Sawcruhteez
Short

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 183)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30

Previous analysis/position: Seeing signs of a reversal and very unimpressed with volume on breakout. However decided to hold off on re opening shorts due to green 6 on the TD’ Sequential / sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,000 - $7,050 | R = $7,125
BTCUSDSHORTS: Currently testing 30,000 for support (was resistance). If it finds support here we could be looking at a Bulkowski Big W.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = +4.92% and making bullish cross
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +1.65% | 128 = -3.91%
Volume: Very unconvincing. Remains below MA on daily and that is a strong indication to me that this is only a temporary squeeze.
FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,161 | 0.382 = $7,462
Candlestick analysis: Tweezer top/bearish spinning top forming on daily.
Ichimoku Cloud: As expected the cloud and Kijun-Sen are acting as resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Green 7 indicates two days left to the upside.
Visible Range: Low volume node from $7,100 - $7,300 with 3 month look back.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.35% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +10.63% | 2w = +12.06% | 1m = -14.56%
Bollinger Bands: Last two daily candles closed outside BB. Feels very similar to July 19th.
Trendline: Descending triangle . Could also connect August 22 - August 26
Daily Trend: choppy
Fractals: DOWN = $6,210 | UP = $8,321
On Balance Volume: Following price, no div’
ADX: ADX finding support at 15?
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div’ on weekly. Pulling back on daily and about ready to create a bear div’ as well.
RSI (30 setting): W = 50.02 | D = 51.78
Stoch: Overbought on daily. Plenty of room to go on 3d.

Wyckoff:

"Point 11 gives us our last opportunity to cover any remaining longs and our first inviting opportunity to take a short position."

Summary: Feeling very confident in selling this bounce. Nothing about it makes me feel like it will be sustainable. It is a short squeeze and it is not causing FOMO buyers to pile on like it did in April.

Due to green 7 on TD Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry.

It rarely works out like that and I will be prepared to start opening shorts today if we continue to retrace much further. Will be watching for today’s candle to retrace 50% or more in relation to yesterday’s candle to indicate that this rally is exhausted.

Will be sticking with the plan of shorting alts instead of BTC’.
it seems that we just retraced greater than 50% of yesterdays candle. Are you watching for the daily to close 50% lower than yesterday? Or was that enough for you to determine the rally is exhausted?
+1 Reply
@Zlungz, Will be watching closely and waiting for the close. Also watching for violation of the green trend line.

Reply
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