Phase 1: "They" buy BTC with fiat (aka: accumulation).
Phase 2: buy alts with BTC (aka: pump).
Phase 3: sell alts to buy back BTC . This leads to distribution of alts without significant drop in their price, since BTC price will go up at a fairly slow and steady pace due to buyback.
Phase 4: sell BTC for fiat. At this phase alts price crash at a much higher speed than BTC , providing opportunity for accumulation.
- repeat phase 1 to 4
I have marked each phase on the chart. Black is BTC and blue is Ripple.
I think these phases can appear in different time frames. Sort of like fractals.
What do you think about this theory?
FYI: I am a researcher and I am not easy to convince without evidence.I don't believe in 99% of popular conspiracy theories. However, I am extremely skeptical about Crypto market. I am a techie so I had a positive bias toward Crypto technology. As soon as I got into this market, I completely changed my mind about the usefulness of these currencies. Perhaps, the notorious tether is the most useful currency in terms of utility, which can be seen in its relatively high "transaction volume"/"market cap" ratio. Or anything like Tether e.g. MKR . Some privacy-oriented coins are also good for, you know ... . The rest of these coins are there for gamblers like me or whales/cartels/market makers like Spoofy.
There were countless number of such actions on April 8th with order amounts above 5k which disappeared immediately.
This picture shows the breakout moment. Usually, alts appreciate in value when BTC goes up. What you see in this picture is that they went down right at the breakout moment. What I can infer from this is that the alts and Bitcoin operators are the same people or they work in coordination. This signals the start of phase 3 which could last a few days. I don't have all the pieces of the puzzle yet but I hope to figure it out with your help.
I have been following top TA's in TV for the last two months. With the exception of @botje11, most of them were wrong at critical moments. Right before 11.7K crash, they were shouting for the moon and calling for sub 6k when BTC failed to break the support 3 times. These people rarely offer alternative scenarios. They usually speak with strong conviction and some speak like oracles. They admit they were wrong when it is too late. Then they make couple of good predictions with poor risk-reward ratio. At this point, you trust them back until market reaches another reversal point and they make another major wrong prediction. This just smells fishy for me. If you are new to TV, I suggest you to go through previous TAs of people you are following and if they made wrong calls at these critical points (or at any point), unfollow them. They have probably confused you a lot already. My skeptic mind tells me that these people are connected to the operators. I do not suspect those who have bearish or bullish conviction, rather, those who flip flop at critical reversal moments.
I did not have time to do a thorough research on correlations between longs, shorts and prices actions yet. I will publish an idea about it when I do my homework hopefully next week.
In my yesterday's update in a different idea, I gestimated how far up we would go if the log trendline breaks. It turned out to be very accurate (I am "certain" that it was just a coincidence). Based on the same gestimation method, I want to give you a sneak peak of my next tinfoil level 100 idea. The below 2h chart shows shorts, longs and BTC price in Bitfinex. We had couple of short squeezes recently which caused the shorts to go down quite a lot. The big squeeze on April 12 was accompanied by a lot of long covering (~12%), most of which probably belongs to those who were organizing the short squeeze. After this breakout and yesterday's breakout, we don't see longs going up. This, IMHO, is not a good sign. It shows that professional traders do not trust this market yet. Unlike retail FOMO you are feeling around you, FOMO/greed has not kicked in yet for the pros. However, fear is doing its job, manifested in shorts going down. In conclusion, this market is not a bull market yet. It is going up by retail money and short squeeze. Another reason that supports this idea is that we don’t see healthy corrections. The operators know that if the market corrects by e.g. 38%, there won’t be enough buyers to take the price back up to resume short-squeezing. Lack of proper pullbacks also increases the FOMO effect on retail buyers.
So how far can they keep doing this? my gestimation is that, if all the shorts close on Bitfinex (extremely unlikely), Bitcoin can gain maximum 1500 points. I think the operators will try to change the market sentiment as much as they can this way. When they are done with their squeeze, they’ll weigh the situation. If big money doesn’t flow in by then, bear market will resume but at a much slower rate. Why? Wait for it until next week.
Let me know what you think about this tinfoil theory.
Please like if you like. That will encourage me to do my homework for the next idea.
Also, don’t forget to read my status.
This is a possible bullish scenario if operators succeed in their mission. By @Rainman2
The below chart has some food for thought. I am assuming that we are in a similar place as we were on Feb 18. If we dropped significantly, this assumption would be invalid. Still, the idea has some merit. The fact that April rally is about alts not Bitcoin.
Another reason that indicates they are distributing is that shorts are not going up. The bear composite who was shorting the market early April is not causing this price drop. It's most likely the same composite who pumped the price, now distributing their BTC.
"I think Phase 4 started after 10k drop. However, this is a "half-baked" theory. I need to do extensive research to bake it more. It requires collecting a lot of info. Some people are now helping me but our progress is slow due to lack of time.
There is still a chance that alts can see new highs because of the Consensus event. Also, BTC IMHO still has a chance (30% as of now, can change depending on momentum) to break 10k."
At first, I just thought about studying this to distinguish different phase and correlation between btc and alt in order to spot early market signals.
Recently, same, I started to wonder if those strange actions on alt, was not because something will happen on btc and vice versa and if that was natural or a way to win on both side.
Keep up the good work ;)
This is a raw theory. It works to some extent. Especially if u look at it like fractals. The last signals I gave about phase 3 and 4 still hold true.
I posted this idea to get feedback so I could bake it more. In time, I will publish a two-third baked theory :D