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Nathanael
Jan 8, 2014 12:28 AM

The Big Picture Short

Bitcoin / U.S. DollarMt.Gox

Description

Is it happening?

EDIT: I drew the C wave around 200 because according to Elliot, C wave is always at least the same length (or more) as wave A. However, that is just a guideline, and not a hardcore RULE. I do expect us to *at least* fall to where the A wave was $450.

Edit 2: As some others have pointed out, I may have had my count wrong. The (V) may be only a (III), however it would not change the outcome. There still needs to be an ABC correction to (IV). Here is an image
Comments
Miscbrah
very nice!
Nathanael
It took a month longer then I thought it would, I did not expect it to consolidate for song long up in that triable, he is a more accurate target:
minbari
Dont you mean $12? lolol
RyNinDaCleM
From an Elliot Wave standpoint, If 1242 was indeed the 5th wave, It can technically drop anywhere between $1242 and the lowest price ever traded (Wave-2 can retrace up to 100% of the entire wave-1). Now I'm not saying it will fall to $.05, but it can. A wave 2 typically retraces 61.8% of wave-1. That said, it is completely reasonable to expect a drop to $474 (which has already happened, but it can consolidate around that price). The wave-4 of a lesser degree is not out of the question, either. Just because it hasn't dropped that deep before doesn't mean it can't happen now.

Your last chart is also a fair expectation. we haven't been near that trend line in a year. It is time to retest it for confirmation. It would allow for the retest of many levels that have not had a test since it was passed. These retests are essential to build confidence and confirm sustainability in these prices.
Nathanael
nice accurate prediction with 474, even though we have more to go
Nathanael
As some others have pointed out, I may have had my count wrong. The (V) may be only a (III), however it would not change the outcome. There still needs to be an ABC correction to (IV). Like this:
Nathanael
Here it is on log scale, makes it look much more believable.
flibbr
All previous bubbles have finished at least 2x previous ATH..

1 -> 32 -> 2
2 -> 8 -> 4
4 -> 15 -> 8
15 -> 260 -> 50
260 -> 1200 -> 500
Nathanael
Thats a great observation! Who knows, but here is the entire BTC cycle as I count it.
onemanatatime
that's way too far down! :o $688 (Bitstamp) is my guess before going back up for correction.
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