kidze

My outlook on BTCUSD

Short
kidze Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
My plan for BTCUSD is: short any rally from here onward. If price goes up, add to short, price rallies, add to short.

Target is the 0.786 retracement level at ~4300. This level is also the D target of AB = CD in which AB is the move from 10k to 5k7.

The setup will be disqualified if and only if price moves above 6800.

I have a ultimate target at 2600 which is the target for the descending triangle however that looks too extreme at the moment. I will re-evaluate when price reaches my first target at 4300.

I gotta say this is a very high probability setup.
Stay safe traders!
Comment:
I just took 20% profit when it reaches 4813. Still watching very closely until 4300.

For those who misses the move it is too late right now. Wait for a good bounce to initiate short.
Comment:
I just took another 30% of my position off. This has been incredible so far. I will restrain from my exuberant reaction after today.


Remaining calm, I would say any bounce will happen at any time. However, I do not think this is it. I don't think bottoms are formed as a single V shape. I think it will be more likely a spike down, and then a soft shoulder following it, meaning a second drop. I would wait for that second drop to exit my position fully.

Good luck trading out there guys!
Comment:
Looking at the chart for a while and judging the context at the moment, my instinct tells me that this is not the bottom. Nobody knows the future but that is my take. I don't think the scenario now is the same as 2014's.

I can absolutely be wrong, but I am expecting a 'soft shoulder' of some sort to start initiate long
Comment:
I closed half of my short position.

I am still expecting 3100~3200 for the last flush of those stubborn BTC holders.

But I do not disagree with starting to add some long positions here.

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