Bitcoin re-accumulation before halving FOMO -> $25,000 possible?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

Welcome at a new post! Back at Tradingview, back to posting my charts and views here, as Twitter is not providing me enough space to go for. Therefore decided to start posting weekly charts here on Bitcoin and the market. If an altcoin or another chart is providing a setup, I’ll post that one during weekdays as well.

So, what are we looking at with Bitcoin? Descending triangle? Bearish pattern? I don’t see it that way.

What I’m seeing in the charts here is the new period of accumulation after a parabolic move upwards. It’s not always the case that a parabolic move receives a 80% retracement afterwards, unless it’s the top of a marketcycle, which we’ve seen in 2017.

Bitcoin has seen a nice move upwards from $3,100 to $14,000, leaving a ton of buyers behind eager to buy back in as soon as possible. It also broke above the 100 Weekly MA and 21 Weekly EMA . Why is that important? Well, during the past bullmarket the 21EMA provided the support all along till 2017, causing the price of Bitcoin to move from $300 to nearly $20,000. Another indicator is the test of the 100 Weekly MA, however that only has seen a one-time test during January 2016.

Keyzones to watch for upcoming support levels from that;
- 21 EMA providing support around the $9,300 level (current status is that the 21 EMA is already moving there).
- 100 Weekly MA providing support around the $7,800 area (that’s the current level the 100 weekly MA is hanging on).

Also, during upwards bullmarket movements, Bitcoin has shown a history of 30-40% movements before continuing upwards. This is a very healthy movement for the market as it’s basically re-accumulating and breathing before it pushes further.

If we add the fundamentals to that, we’d come to some of the following ingredients for a potential upwards move;
- Bakkt is launching at the 23rd of September. However I’m not expecting an instant bullish reaction on the market, it could provide liquidity to investors who were not able to invest previously. This could generate new money towards the market, which is essentially a bullish step forwards.
- Potential ETF launch. Don’t underestimate this, still coming up.
- Halving in May 2020. From the previous examples of halvings (especially when you add the LTC halvings) this creates FOMO and the self-fulfilling prophecy of people buying ‘because of the halving and price will move upwards’. Expectations are reached that we’re going to see a new impulse wave / rally before the actual event takes place, not a terrible move down back to the six thousands.
- More and more companies accepting Bitcoin in their shops, which improves the mass adoption as well.
- Not only surprisingly enough we’ve got the potential rumours of a crisis coming in and big Wall Street guys starting to call for holding more gold in your portfolio than before. Essentially I believe Bitcoin has better features than gold (its also called the digital gold ) which would potentially lead to an even higher upwards move for Bitcoin at the end of 2020 or later, not a bearish signal.

Concluding; Re-accumulation now before the new FOMO hype towards the halving targeting $25,000.

However, we’ve still got the bearish descending triangle everybody is talking about. So given that people are seeing a descending triangle , this should break downwards? It doesn’t really happy that way. Generally when everybody sees one thing, the opposite happens.

Coming to a conclusion of this analysis I’m not expecting Bitcoin to make a huge dropdown in the coming period, I’m seeing this sideways notion as a re-accumulation phase before we’re going to make the new upwards movements towards the halving. Levels to watch are the 21EMA and 100MA on the weekly for potential indicators of continuation of the bullmarket.

And what about altcoins? Going back in time, the 21EMA test on the weekly was the signals for altcoins to start outperforming Bitcoin .

From mid January 2016 (the test) towards May 2016 the altcoins outperformed Bitcoin , while Bitcoin grinded upwards. After that the high was broken and the FOMO of the halving started. If indeed we’re going to see the retest of the 21EMA and some slight upwards movements, we could see some months of alts moving around. The real altseasons will normally start after the halving, when new money and FOMO starts to come in to the market.

Thanks for reading!
Great analysis. We're looking for a nice setup from Bitcoin. For now, we reckon Bitcoin is still dominating the capital inflow. Alt season may kick in after a better-defined trend from Bitcoin which it is set up nicely for the next impulsive wave
Good work. Great analysis. Look forward to the next one. I’m learning all the time reading about crypto trading. Thanks.
+1 Reply
@Rufio1985, happy to hear man!
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