We just had our pump as expected. 300 brave whale HODLers lead by King Leonidas himself are defending the narrow 6K passage to prevent Bitcoin from spilling. Sadly, they will all die for nothing in the end.
Project Phoenix has been initiated to revive the up trend once again. Let's review further options for Bitcoin.
Key Dates:
- Friday or July 27th - expiration of CME futures
- Aug 10th - possible approval of the 1st ever Bitcoin ETF by SEC (not likely, 25-30% chance of happening).
Key Levels:
6800 resistance (also D1 EMA 50)
5800 support, blue horiz channel
Supply line / Pitchfork upper channel (purple) resistance
D1 RSI bands up trend (orange) also green trend support line
Max Resistance Point = 6800 + D1 EMA 50 + Supply line
To become bullish we need to:
- get support of a D1 EMA 50
- break out of the pitchfork down channel/supply line
- break 6800 prev high
- break 7000 psychological level
- get a golden cross on H1 and subsequently on H4. Any upwards move until the golden cross on H4 is a correction of a larger bearish trend.
- in the future break 7800 prev high, D1 EMA 100, D1 EMA 200
1. red WXY upwards correction (could also been 123 of an up trend)
red arrows show possible price moves, mostly to the down side. But we could go to around 7400 (100% ofW)
2. blue WXY down trend continuation
In this scenario Bitcoin will not break 6800, bounce down to 5800 (pitchfork channel) instead, then bounce up to 6500 (purple supply line), drop to a new ATL 5550, then have a major pump before SEC ETF date.
First of all, SEC may not approve the BTC ETF, they could also move their verdict to a later date. Realistically, CME ETF could launch in Q1 2019 if launch at all.
ETF will bring security and liquidity (more spot volume) to the market for the few rich institutional investors, but volatility will drop (no more crazy pumps).
In general, ETF is good for the crypto asset class, the news of the 1st approved ETF will likely be a major BTC price driver.
Right now spot volume on exchanges is dying, there's not much volume on CME/CBOE futures either.
The only "futures" market that's booming in volume is BitMEX, but they are not a true futures exchange like CME, they sell BTC CFDs contracts based on Poloniex price.
Look at Gold chart - PVT has risen a lot after Gold ETF was introduced, but this market has a max price cap now and doesn't move higher than that.
ETF's management will have to legally buy/sell BTC on exchanges to hedge their investor's money against sudden crashes and change of trend direction.
They will do it OTC so, it won't affect the BTC price on the exchanges.
3. Ascending ABCDE triangle (not likely)
We can form an ascending triangle to break 6800 before the futures expiration date July 27th to finish the entire correction and start the new up trend.
Elliott Wave rules allow for that: you can have a triangle only in Y of WXY or Z of WXYXZ or in the last X wave of either of them. This will be the last X of WXYXZ inside a larger degree (Y) of (WXY).
After that the entire (WXY) correction from 20K could be complete allowing for the new up trend to start.
This scenario is not likely because
- we're in a major bearish trend, we need weeks and months or a major global event to change that, you should have multiple confirmations for the up trend to start, and we currently don't have many of those
- the pump just before the futures expiration date seems reckless from the point of money management. Millions are at stake, they can't afford to have a large move just before the last day.
Usually we consolidate for a few days before the futures, then a natural sell-off occurs. So expect a sell-off after the 27th.
A note on the futures:
Last time the futures expired at $5800, so it's not likely for BTC to stay at the same level (no profit). We will either move a $1000 up to $7800 (also not likely), or stay at $6800, or move $2000 down to $4800.
4. We are stuck in horiz channel in a trading range between 5800 and 6800.
Project Phoenix has been initiated to revive the up trend once again. Let's review further options for Bitcoin.
Key Dates:
- Friday or July 27th - expiration of CME futures
- Aug 10th - possible approval of the 1st ever Bitcoin ETF by SEC (not likely, 25-30% chance of happening).
Key Levels:
6800 resistance (also D1 EMA 50)
5800 support, blue horiz channel
Supply line / Pitchfork upper channel (purple) resistance
D1 RSI bands up trend (orange) also green trend support line
Max Resistance Point = 6800 + D1 EMA 50 + Supply line
To become bullish we need to:
- get support of a D1 EMA 50
- break out of the pitchfork down channel/supply line
- break 6800 prev high
- break 7000 psychological level
- get a golden cross on H1 and subsequently on H4. Any upwards move until the golden cross on H4 is a correction of a larger bearish trend.
- in the future break 7800 prev high, D1 EMA 100, D1 EMA 200
1. red WXY upwards correction (could also been 123 of an up trend)
red arrows show possible price moves, mostly to the down side. But we could go to around 7400 (100% ofW)
2. blue WXY down trend continuation
In this scenario Bitcoin will not break 6800, bounce down to 5800 (pitchfork channel) instead, then bounce up to 6500 (purple supply line), drop to a new ATL 5550, then have a major pump before SEC ETF date.
First of all, SEC may not approve the BTC ETF, they could also move their verdict to a later date. Realistically, CME ETF could launch in Q1 2019 if launch at all.
ETF will bring security and liquidity (more spot volume) to the market for the few rich institutional investors, but volatility will drop (no more crazy pumps).
In general, ETF is good for the crypto asset class, the news of the 1st approved ETF will likely be a major BTC price driver.
Right now spot volume on exchanges is dying, there's not much volume on CME/CBOE futures either.
The only "futures" market that's booming in volume is BitMEX, but they are not a true futures exchange like CME, they sell BTC CFDs contracts based on Poloniex price.
Look at Gold chart - PVT has risen a lot after Gold ETF was introduced, but this market has a max price cap now and doesn't move higher than that.
ETF's management will have to legally buy/sell BTC on exchanges to hedge their investor's money against sudden crashes and change of trend direction.
They will do it OTC so, it won't affect the BTC price on the exchanges.
3. Ascending ABCDE triangle (not likely)
We can form an ascending triangle to break 6800 before the futures expiration date July 27th to finish the entire correction and start the new up trend.
Elliott Wave rules allow for that: you can have a triangle only in Y of WXY or Z of WXYXZ or in the last X wave of either of them. This will be the last X of WXYXZ inside a larger degree (Y) of (WXY).
After that the entire (WXY) correction from 20K could be complete allowing for the new up trend to start.
This scenario is not likely because
- we're in a major bearish trend, we need weeks and months or a major global event to change that, you should have multiple confirmations for the up trend to start, and we currently don't have many of those
- the pump just before the futures expiration date seems reckless from the point of money management. Millions are at stake, they can't afford to have a large move just before the last day.
Usually we consolidate for a few days before the futures, then a natural sell-off occurs. So expect a sell-off after the 27th.
A note on the futures:
Last time the futures expired at $5800, so it's not likely for BTC to stay at the same level (no profit). We will either move a $1000 up to $7800 (also not likely), or stay at $6800, or move $2000 down to $4800.
4. We are stuck in horiz channel in a trading range between 5800 and 6800.
Comment:
We just had a $800 candle on the rumor of BlackRock "considering" a Bitcoin Futures ETF. This proves that BTC ETF is a very sensitive matter for traders with high expectations. It's a 12% move, imagine what will happen on the news of ETF approval.
Bitcoin have smashed all resistance levels and reached 7400 (D1 EMA 100) but is still technically in an upwards ABC correction, since C < 1.618 of A.
We could be in a wave 3 of an up trend but then it's too shallow compared to wave 1 (1.272 of wave 1 - not impressive). An extension is needed.
Next targets:
- 7400 - get support of D1 EMA100
- 7650 - max target for today (D1 RSI Bands oversold)
- 7700 - 1.618 of wave A.
- 7800 - H&S target.
- 7900 - D1 EMA 200
Seems that 7800 is the likely target for the futures expiration date
So, we will probably try to retest 7800. And there's a golden cross on H4 coming to let us continue in an up trend. Bears have been squeezed and forced to cover above 6800, hence the big move with 2x the force.
Expect a shallow correction 23.6-38.2% max (the up trend is strong). We probably won't go below 7000 and the supply line. However, the longer we go sideways the more momentum we lose implying a possible reversal.
This is not a giant leading wedge, although it may seem like one, because leading wedges have a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
Turns out my prev pitchfork analysis predicting 6900 at the channel boundary cross on roughly this day was correct.
Bitcoin have smashed all resistance levels and reached 7400 (D1 EMA 100) but is still technically in an upwards ABC correction, since C < 1.618 of A.
We could be in a wave 3 of an up trend but then it's too shallow compared to wave 1 (1.272 of wave 1 - not impressive). An extension is needed.
Next targets:
- 7400 - get support of D1 EMA100
- 7650 - max target for today (D1 RSI Bands oversold)
- 7700 - 1.618 of wave A.
- 7800 - H&S target.
- 7900 - D1 EMA 200
Seems that 7800 is the likely target for the futures expiration date
So, we will probably try to retest 7800. And there's a golden cross on H4 coming to let us continue in an up trend. Bears have been squeezed and forced to cover above 6800, hence the big move with 2x the force.
Expect a shallow correction 23.6-38.2% max (the up trend is strong). We probably won't go below 7000 and the supply line. However, the longer we go sideways the more momentum we lose implying a possible reversal.
This is not a giant leading wedge, although it may seem like one, because leading wedges have a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
Turns out my prev pitchfork analysis predicting 6900 at the channel boundary cross on roughly this day was correct.
Comment:
Bitcoin has touched the bottom trend line of a giant D1 triangle and stopped.
We've got a golden cross on H4, W1 EMA 50 and D1 EMA100 support, H4 EWO momentum is still strong (no bar color change), but there is serious resistance ahead:
- 7650 (max possible oversold on D1 RSI bands)
- 7700 (61.8% of All Time and 1.618 of wave 1/A),
- 7800 major prev high resistance
- 7900 (D1 EMA200)
Until we're past 1.618 I can't really call it an up trend, more like and ABC upwards correction.
There's a triangle setup for the final wave v up, a grinding small trend support but we can also pullback to 23.6% (7200) or 38.2% (7000) before the final move. I think we can ultimately go as high as 8000, then bounce down to 7000 to make a right shoulder of a larger inverted H&S pattern and retest 8000 again right about the futures expiration time, then sell-off after negating the H4 golden cross.
We've got a golden cross on H4, W1 EMA 50 and D1 EMA100 support, H4 EWO momentum is still strong (no bar color change), but there is serious resistance ahead:
- 7650 (max possible oversold on D1 RSI bands)
- 7700 (61.8% of All Time and 1.618 of wave 1/A),
- 7800 major prev high resistance
- 7900 (D1 EMA200)
Until we're past 1.618 I can't really call it an up trend, more like and ABC upwards correction.
There's a triangle setup for the final wave v up, a grinding small trend support but we can also pullback to 23.6% (7200) or 38.2% (7000) before the final move. I think we can ultimately go as high as 8000, then bounce down to 7000 to make a right shoulder of a larger inverted H&S pattern and retest 8000 again right about the futures expiration time, then sell-off after negating the H4 golden cross.
Comment:
The larger H&S has a neckline at 7800, so, we only have to touch 7800 for now, 8000 is unnecessary. But then again, expect some overthrow at extremes to lure some bulls in a trap. But the looks of it, we will have a wave v in a couple of hours, but here are some factors also supporting a slight pullback:
- wave v of C (c of Y) could be already in, making C = 1.272 a correction
- we just got the 1st darker bar on H4 EWO - momentum is starting to cool off.
- none of the alts nor the futures have golden crossed on H4 yet
- if we lose W1 EMA50 support it could be harder to get it back
- we are above EMAs 12,26 on all TFs except M15 - could propagate up from there
Some notes:
- H1 bollinger bands are starting to squeeze - expect a move in either side in a few hours
- we have 5 straight days of rising bull volume on D1. Tomorrow could see some selling if today's bull volume will be lower then yesterday's.
- on BTCUSDSHORTS only some of the Shorts have covered, there's plenty of room for more covering as shorts drop below 21000 or become squozen.
- wave v of C (c of Y) could be already in, making C = 1.272 a correction
- we just got the 1st darker bar on H4 EWO - momentum is starting to cool off.
- none of the alts nor the futures have golden crossed on H4 yet
- if we lose W1 EMA50 support it could be harder to get it back
- we are above EMAs 12,26 on all TFs except M15 - could propagate up from there
Some notes:
- H1 bollinger bands are starting to squeeze - expect a move in either side in a few hours
- we have 5 straight days of rising bull volume on D1. Tomorrow could see some selling if today's bull volume will be lower then yesterday's.
- on BTCUSDSHORTS only some of the Shorts have covered, there's plenty of room for more covering as shorts drop below 21000 or become squozen.
Comment:
We have touched 7600 - very close to D1 RSI oversold. Looks like this is the top and a pullback will follow. There's an increase in bear volume, a shooting star bear candle on top with a large wick. 2 bear candles on H4 with large wick
H1 EWO/IOTA histogram has reached zero - shows that ETH has 5 waves completed and is ready for correction. Will soon happen for other alts too.
Most alts are already at 23.6% retracement with bear engulfment
H1 EWO/IOTA histogram has reached zero - shows that ETH has 5 waves completed and is ready for correction. Will soon happen for other alts too.
Most alts are already at 23.6% retracement with bear engulfment
Comment:
Be careful, this could be a major bull trap and the start of 2018 capitulation. All this crazy pumping could lead to a drop to 4K as in 2014 Bear Capitulation
Comment:
We have lost support of M15 EMA50, and will lose M15 EMA100 soon
triangle target is 7000 (also 38.2%)
23.6% is 7200 (also M15 EMA200)
Another move up is possible after the correction
triangle target is 7000 (also 38.2%)
23.6% is 7200 (also M15 EMA200)
Another move up is possible after the correction
Comment:
Triangle or not, I'm ready to drop:
We now have a bear flag with target 7070
The longer we stay in this formation the bigger the drop will be
RSI was overbought, now going down
RSI and EWO divergence on M15
RSI Bands max low M15 7250, H1 7050
on Ichimoku we are rejected by the H1 trend EMA26 with EMA bear cross, are below EMA12 on H4, can't penetrate flat top on M15
EMAs are slowly flattening at the top
zero volume follow through
on H1 ETH are IOT below EMA50 and ready to go down, LTC will likely break the trend line. They have reached the middle bollinger
We now have a bear flag with target 7070
The longer we stay in this formation the bigger the drop will be
RSI was overbought, now going down
RSI and EWO divergence on M15
RSI Bands max low M15 7250, H1 7050
on Ichimoku we are rejected by the H1 trend EMA26 with EMA bear cross, are below EMA12 on H4, can't penetrate flat top on M15
EMAs are slowly flattening at the top
zero volume follow through
on H1 ETH are IOT below EMA50 and ready to go down, LTC will likely break the trend line. They have reached the middle bollinger
Comment:
The expectations of an up trend still seem to be strong, we haven't seen much sell-off. The wave count is not clear, not sure how it plays out, but I think bullish breakout is more likely. It needs to touch 7600 or 7800, then go down. Volume is consolidating before breakout, we are above EMAs on M15 and staying strong. We can have
- wxy in a wxy (red count) or
- small 12345 leading wedge (green count, wave i of wave 5, 5-3-5-3-5 with overlapping 1 and 4)
the 7500 target for wave iii has been hit
- wxy in a wxy (red count) or
- small 12345 leading wedge (green count, wave i of wave 5, 5-3-5-3-5 with overlapping 1 and 4)
the 7500 target for wave iii has been hit
Comment:
and here's the pump, we just touched the bottom of the giant triangle at 7570. Could be the top for today. In the next few hours hours we can try to form an asc triangle with a top side at 7500. If we don't break it the trend was just an upwards correction. In 2014 we went past the prev high and EMA200, touched 8000 in today's prices, then crashed down.
Comment:
Ok, we have touched 7700 as expected. 7700 is 1.618 of wave 1/A and 61.8% of ATH 20000, does not prove anything - we could still end up bearish, but the bias is bullish, could qualify for an up trend. The wave count is not clear, I see 3 possible scenarios:
1. sideways continuation of wave (iv) in nested wxy patterns, slowly climbing up. Watch for divergence, RSI overbought and volume consolidation before pumps.
2. wave (v) of wave 1 has just ended, we could have a sharp wave 2 correction down to 7075 (38.2%), then a wave 3 up to 8000. Expect buy orders kick in at around 7200, traders will be buying the dips. Today's possible min according to RSI Bands is 7200 (H1 EMA100).
3. We are close to overbought on D1, could start declining any day if momentum is lost, but another leg up to tick D1 RSI 70 is still possible. Expect a bounce at 7000 anyways. Note that H4 RSI is extreme 90 - that have happened only 3 times during the 2014 bear market and only once in 2018. And both times it was a bull trap. This value is more common for a raging up trend.
1. sideways continuation of wave (iv) in nested wxy patterns, slowly climbing up. Watch for divergence, RSI overbought and volume consolidation before pumps.
2. wave (v) of wave 1 has just ended, we could have a sharp wave 2 correction down to 7075 (38.2%), then a wave 3 up to 8000. Expect buy orders kick in at around 7200, traders will be buying the dips. Today's possible min according to RSI Bands is 7200 (H1 EMA100).
3. We are close to overbought on D1, could start declining any day if momentum is lost, but another leg up to tick D1 RSI 70 is still possible. Expect a bounce at 7000 anyways. Note that H4 RSI is extreme 90 - that have happened only 3 times during the 2014 bear market and only once in 2018. And both times it was a bull trap. This value is more common for a raging up trend.
A few notes, anyways:
- we have a double bottom at 5800 only on Bitstamp (yellow circle). On other exchanges we don't touch 5800 for the 2nd time. So, the 1st touch could also be the bottom.
- support of H4 EMA 200 = bullish
- golden cross on H1, negating prev death cross. Another 4-8 days of general up trend are likely if there's no cross negation. ETH, LTC, IOT, BCH have also crossed, EOS will cross soon.
- bollinger bands are widening, another leg up in wave 5 is possible. We will retest 6800 soon.
- we have failed to touch the pitchfork median red line at 5800 (implies weakness of bears), so the whole move from 7800 down could be reversed to the up side. However it's always 50/50 with pitchforks, we could have touched the median line of another pitchfork pulled from diff pivots.
- usually we have a large drop after touching/piercing through EMA100 on D1 (capitulation of 2014, there was only a small pullback after touching D1 EMA50) or a cross of EMA50 and EMA100 on H4 (bear markets of 2016 and 2017) so keep an eye on those EMAs
- flat top on H4 ichimoku = we're not likely to drop below 6450 until July 20th.
- we have gapped above the H4 ichimoku resistance cloud on the futures - not a problem for bulls any more
- we're oversold on H1 and H4 on BTC and the futures, so a pullback is likely soon
- 7650 max possible top on D1 RSI Bands.