Nathanael
Short

The Big Picture

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
892 11 8
Is it happening?

EDIT: I drew the C wave around 200 because according to Elliot, C wave is always at least the same length (or more) as wave A. However, that is just a guideline, and not a hardcore RULE. I do expect us to *at least* fall to where the A wave was $450.

Edit 2: As some others have pointed out, I may have had my count wrong. The (V) may be only a ( III             ), however it would not change the outcome. There still needs to be an ABC correction to (IV). Here is an image
snapshot
onemanatatime
2 years ago
that's way too far down! :o $688 (Bitstamp) is my guess before going back up for correction.
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Nathanael onemanatatime
2 years ago
$200 does seem insane. An EW guideline is that wave C usually falls between waves 3 and 4... in that case it could even fall into double digits. But thats just a guideline, not a rule. It also seems unrealistic even for the bearest of bears. I do feel like we will at least fall to the A, which was $450
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Nathanael
2 years ago
Here it is on log scale, makes it look much more believable.
snapshot
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flibbr PRO Nathanael
2 years ago
All previous bubbles have finished at least 2x previous ATH..

1 -> 32 -> 2
2 -> 8 -> 4
4 -> 15 -> 8
15 -> 260 -> 50
260 -> 1200 -> 500
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Nathanael flibbr
2 years ago
Thats a great observation! Who knows, but here is the entire BTC cycle as I count it.
snapshot
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Nathanael
2 years ago
As some others have pointed out, I may have had my count wrong. The (V) may be only a (III), however it would not change the outcome. There still needs to be an ABC correction to (IV). Like this:
snapshot
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RyNinDaCleM
2 years ago
From an Elliot Wave standpoint, If 1242 was indeed the 5th wave, It can technically drop anywhere between $1242 and the lowest price ever traded (Wave-2 can retrace up to 100% of the entire wave-1). Now I'm not saying it will fall to $.05, but it can. A wave 2 typically retraces 61.8% of wave-1. That said, it is completely reasonable to expect a drop to $474 (which has already happened, but it can consolidate around that price). The wave-4 of a lesser degree is not out of the question, either. Just because it hasn't dropped that deep before doesn't mean it can't happen now.

Your last chart is also a fair expectation. we haven't been near that trend line in a year. It is time to retest it for confirmation. It would allow for the retest of many levels that have not had a test since it was passed. These retests are essential to build confidence and confirm sustainability in these prices.
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Nathanael RyNinDaCleM
2 years ago
nice accurate prediction with 474, even though we have more to go
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Nathanael
2 years ago
It took a month longer then I thought it would, I did not expect it to consolidate for song long up in that triable, he is a more accurate target:
snapshot
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minbari PRO Nathanael
2 years ago
Dont you mean $12? lolol
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Miscbrah
2 years ago
very nice!
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