As we enter the 50th day of the Bitcoin' bear market, we keep hearing calls for lower levels almost to a euphoric state of bearishness similar to the euphoric state of bullishness we saw in late December. Market sentiment is always a key indicator of a reversal as we saw in the stock market the past two weeks. Too Bullish, a pullback is eminent, but it also works in reverse as well, too bearish, a reversal is eminent. But where, when, and how are only probable guesses. We never try and time tops and bottoms, which is why we did not sell the top at 19k we sold a little at 17k when we saw weakness. This was simply to lock in some profits and get into some cash. This was not to get out of the market as history and statistics have proven time and time again, traders under perform long term buy and hold portfolios.
Unless you have completely given up on bitcoin' and the space in general this is a buying opportunity and one I am not passing up but this is not an all in, I want to add as we have been doing in small positions.
The chart above shows the graphs of the top four in market cap. Interesting enough both XRP' and BTC' show more strength in advancing then they do in decline. In other-words, they advance much quicker than they decline. It only took bitcoin' 32 days to go from 5800 to 19500 but after 50 days we are only at 7800. This is the opposite for stocks where declines are quicker and harder than advances. Now some of this may be due to the lack of shorting means available in the spot market, where in the U.S. the only way to short is to sell your holdings. But this is also a sign that the market is still bullish, and shorting here becomes very risky, just like buying at 18-19k long was risky.
We are testing support levels, which were the levels that these coins broke through for their final leg up. A break of these levels could see additional weakness and additional buying opportunities. Once we get clarity from the SEC' which may be holding buyers back from entering the space, we could see a reversal. In addition the RSI levels are all at their lowest levels in a long time. I am simply taking a wait and see approach to the market and having made my list of what I am looking to buy on a reversal I am being patient and letting the market do its thing.
Bottom Line: This is not the end of bitcoin' and a year from now people will likely be kicking themselves in the butt for selling at 15k and not buying back. Funny at 18k BTC' 1250 ETH' and 90cent XLM' my buddies wanted to buy and couldn't wait to get in. Now with prices lower they are wondering if they should sell at a loss. This is typical herd mentality, and why you want to position contrarian to the view of the herd.
Wait, we are not bouncing with all that magical millions that everyone had under their pillows? I thought we are in the new age of mass adaption. I thought there are bujillions of dollars in ever household waiting to rush in.
That's amazing how this is a new reality now. Just a few weeks ago you could get punched in the face just for mentioning $8000. And here we are. I wonder what happened to all those fanatics who sold their kidney to buy bitcoin for $18000. Where is that HODL thing now? I am not selling, are you selling? No? Then who is selling? The funny part is that bitcoin can take quite a bit of time to recover and most fanatics will sell at loss by then. And bitcoin will be over 20000$ this year, again, because the market for selling dreams never goes out of date.
davifr
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@scinar03, "market for selling dreams never goes out of date" I like this phrase.
This clearly isn’t working, although you’ve been very optimistic for the last month or so, and I appreciate that but my wallet clearly isn’t. I’ve already lost nearly half my net worth on all the big coins, including Litecoin — which you assumed was going to go higher than the $300-400 range. I’m still in a profit now, but not nearly as much as when it was in that range. The smaller altcoins, I’ve lost a lot of money on, but I’m not selling for a loss, but I may have to. How can you be optimistic that the markets are going to bounce back to December levels when China, South Korea, Russia, India and now the US are cracking down ? China and India are banning all crypto — so there goes any hope of NEO making it big right, since it’s under Chinese jurisdiction ? And with what’s going on with Tether now... like this is really really bad. The markets ranked in September because of one country — China. Now a lot of the big power players are cracking down... optimism is one thing, but your influence on a lot of your followers is also another. A lot of people, including myself, have a lot of money on the line here. If you’re going to say these things consistently (which you have for quite some time, yet the markets have been getting worse week by week), please have some sort of justification in order to secure our beliefs in this.
TanVichitrananda
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@Tgleason, He has 0 obligation to make you any money, if you follow any advice from random internet strangers and lose money thats on you. If you invested more than you can afford to lose thats on you. China and india are not banning cryptocurrencies, but then again, don't listen blindly, do your own research
NoCode326
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@Tgleason, If you have half of your net worth riding on what some unpaid trading view trader sees and 'recommends' and you question him/her and yourself, then sell now and walk away. With all due respect you have no place in the markets. Says a 20+ year veteran trader.
That's amazing how this is a new reality now. Just a few weeks ago you could get punched in the face just for mentioning $8000. And here we are. I wonder what happened to all those fanatics who sold their kidney to buy bitcoin for $18000. Where is that HODL thing now? I am not selling, are you selling? No? Then who is selling? The funny part is that bitcoin can take quite a bit of time to recover and most fanatics will sell at loss by then. And bitcoin will be over 20000$ this year, again, because the market for selling dreams never goes out of date.