Hello folks and followers to a new update on my Bitcoin 1.00% analysis! So many things happened after my last report where I posted a bearish cypher getting consolidated and indicating a bearish trend . At the time of writing BTC 1.00% was at 8212 and it started the downtrend at 8600 just $67 earlier than I thought. After that Bitcoin 1.00% has broken the important 61.8 fibo support and bounced at 7400 in the middle of nowhere, no supports, nothing more than a psychological point. Next fibo level is 78.6 at 7200, and makes sense that the price could get there, but forget about what makes more sense, because sometimes in this space there is just a group of people deciding where this is going.
I´m following the current ascending channel in the 15 min TF and it´s being interesting. The price just went a few dollars above the last high, and just when seems that is breaking out, bounced at the top of the channel to go back to the bottom. At the time of writing is out of the channel, just out but still in the edge, so no guarantees here to see where we are going. The market is out of volume , but it could be back suddenly if we make a new high. My take here is this, making a new significant high and breaking the ichimoku cloud above of it will have a high probability to confirm an uptrend that will come with brutal force and leaving the channel below the kumo by about $50 could confirm that the bears took control over again.
There is a couple of interesting harmonic patterns that I´ll follow to the T depending of where we are going.
Both points will have a significant drop or pump and are not definitive of a trend change, so I´ll be updating once we get to any of the levels.
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We just left that channel without any effect, so directions are still unknown. I expect bounces all over the current channel being meaningless.
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This is getting intense.
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Watch out this inverse HS, it may work.
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Ok we breakout, however there is not much volume. Just watch out to dont fall in a bull trap.
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So after yesterday bull trap and prompt pump we are just now in another key point. Bulls need to get the price to around 6700 and keep it stable if we want to see a rally to 8ish. Otherwise there is a head and shoulder getting form which could trigger another drop, and this time looks like 7150 could be the target.
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HS is set up, we don´t want the price getting 100 points below from current price, that could easily kill any bull run.
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Another bull trap? Failed inverse head and shoulders breakout?
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Nice breakout of the triangle! Now pullback and straight to 7800.
I would NOT call it a Bull trap, Mr Jungle, as much as a remap of a previous AI BOT map from April. If curious, check my map for another NON-TA viewpoint of how TA is being manipulated. Still following you, so please do not interpret this as antagonistic. LOL
These are nice points. I would like to add to your theory without going much into my own. I have this conspiracy theory that some whales are part of a bigger plan. And the actual orchestrator of this plan are called 'Team Evil.' And my theory is called Wild Theory because it does NOT follow TA, but is based on Team Evil anticipating TA and then concocting influence. Of course, Team Evil COUNTS on everyone trusting their own TA.
My game is to predict what TEAM EVIL will do next. So herein lies my bet. I am betting that Team Evil told some whales to buy up as much of the MT Gox OTC auction as possible. The play was that the bulls were supposed to carry the ball over the line way back when we were trying to breech 8600. EVIL was counting on Consensus 2018 to be the push. Then at the peak of a run to 10k BTC, possibly aided by a short squeeze, the whales would be allowed to cash in their coins. THEN.. the price would drop as the whales coordinated their drops.
This would create an boom and bust cycle. At the bottom, the whales, Wallstreet and TEAM EVIL or any combo of these, scoop up cheap BTC.. and the cycle repeats.
However..
The bulls could not muster enough energy to do the run... too much info was available about the Mt Gox OTC sale and the public got weary with that and other news.
So.. what is TEAM EVIL to do?
When the Bulls failed to breach 8600, the natural pull of the down trend (as TA predicts) continued the test of the lower levels. And I am sure, TEAM EVIL pushed it even harder down.
WHY?
Well, the whales who are part of TEAM EVIL already bought that coin. It does not make sense to force BTC all the way down, as it would make the whales holding that coin impatient.
Hence the push down does two things...
It pisses off the average bull, because there is NO reason for this drop. Especially for the other coins which are doing fantastic with blockchain adoption. This anger helps fuel a rally.
The rally resumes the gradual rise back to 12k BTC.
And perhaps in a month, weeks, two months, when we hit 10k BTC.. then the big dump.
Then the big fall.
Then rinse and repeat.*
(*Until regulation nips this whole scheme in the bud)
Hence, my call is we may be near the bottom of this fall, otherwise bears gain too much momentum. And TEAM EVIL is not the bears, they are something entirely different.
Coinamic
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@TradeClass, wow that´s such a theory. My point is that while there is some private interests in Bitcoin and the whole space that we ignore, there are patterns that needs to be complete. For me this seems an ABCDE correction, so the touch of the main uptrend line is almost guaranteed, however anything could happen and yes, you may be right and this could be a set up. I´m bearish than bullish so far since a while ago tho.
TradeClass
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@babyjungle, thanks for reading my nonsense. Again, I want to emphasize, I trade based on watching the TA people I favor.. and then assume the BEST Team Evil TA people are drawing the same maps. Then I make a theory on what THEIR influence will be. This is why I must follow TA chart makers such as yourself, because I am not yet a TA analyst. I appreciate your work and have been following you for a while.. but this most recent work you have done fits in nicely with what my gut tells me. I LIKE that you spotted alternative routes, I saw them too, though not with TA. At this moment, going to catch up the series finale of Walking Dead (need to catch up) TTYL