Some have claimed that Wave IV ended back on July 16-17 at the 1830 level, and the sprint to 2938 marked the start of Wave V, a new bull market phase for Bitcoin . The run up to the top looked pretty compelling. It could be counted in a solid motive or impulse fashion. No overlaps or intrusions.
The post high correction even counted pretty well. An A-B-C down to the 2400 level. This is where the false prophets of wave counts put a stake in the ground and declared correction, wave 2 was complete! Onward and upward!! And they got what the wanted, sort of. An upward wave started and completed at the 2825 level. The problem is it only included 3 upward waves, not 5, and then began a serious correction. The correction that would establish wave 4. A correction that proved fatal.
In the count above, which contains 3 degrees of waves, the lowest is a plain digit, the second is a digit inside parenthesis, and the third degree uses lower case Roman numerals, i for 1, ii for 2, and iii for 3. After the correction to establish wave 4 had completed, a "double 3" that counted as A-B-C - X - A-B-C, it was possible to determine the level of wave 4. Only then, by examining the up move that preceded it, could a determination be made. Was wave 5 underway, and the Alternative Count valid? Like a forensic examiner, I carefully examined the up move, using very detailed 15 minute and even 5 minute charts. The best count I could come up with is above. I even tried to make it work by counting inside out. Make it a 5 wave move up, somehow. Nope. Push wave i downward. Nope, no luck. Wave 4 stuck its spear cleanly into the heart of the imposter, the usurper, the Fake Wave 5, by intruding into the only place wave 1 & wave 2 could reasonable be placed.
I will soon return to update the Wave IV count. Long Live Wave IV, the rightful heir to the throne.
One of the 3 scenarios I laid out is playing out. Can you guess which one?
From a more fundamental perspective, When I reviewed the White Paper (business & funding model, management team, etc., it looked attractive. But I'm not a coder and cannot express an opinion on the SW Development team, reasonableness of the development road map, etc.
I figured this might be the case with OMG, I was also impressed by the white paper and that's why I became interested in the coin.
Thanks again for your quick response and all of your fantastic analysis posts!