major trend change

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
745 14 5
market activity above wave 4 signals major trend change is in progress
True that we'd have to have a couple of down days after that recent ride up. The bots are programmed to take profit and then to get long for the upswing.
That may be true, and I'm no expert on EW, but that's the weirdest 12345 count I've seen so far...
+1 Reply
Yes, this plus the fact that bitcoin spiked above the 50% retracement of the move from 2 makes me think we have bottomed. Interestingly though, both Litecoin and Dogecoin topped at the 38.2% and 50% retracements from 2 which implies that they have at least another wave down to go, so the downtrend for the alt coins should continue for a while.
I see a nice impulse on the 15min chart, following a triangle too.
chessnut chessnut
...on okcoin and huobi...
I don't think we finished the final Wave C down. Specifically, I think that the the final wave (v) of 5 of V of C has just begun (my chart doesn't show the smallest wave (v)).

Further, we have Fibonnaci Clusters for estimated end points of waves 5 and V at 0.618 of waves 1-3 and I-III, respectively. These Fibonacci Clusters show an estimated end point of approx 960 Yuan ($140-$160).

BTC-CNY - Final Leg Down
+1 Reply
chessnut Unapologetic_Capitalist
your 1-2 and 3-4, and I-II and III-IV are totally overlapping.
1-2, 3-4 are indeed overlapping because, I believe, Wave V is an ending diagonal impulse wave of corrective Wave C (which is the only exception to the rule that 1 and 4 can't overlapped).

Similar analysis re ending diagonal for I-II and III-IV, as Corrective Wave C seems like an ending diagonal as well.

I could be wrong, but Wave C and Wave V being ending diagonals indicates, at least to me, that the bottom is near.
Unapologetic_Capitalist PRO Unapologetic_Capitalist
Further, both ending diagonals are following the 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal impulse wave exception, as opposed to the 5-3-5-3-5 rule for normal impulse waves.
BTCCNY EW juncture -  long opportunity, Big Mac special.

Interesting things happening on the smaller scales...
Here is a possible count that would make the most recent spike above $300 "wave 4 of C".

With a break above $340 I would start considering that a bottom was already in place.

+2 Reply
Nice count Kappy.
I believe we've hit bottom. I've detailed my reasoning here:
EW Analysis for BTCUSD - Bottom Is In
We're at about 214 as I write this (Superbowl Sunday). Is this wave count invalidated?
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