VickzinBK
Long

Bitcoin in good position to go above $10k support.

GEMINI:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello all, hope everyone is having a good mid summer trading session so far. Starting off August 1st I wanted to point out a couple key differences from my prior charts, as well as the new adjustments I made. First key difference is I pushed back the 4H charts time frame to the key starting point of the first dip after the initial boost from BTC $3k all time low in April time. I then made the readjustment to the yellow buyer support line till the recent low dip/recovery point that we had. Now this support line I can safely call the super duper flex support line for Bitcoin , as if it breaks it has a good chance to hit the 8.6k CME gap and lower. Of course, with BTC and having the worst reliability to technical analysis , I also took the consideration of the recent twin peak descending sell pressure/channel.

With that said, I believe BTC is currently trading perfectly within this super duper flex buyer support line and only had a slight dip in the recent red candle with the long wick. From here putting recent market news and especially the federal reserve bank decision to lower the federal fund rate by 25 basis point, shows instability in the country's growth that can lead to a very messy recession. As seen yesterday stock market easily dipped by 400 points, which can be a sign of whales slowly exiting stocks. Now if FED keeps lowering rates of course economy is going to go up from the newly printed USD, but bubbles will be forming as well. BTC being one of the notorious bubbles to make money for market makers, I think will have a good chance to go higher along with Stock market until a serious of junk bonds begin to fail as they did in 2008 leading to full panic and sell. For the short term summer, my position is still bullish , ever since I acquired BTC at $11.3k and thus I am holding till at least BTC goes there or possibly to my target sell at $11.9k, which is the recent CME Bitcoin futures gap that was formed.

Thank you guys for joining me for this ride, I see a couple users have been supportive and commenting. Please do share tips and advice for me to improve, and as always stick to your knowledge and understanding before making trade decisions and as always

Onward and Upwards,
Victor.

So what do you guys think, will BTC begin to rise once again in August or are the Bears still in full control?
Trade active: Allright everyone, as shown from this post, my analys was 100% accurate and now it looks like bitcoin is once again on the rise. Key points to look from here is the 11.1k bear support, as well as the 11.9k CME gap bear support. At this point if anyone was following my blogs and actually baught at the time I posted the article you guys made some good money and can safely exit on profit. For everyone else like me who either are buying now or baught prior to the drop stay holding as this should be a good bullish weekend until Monday.

Now since my position is at $11.3k BTC I still have a little but before either breaking even or making a small profit myself. Ofcourse bitcoin is highly unpredictable so there is always an option for me to cut losses and re enter at a better time if things go south from 11.1k. Please remember hundred dollar losses are way better than thousand dollar losses. Also like before please post any advise as well as suggestions below. And as always,

Onward and Upwards,
Victor
Trade active: Wooh that was one long Sayurday, but now to the nitty griddy. Looking again at my comfortable 4H chart time frame, the key cross between my MA 100 and MA 50 just happened. From prior instances BTC went up easily 10% here, so if you are a historic observer this is the perfect indicator to buy more if you have funds availble as the price should in theory beat the 11.1k resistence and go up to 11.9k in the near future. Now this is Bitcoin and I'm not the fortune teller, so expect anything from hours to days where this can happen. I am also holding long on my position and maybe will exit around the $11.5-11.6k zone depending on how strong the $11.4k resistence is also. Now remember this is just one take but 2 out of 3 times this happened since March BTC has went through the roof past resistence levels. If you zoom back at my initial chart you will see. Plus, keepig Febonacci sequence the next stop can be even $16k but ofcourse I am waiting for a better confirmation like around $12k and up before investing at that point into the 4x volotility range in which case prices will move within $6,400 up or down from near tops and or bottoms created.

Once again everyone please observe and trully belive in yourself when making trading decisions. Ofcourse taking advice is helpful but just like me always think of an opposite angle, like at this point 11.4k resistence can be just as strong and shokng as last time where prices will go down back to 9k-10k levels.

Trade carefully and set stop losses and thanks for your support

Onward and Upwards,
Victor
Trade closed: target reached: Hello all, overnight was beautiful trading from the Asian side but sadly my limit sell of $11.9k was not reached by $30. With that said I closed my position at 11.7k this morning, being up roughly $400 from my initial purchase prior to prices tanking down to $9k levels. At this point if anyone else followed me and baught when I posted this trade you guys I am sure are happy and made some good cash. Your call to sell or keep holding, but once again key resistence at play here is $11.9k which got rejected yesterday pretty nicely at $11,850 per BTC. Ofcourse, guys user your head and judgement before investing, and as allways

Onward and Upwards,
Victor
Comment: Had to also make a comment for my Bears out there. Taking the newly astablished CME gap from weekend trading price, BTC has a good chance to go back down to $10.4k levels before going back up towards $12k and up. Therefore if you are shorting or atleast want to Hedge your long position at this point, a good short would be at current market price $11.8-9k with a stop loss at $12.4k.

Unfortunitely, I am not in current position to short as I have to have my exchange approve me again since I was margin trading and was in negative for to long, but if I was able to deposit more into a hedging position on Bitmex with 5x leverage this is exactly what I would do.

This is my final update to this post, till I create a new Chart or make adjustments to this one with a new entry position. But as always, research and deep think ideas like this first before executing my thoughts.

Onwards and Upwards,
Victor
Comment: Hey guys, wanted to make small update if anyone did take a short position with stop loss of $12,400. Overnight price did reach $12,300 but plumited back down to my bear support line and even below. However now it looks like RSI has decreased enough for another upcoming pump.

Depending how stock markets close again, and how Asian markets will pick up crypto from last night, I think this might be another good chance to either break recent resistence at $12.3k and go back up to test $13-14k levels. Ofcourse this is still a risky bull move so if you are capabile to hedging your position, a 10% hedge on a short with stop loss at around $13,000, would be wise to impliment incase markets plumit back down to $10.8k support. Now ofcourse stick to your own analys and thought as from my experience we are in a high risk high return area and as mentioned below in comments head and shoulder pattern is definitely presintly forming.

Please trade confidently and utilize common hedging techniques for your portfolios safety.

As always, Onward and Upwards,
Victor
H&S in construction! My targets for wave 4 in formation hit fibo retractions. With CME GAP. It is marked in a green box. GOOD LUCK
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ferGOD ferGOD
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@ferGOD, nice I'd also think that is the point but it almost looks as if it has allready reached that level and buyer support is there to once again test $11.9k resistence and go past $12.4k. Americans are looking like they are not doing much in this market as all the action has been going on during Asian peek hours. I'ma stay put till 8pm today see how they open and trade till midnight Eastern time.
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Hi, nice analyses.
I agree that we have crossed strong support levels and you have been right in your analyses. Just be aware of the wicks on the monthly chart, giving a clear signal that sellers are present. Since many people bought BTC between 11k and 13.8k, there will be even more sellers than before, because they will be looking to break even with their investment. For now I can see a bearish outcome over the next weeks. I see 11.1-11.4k as the high of this months candle, since it is the 0.5 line of last month. But we are right now at heavy resistance already so keep an eye on the key resistance and support lines on the monthly candles as well.

+1 Reply
@heish, Awesome, and thanks. I believe a lot of those people who baught at 11k-13k have allready cut their losses pushing the price far below 10k but I am sure a lot of more experienced traders as my self held on or even baught more on the drop. Unfortunitely for me I did not have funds availble to buy more BTC when it was at 9.2k as that would have pushed my averahe to 10k level and I would have bin up, but I will take your words into consideration during the next two days to see if I should just cut my loss or break even and not risk that bear seller pressure in between the 11.4k-11.9k zone.
+1 Reply
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