RogueDave

BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Count -Wave 5 Alternative Count is Dead

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We are in Wave IV folks, it's not done yet. Here I will document the death of the imposter, the usurper, the Alternative Count has crashed and burned. Some have told a story, but the data exposed them as heretics, liars, fakes and frauds. They profess to offer wave counts, but they do not offer Elliott Wave Counts. For in Elliott Wave Counts, there are guidelines and rules, hard, immutable rules. One of those is that a wave 4, may not intrude upon or overlap into the space of a wave 1 of the same degree.

Some have claimed that Wave IV ended back on July 16-17 at the 1830 level, and the sprint to 2938 marked the start of Wave V, a new bull market phase for Bitcoin . The run up to the top looked pretty compelling. It could be counted in a solid motive or impulse fashion. No overlaps or intrusions.



The post high correction even counted pretty well. An A-B-C down to the 2400 level. This is where the false prophets of wave counts put a stake in the ground and declared correction, wave 2 was complete! Onward and upward!! And they got what the wanted, sort of. An upward wave started and completed at the 2825 level. The problem is it only included 3 upward waves, not 5, and then began a serious correction. The correction that would establish wave 4. A correction that proved fatal.



In the count above, which contains 3 degrees of waves, the lowest is a plain digit, the second is a digit inside parenthesis, and the third degree uses lower case Roman numerals, i for 1, ii for 2, and iii for 3. After the correction to establish wave 4 had completed, a "double 3" that counted as A-B-C - X - A-B-C, it was possible to determine the level of wave 4. Only then, by examining the up move that preceded it, could a determination be made. Was wave 5 underway, and the Alternative Count valid? Like a forensic examiner, I carefully examined the up move, using very detailed 15 minute and even 5 minute charts. The best count I could come up with is above. I even tried to make it work by counting inside out. Make it a 5 wave move up, somehow. Nope. Push wave i downward. Nope, no luck. Wave 4 stuck its spear cleanly into the heart of the imposter, the usurper, the Fake Wave 5, by intruding into the only place wave 1 & wave 2 could reasonable be placed.


I will soon return to update the Wave IV count. Long Live Wave IV, the rightful heir to the throne.
One of the 3 scenarios I laid out is playing out. Can you guess which one?

Comments

What do you think about OMG? I've yet to see any analysis on this new coin
Reply
@MXZ174, It's too new for Elliott Wave analysis to have any meaning. They did the ICO, then got opened on an exchange that feeds to TradingView. If they are trading on others not feeding TV, then that data isn't available.

From a more fundamental perspective, When I reviewed the White Paper (business & funding model, management team, etc., it looked attractive. But I'm not a coder and cannot express an opinion on the SW Development team, reasonableness of the development road map, etc.

Reply
MXZ174 RogueDave
Thanks @RogueDave ! I should add that I've recently started following you and have been very impressed with your analysis of BTC.

I figured this might be the case with OMG, I was also impressed by the white paper and that's why I became interested in the coin.

Thanks again for your quick response and all of your fantastic analysis posts!
Reply
@MXZ174, Thank you for the kind words, and thanks for following.
Reply
What do you think about Litecoin? Wave 5?
Reply
RogueDave Kim7289
@Kim7289, LTC is a mess. LOL - It could be in a lower degree wave 5, but since it has never exceeded its all time high, it could be said that it is in a higher degree 3. Even if it is counted from it's all time low, the higher degree count puts it in a wave 3. What's important for LTC, is to break above $65, and clear the resistance that is holding it back.

Reply
Kim7289 RogueDave
@RogueDave, Very helpful thanks a lot :-)
Reply
RogueDave Kim7289
@Kim7289, There are some errors in the count pictured, but that analysis was a throw together, not a serious study.
Reply
Thanks. Wonderful stuff. Will be following you.
Reply
@usra, Thank you for the kind words and thank you for following.
Reply
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