Using TD-D-Wave To extrapolate future Bitcoin prices
TD-D-Wave(by Tom Demark) is similar to Elliot-Wave Theory but lessens the subjective "calls"/"changes" to wave counts done by most Elliot-Wave practicioners by implementing minimum requirements as far as candle counts (much like baseTD Indicator).
Won't go too far into the rules in this series of posts but encourage people to poke holes in this analysis where valid and for Elliot-Wave traders to share their current "counts".
TD-D-Wave can be used with Open, High, or Close. I used close for these charts and it's recommended in most material I've read.
This post will be the bullish hopium on Weekly Timeframe and I will either make more posts going into the bearish scenarios or just update underneath this one.
This chart shows that we topped in Dec. 2017 on a completed Wave 3 and ARE STILL working our way through a corrective Wave 4.
I have Wave-1 Qualification @ 211.85$ occuring early November 2015.
Wave-1 closing @ 310.55$ in July 2015.
Wave -2 closing @ 228.89$ in August 2015.
Wave-3 closing @ 18,953.00 in December 2017. Yeah, absurdly long-time for a Wave-3 BUT WE NEVER completed a valid Wave-4 and WE NEVER re-traced under Wave-2 low close.
Until we re-trace on a closing weekly basis under the marked Neon lines on chart ($228ish), I think this entire Wave Sequence is still valid.
Since we have a completed Wave-3, we don't have to use the Wave-1 rules for projecting potential Wave-5 Targets.
using Wave-3 conservatively...Wave-5 should target $30,524.43 in next
BTCUSD
bull run.
(we've also gone well past conservative re-trace targets for Wave-4 already).
Next posts will paint the bleak short/medium term bearish cycles we currently find ourselves in (all inside this OVER ARCHING wave 4 macro correction).
Won't go too far into the rules in this series of posts but encourage people to poke holes in this analysis where valid and for Elliot-Wave traders to share their current "counts".
TD-D-Wave can be used with Open, High, or Close. I used close for these charts and it's recommended in most material I've read.
This post will be the bullish hopium on Weekly Timeframe and I will either make more posts going into the bearish scenarios or just update underneath this one.
This chart shows that we topped in Dec. 2017 on a completed Wave 3 and ARE STILL working our way through a corrective Wave 4.
I have Wave-1 Qualification @ 211.85$ occuring early November 2015.
Wave-1 closing @ 310.55$ in July 2015.
Wave -2 closing @ 228.89$ in August 2015.
Wave-3 closing @ 18,953.00 in December 2017. Yeah, absurdly long-time for a Wave-3 BUT WE NEVER completed a valid Wave-4 and WE NEVER re-traced under Wave-2 low close.
Until we re-trace on a closing weekly basis under the marked Neon lines on chart ($228ish), I think this entire Wave Sequence is still valid.
Since we have a completed Wave-3, we don't have to use the Wave-1 rules for projecting potential Wave-5 Targets.
using Wave-3 conservatively...Wave-5 should target $30,524.43 in next
BTCUSD
bull run. (we've also gone well past conservative re-trace targets for Wave-4 already).
Next posts will paint the bleak short/medium term bearish cycles we currently find ourselves in (all inside this OVER ARCHING wave 4 macro correction).
Comment:
Whoops wrong link.
Comment:
Bearish Daily Count
As you Can see in the chart it appears we went through the entire cycle but the A,B,C correction after finishing "5" was because "C" never breached the the close of "A"...therefore we're still in a valid 5 Wave.
The green 9 coincides with a TD-Buy-Set Up (Doji candle) and coincides with my weekly view above supporting a turn-around rally from here targeting 6200-6800$. TD-D-Wave MOST powerful when you can combine it with traditional TDsignals.
Failure to turn around ...I have wave 5 on daily targeting $998.64.
As you Can see in the chart it appears we went through the entire cycle but the A,B,C correction after finishing "5" was because "C" never breached the the close of "A"...therefore we're still in a valid 5 Wave.
The green 9 coincides with a TD-Buy-Set Up (Doji candle) and coincides with my weekly view above supporting a turn-around rally from here targeting 6200-6800$. TD-D-Wave MOST powerful when you can combine it with traditional TDsignals.
Failure to turn around ...I have wave 5 on daily targeting $998.64.
Here is the current Weekly Bearish Wave count.
IMO...we are attempting to Go all the way through a 1-5, ABC TD-D-Wave WHILE INSIDE a corrective Wave 4 of the overall Bullish Macro BTC trend.
It's imperative that BULLS move us higher from here (weekly can go lower but closes need to start trending higher and satisfy conditions needed for TD-D-Wave4).
The ABC count is a rough drawing that aligns with a DAILY time-frame TD-D-WAVE count that I believe is active and valid (will follow up post for it).
Should we fail to turn here...my Most Bearish scenario has Weekly Wave 3 targeting $1059.63 and since Wave-5 is the longest time Wave...you can imagine what those potential targets would be :/
Should we move higher from here and complete a valid corrective Wave 4 (this current trend is BEARISH in nature) ...Wave 4 has potential for $6879.14 (I think anywhere 6200-7500$ makes sense).
Should Wave-4 go and complete from here...I have Wave 5 projections for ENDING this BEAR market (remember we are doing all of this inside a corrective Wave 4 of the overall Bullish BTC Trend) of $2,837.71.