I'm short on time but wanted to post what I am watching today. My buy orders are in place for the Fib levels noted. I still think we will come down to at least the first level before making any kind of significant run north again but could also come down to the second level as well. These are two price areas I think will be acted on heavily if they are reached.
Good luck!
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Here is a 30 minute view of the situation. C waves always have 5 sub-waves. If this chart is correct, then we should start seeing the 5th sub-wave start to move down towards its final destination. What is the final destination? The 1.0 Fib is the ideal location for a turn, HOWEVER, the price could extend on down to the 1.272 Fib as well. I plan to have orders at the 1.0 and will continue to accumulate if the price continues to the lower Fib.
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There is the possibility that I have my top yellow line too tight and the price comes down to the purple line, bounces back up to form something that looks like an inverted Head and Shoulders, sucks everybody in, and then dumps for the final wave 5 down.
Sometimes you have to think like the Honey Badger. :0)
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Here is what that potential fake out might look like.
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It looks like they are taking the more direct approach. The next hour or so is very critical. Wave 4 should not penetrate back into Wave 1 by any real significant amount. Wicks touching wicks should not be a problem but a large surge north closing candles into Wave 1 could negate this pattern. It's holding so far but needs to be monitored for failure.
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Here's 2 hour view. We got some wick on wick in Wave 1 and 4 but no significant overlap in the candle bodies. If this holds and continues to turn over we are still on track for sub-10K prices IMO.
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Emphasis on the word "IF"
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I may have screwed the pooch on that count. What I have marked as wave 3 could actually be the end of wave 5 making a new touch to the bottom of what may be a larger triangle. Even so, this current wave up is topping out and I'm going put on a long around 10.4 10.5 on the pullback if possible. There will be more chop along the way but it's either take a long now and try to make a few bucks or wait to the end of the triangle to get down to around 10.2 again if possible. I'd rather be in than out right now.
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If you extend the line you can form a triangle or just call it a wedge. The results would be the same
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For the previous count to play out the price pretty much has to stop right here and collapse back down. If that does not happen, then something like the wedge may be more likely.
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A daily view of how it may play out. You can see how we bounced off the 50 ema to form another touch point for the wedge. If we are going to the moon one day, this may actually be a better way to get there. If this plays out, breaking below 10K may be off the table. This market is a fickle bitch but you have to change as the conditions change.
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If we are done here the next 4 hour candle should start taking us higher.....
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This looks to have been a large ABC correction with 5 sub-waves for the C down. I tried to play the triangle and got bitch slapped off of my position but am long again. Very long.... The C wave looks to be over, but you have to stay on your toes if you take a position. The RSI is getting to the oversold area and the pull back looks good. As everyone is panicking I'm trying to pick up more BTC. Maybe this time my position will stick. Personally I think all this Bitcoin talk in DC etc. is good in the long run. It makes people aware that they have options...….
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Keep in mind that if the current bottom does not hold (yellow line) BTC will continue to fall until AT LEAST the 1.272 Fib. around 9K and could even spike below that Fib. If that Fib does not hold just GTFO of the way untill it bottoms for awhile.
yes we are in a triangle and sideways for a couple of weeks. whales are reaccumulating or maybe off loading one has to wait and see. Meanwhile I will trade the range.
ferGOD
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Wooooow! tanks!
ferGOD
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Thanks a lot for the help
nagihatoum
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the purple line is a major trend from the beginning of the bull run,if it breaks could be very bearish and bitcoin not recover quickly?
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@nagihatoum, Yes, it is very Bearish. But how does the market rekt the most people? Sell off below the purple line (9Ks), recover way above the purple line ($12-16K), and then sell off again to even lower lows. (7K-8K) Then after everybody is bleeding from every possible orifice on their body Bitcoin climbs its way out to new All Time Highs. Just a theory.