This idea is the result of study from multiple time frames. 10-chart, 3-day chart, and the 1-day above.
On the above daily chart price action recently broke through the 3-day / 50-day EMA (blue dotted line). That was significant. Why this obscure EMA? For a number of reasons, no. 1 most importantly to remove daily price action noise. no. 2, very few people study the 3-day chart and no. 3, historical speaking price action has bounced hard from this EMA once confirmed as support - look left. (And on that last point, if confirmed resistance it can takes months to reclaim it as support).
Although it might closely fit from time to time, it is not the 21-week EMA, which every man and his dog is currently watching. Hence the calls for $40-42k.
A buy from 43k is amazing if you can get it. I don’t expect a daily candle to close at this level, more likely a wick.
Good luck!
WW
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A candle body is closing above the market structure, very bullish.
Also do you see the hidden bullish divergence? This differs from a regular bullish divergence with higher lows in price action as the oscillators print lower lows. Hidden divergences are often more powerful than regular divergences.
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hidden divergence reveals itself
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This next move will catch a lot of folks off guard, folks who are expecting price action to fall. Why?
1) Bollinger bands are squeezing with price action in the upper half. This is an indication of a big move coming.
2) Price action is testing support on previous resistance at market structure (see image above).
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Price action is currently on the 0.618 golden ratio. A ratio favoured throughout Bitcoin's history.
On the above and same chart below the Bollinger Band continues to squeeze indicating a large move is coming. Although price action is currently below the mean, the trading day remains open. You don't want to see a candle body close under the mean (pink line).
If at the end of this trading day price action has closed on or above 48K, we're continuing up, simple as that.
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going down to the wire, a significant move towards target should occur before September 7th.
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Very interesting watch the sellers repeatedly come in at 50k, pushing price action down for it to only rise again. The moment the sellers don't show up is the same moment price action races to the target.
Will it still happen before September 20th? I believe so. There's a lot of evidence supporting this target in the near term. Over the last few days price action has remained or closed above the 50k area. (purple circle), demand is not going away. Excellent.
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Exhausted sellers = Exploding price action.
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Ideally price action will close today at or around 48.6k for this trade to remain valid, but it is not a big deal otherwise if not, as long as the 21-day EMA shows support.
On the 90-minute chart below we can see margin call on long positions played a significant factor in driving down price today. This was Bitfinex longs (below). Same story on Phemex and Bybit, many longs destroyed.
Folks, not mater how tempting, stay away from margin / leverage trades.
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8 days to go!
The internet seems to be waiting for 42k. I'm reminded of everyone waiting for 20k when price action was in the $29-30k range.
Circled in purple is RSI support. Support just confirmed for the 3rd time in the last few days. The last time this support was confirmed price action rallied 45% in 10 days. Look left!
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down to the wire!
RSI support appears to be holding (purple circles). If RSI crosses up 50 (look left from this support), the next 10-days will be very up up up.
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And that's why I don't like predicting dates ;) The target remains valid, just not the date - be patient.
For current price action watch the 43k level (green line, 21 week EMA). If in the day a ahead a whole candle body closes below this line, it change things surely.
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Remember this trend line?
On the 3-day chart below price action is testing past resistance as support.
It would be surprising to see this fail but we'll have to wait three days to find out.
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Testing the very same support today as price action has been doing over the last year now. A nice bull flag can been on the daily chart (below) with the $60-65k target extension. The when however.. By the end of the October or not at all.
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All this FUD / fear - would you look how well that support trend line is respected.
I don't know who sells on the line but they need to stop trading.
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Thought this was interesting. The Bears tried their best to push price action back under the 50-day EMA today. The result was a powerful rejection the bulls absorbing the sell volume.
Target should be achieved soon.
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Expecting target to be achieved this week following the breakout of resistance.
Trade closed: target reached
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25 days later than planned, hey ho.
64K first resistance test. Once broken it is off to 80k.
Bull trap tottaly forget about bullrun, soon redistribution will happen
without_worries
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@santana2331, To test this theory price action needs to confirm resistance of $46.6 - 46.7k, which is the 0.5 fib level. That would be a significant event. Why? It would print a lower high following the break of market structure (the orange line).
If that happens there is no new all time high in the remainder of this year. A lower high here would be very bearish indeed. This all contradicts the on-chain analysis indicating an increased number of Bitcoin leaving exchanges.
Who knows. Watch the 46.6k level closely, a candle body, even daily closing above here will be like throwing a match on petrol.
sashakusak
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@without_worries Wow you were spot on! Match on petrol right after the daily close above 46.6k yesterday. Wonderful! 👍🏼
vishweshwaran26
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Update please.
without_worries
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@vishweshwaran26, The last update I made "For current price action watch the 43k level (green line, 21 week EMA). If in the day a ahead a whole candle body closes below this line, it change things surely. "
remains valid. The weekly must close on the 21-week EMA.