Lots of hype this week as bitcoin made a move up. We went from 7,300 to 8,400 USD. Sounds good, right. Maybe, but be careful. As strong as this weeks move was, I mainly see one thing. Another lower high.
Another positive I heard about this week is breaking up through the 50 moving average. True, we did. But it’s not impressing me until a candle opens and closes above it. Right now bitcoin is just riding it like a surfer on a wave. We spent about 30 weeks above it and now, 8 weeks testing its strength. Whats the chance it gives and we drop below it.
We are still in the descending green triangle I’ve been watching, at the resistance point. I might get excited if we break out of it, but not unless a full candle closes above it. The trouble with watching weekly candles, is it’s hard to not buy midweek when a breakout might just end up being a wick by the time the candle closes. Wicks are cool and exciting but in the end, they don’t impress me much either.
If we trend down to test the support of the bottom of the triangle, that would put us back in the 6,900 USD area.
The purple uptrend line is about a year old. We left it behind in April and have been solidly above it since April. We first tested its strength around Thanksgiving and have since tested it two more times. The MACD has headed to positive potential but is still bearish. The overall volume isn’t all that.
Again, not impressed. On the contrary. I see the potential to drop below; the 50 MA, the year old uptrend line, and the bottom support of this triangle, all at about the same time. By the same time, I mean potentially months. Remember, these are weekly candles. If the next thing we get is another lower low, this puts us well below all three of these things. Would not be good.
Thanks for listening.
satoshmike
I am not a professional trader, investor or adviser. This is not, in any way, financial advise. Always do your own research.
Twitter - @satoshmike
Another positive I heard about this week is breaking up through the 50 moving average. True, we did. But it’s not impressing me until a candle opens and closes above it. Right now bitcoin is just riding it like a surfer on a wave. We spent about 30 weeks above it and now, 8 weeks testing its strength. Whats the chance it gives and we drop below it.
We are still in the descending green triangle I’ve been watching, at the resistance point. I might get excited if we break out of it, but not unless a full candle closes above it. The trouble with watching weekly candles, is it’s hard to not buy midweek when a breakout might just end up being a wick by the time the candle closes. Wicks are cool and exciting but in the end, they don’t impress me much either.
If we trend down to test the support of the bottom of the triangle, that would put us back in the 6,900 USD area.
The purple uptrend line is about a year old. We left it behind in April and have been solidly above it since April. We first tested its strength around Thanksgiving and have since tested it two more times. The MACD has headed to positive potential but is still bearish. The overall volume isn’t all that.
Again, not impressed. On the contrary. I see the potential to drop below; the 50 MA, the year old uptrend line, and the bottom support of this triangle, all at about the same time. By the same time, I mean potentially months. Remember, these are weekly candles. If the next thing we get is another lower low, this puts us well below all three of these things. Would not be good.
Thanks for listening.
satoshmike
I am not a professional trader, investor or adviser. This is not, in any way, financial advise. Always do your own research.
Twitter - @satoshmike