FlaviusTodorius67
Long

Shortterm upside potential to 7k

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The shorts came down, however, they are still too high. I think we'll see a pump to the 7000 area, where MA200 and log res are strong resistances.
Then a leg down to the 4800 area.

The final low will be early 2019 in the 3k area imho.

Keep in mind, the peak of next rally, starting in 2020 at the latest, is at least 100k.
Good times are ahead even though BTC likes to play dead at times :) Else it would be too easy hehe.

Sep 28
Comment: I should add that, the sooner BTC pumps, the higher it can go, since the log resistance and the MA200 are slowly creeping down. There could be a short squeeze to kill off the remaining longs up to 7200 within the next week or so.
Alternatively, BTC does it's upward creeping dance, slowly to 7000. These are both scenarios that I currently see.
Oct 15
Comment: If the candle closes below or around 7k, and doesn't follow the push through the log resistance, it might drop further as indicated in the chart. If we continue to push through the resistance, the chart is invalidated. Looking for the close of the candle and the direction btc is taking the next days.
Oct 15
Comment: Well, the daily candle close below the logarithmic resistance is not a strong sign. I am inclined to believe that this whole move was orchestrated to kill off shorts, so that we can resume with the downtrend.
Oct 25
Comment: Basically, this chart is still valid, and as long as the logarithmic resistance has not been broken, the above path can happen, and BTC can easily fall into the high 4xxx range. Therefore, unless we get a decisive move, I will just update the old charts here that are still valid, instead of posting new ones that look exactly the same :)
Oct 25
Comment: P.S: Stocks get a beating, which means that BTC could follow. This increases the chances for dumps. Long/short ration also going in direction of longs again, also increasing the likelihood of dumps. But BTC could also just go on sideways. We'll see soon.
last push and then down?
Reply
What bothers me is that around end of Aug we should have set a new low around 5300 in what many thought it was a bear flag but instead the 6000 area has hold multiple times and we have not set a new lower low yet. I don’t think BTC will do a 2014 bear market cycle, instead I think we might get stuck in this range for a while until we hit the 200Ma on the weekly. I think there is a lot of pressure to keep the price above 6k and as of lately you can see there has been a change of wind direction like google supporting crypto ads, IMF changing the tone about crypto acceptance and many other investment instruments that were not there in 2014-15 like BAkkt, the looming prospect of an ETF and so on. Many of the alts are -90% correction (even projects like Cardano), BTC at 3k will truly mean disastrous consequences for alts.
Reply
@Poukitoun, Yes, the possibility of the above scenario is declining more and more, the longer we stay above 6k. I we don't go below 6k soon, I am pretty sure that your scenario will unfold. BTC is definitely in a better position than 2014/15, yes indeed. The chances for a bearmarket scenario are decreasing every month. If we don't go below 6k by november, I am convinced that we stay in this range until the next rally.
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