Decided to look at the overall trendlines for the entirety of BTC on bitstamp on the weekly log chart and it is very very encouraging. Although it is in a giant rising wedge which will eventually break down (most likely once the bubble finally bursts) The good news is we could climb to almost 1 million per bitcoin by 2023 before that happens....of course it could break down sooner than that like many rising wedges tend to do but if it holds out until the apex the dip it would fall to would be from 900k all the way down to the 6,000s which is where we are currently in price action. Also, this strong bottom support line which has held consistent since 2012 is fastly approaching our current price action which means we should soon go up from here and not have to worry about dipping down under the current level after December. Of course this is all my opinion not financial advice I could be wrong and the strong line of support could eventually be broken although an extremely low probability. We should also get back to our all time high range by no later than the end of 2019(possibly sooner) and continue to only go up exponentially from there if the support line holds true which the past has shown us time and time again it will.
Comment
⋅
one important thing to mention is the top trendline of this rising wedge currently only has 2 touches....so it may not be a completely valid line yet...we will have to wait and see.
I like it. The wedge may be valid. All your doing is charting human emotions and keeping it simple. So all the hedge funds that are accumulating now will probably look to dump near the upper range of that wedge. I'm guessing somewhere around $50,000 next year, then the next correction will bring it back to around $20,000. And the cycle will continue. Of course, mass adoption, FOMO and politics may alter the course. But then again technical analysis is only an educated guess anyways. thanks for posting the chart.
DrDovetail
⋅
@Kevin098, thanks...I noticed the second peak/follow up crash in this wedge is about half the size of the first one and I imagine as we continue up the wedge the next peak/crash will be close to half the size as the last one too and it will likely continue to half as we go. . .meaning each next rise and fall should happen quicker. So I'm guessing the length of the valley between last years bull run and this next upcoming one will be cut in half as well. the valley between the last two peaks was from September 2015-April 2017(or 20 months) so my guess is the valley for this next one will only last around 10 months which I think started in August. so the next valley should hopefully be done by June of next year. Thanks to the upward slope of the wedge however we should still be slowly increasing in price during the rest of the current valley from December on.
dRends35
⋅
But its only hugged that lower line once since being worth peanuts. Still, its a nice thought...
DrDovetail
⋅
@dRends35, it does more touches than this actually show I didnt zoom in to get the bottom trendline perfectly precise until after this idea was posted. There's many more touches thsn currently shown here on the bottom trendline none of which have acted as anything but consistent support.
dRends35
⋅
@DrDovetail, I agree, but that was within one time period within the last bull market. It is relevant, but I wouldn't bet my arm it will act in a similar fashion again, especially as it is such a popular trendline. The market movers likely would use such landmarks against the retail trader
DrDovetail
⋅
@dRends35, great points...the only true certainty in this market is uncertainty.
SeanWevers
⋅
how does a value drop vertically by 99 % of its total value? that makes 0 sense mate. Even if not vertical, it makes no sense. Crypto will be a world traded currency when it passes 100k so i doubt the liquidation can ever reach that significant, and than what are they gonna liquidate into? it will be the death of crypto.
The price prediction tho does seem possible, but the incline will reduce on every wave.
DrDovetail
⋅
@SeanWevers, simple TA really...the height between the top trendline and the bottom near the beginning of the wedge is how I reached that drop level. I've seen many rising wedges drop to that exact length and some even further...of course there are also ones that don't hit the full drop target as well....the way this one can drop that far is maybe not a direct vertical plummet but over the span of a few weeks to a month. For it to do this the entire bubble will have to burst.
wargolynch
⋅
The target doesn't make any sense. The only pattern you can use on an entire market like this is a channel, or simply a trendline.
wargolynch
⋅
@Sessay, Look to SP500 index since 1872 for exemple (SPX on tradingview)
You can draw a giant rising wedge as well from 1872 to 2004, but in 1990 it just goes higher like this wedge never existed. A channel is the way to go with very large timeframe for an entire market history.