likely the month would end at 48k since it is max pain and most options expire worthless. please explain what you meant. thanks. love your videos
D7R
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@simplejoe1, Price tends to trend towards the max pain during the month where the quarterly options expire (March, June, September and December) but odds generally favour then price moving slightly off from the max pain close to the settlement date. But this is a behaviour that doesn't necessarily need to repeat so far been consistent I would say 80% of the time.
simplejoe1
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i'm learning alot from these videos - thank you!
tyler8910
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Thanks! Very helpful. I don't know much about how to read/interpret order books so your analysis is great.
D7R
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@tyler8910 there will be times I will be wrong. That is why is better always to frame your mind around probabilities when we read these things. Books can completely change Over night. So far they showing some consistency for days for hopefully that 42k range holds well.