bwy
Short

BTC/USD Final Destination Upper-Mid $200's (Perhaps Lower)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This weekly chart is what I'm using to maintain my short position. Obviously the shorter term signals like the 1D or less are more valuable for spotting reversals, but I'm using this chart to confirm my belief that my 1D signals are all saying this down trend is far from over. In fact it might just be building steam.

The weekly MACD has not crossed the 0 line with building momentum in all the MT.GOX data that I can find. This is a serious sell signal (as people are finding out they need to be careful with margin long positions now). With the timing of the ADX turning up to signal a new bear trend starting I'm quite honestly not ruling out that this move might find itself well below $200. However I do not want to get greedy thinking BTC will go to $50, so I'm using the 78% retracement of the entire bull run as a starting target and it seems to line up somewhat close to the most likely candidate for a trend line of the previous bull run (puts us in the upper-mid $200's area).

The weekly RSI will have a long way to go to find itself in oversold territory. Notice also that the previous all time high of $1163 shows pretty clear divergence on the RSI as well as ADX (helps to conclude $1163 was the top for now).

Finally volume is starting to pick up suggesting this is the new trend.

Be careful that a lot of people might think $350 area is bottom. I'm thinking there's a chance it might bounce hard there and planning accordingly.
ChartArt
2 years ago
These were my doomsday scenarios. I was the first on TradingView who became a bear. I know it because I took the time to look at every posted Bitcoin chart before and after the week, when I published my "Bitcoin is facing a larger correction" chart. Almost nobody upvoted it back then, because 100% of all other posted charts where still 'long' and bullish.

Bitcoin is facing a larger correction


3 Bitcoin short targets and a Buddha quote


Bitcoin price doom analysis - Why Bitcoin might crash to $333


The real reason Bitcoin is doomed in Summer 2014


But since we have finally found buyers at the lowest critical price (around $450), I'm getting very optimistic again. Because the buyers pushed the price so fast up again in only 24 hours, that there seem to be enough bulls left in the market that keep the price from falling so low.

There is also no big negative news so far this week. This is why I became a bull again 23 hours ago (even BEFORE we got from $442 back to $493). And IF we manage to go back up a little more the sentiment will shift a lot to bulls. And we are extremely oversold right now.

Bullish Stochastic and RSI Divergence
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bwy PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I'm definitely keeping my mind open to this reversing and I remember thinking you were one of the few calling for a hard fall from $600 area. My chart above though is only a guidance for my shorter term trades which are based more on 1D entrance and 4hr exits. If I did get a 1D entrance signal to go long I would for sure go long, but I'd be looking to get out quickly unless I saw this bigger 1Week picture looking significantly better.

Anyway I tend to agree more with your doomsday charts at the moment than the one you just posted suggesting a run up to $1000 :)
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ChartArt bwy
2 years ago
I'm going to became perma bear if we fall below $400, but as long as we stay above $420 - ideally $440 I keep on being optimistic.

Average people don't look at all these charts and indicators. It's enough for them to see the price go up from $440 to get excited to buy. Basically average people who are not traders don't follow the rule of "buy low, sell high" -- they higher the price gets, the more likely they are to buy. Just look at the Apple stock. Many people don't even know about the "double top" risk, so they started buying the more closer the price was nearing the magic $100 price.
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bwy PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I agree completely about the average person. They tend to take big risks at the exact moment they should be reducing their risks. But if it were going to happen I'd think it would have on the run up to $680. I was thinking we were going back to $1000 on that run, but when I saw the signals turn I knew it was over. If that run couldn't fuel the rise, I'm doubting a 100% retracement back to $450 gets people bullish again.

We'll see, but like I said it's good to see you're unbiased and keeping an open mind. Must have that to survive this game.
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ChartArt bwy
2 years ago
It was too early. I learned while watching hours and hours of 1-minute charts each week that the price is not important, but how slow the uptrend is.

Every trend change is bound to failure if the trend change is too fast too high. Only slow uptrend are stable and have staying power.

In May the price was going up way too high way too fast. We could be now at $700 if the price increase had been slower. But it wasn't. So we had to "clean up" this uptrend.

Now we can start a new uptrend from a new lower price - with more investors.
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ChartArt bwy
2 years ago
NASDAQ posted today to their 348K followers on Twitter to buy Bitcoin:

https://twitter.com/NASDAQ/status/501813852796096512
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bwy PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
That's big, thanks for that. Like I said I'll be watching closely for a reversal signal. I'm not emotionally attached to Bitcoin falling to $200's (I like Bitcoin and want it to do well), but from all the indicators I look at it's hard to ignore this downtrend continuing.
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stckpkr7000 bwy
2 years ago
The 200s would require something castrophic in my opinion. Too many people with deep pockets have a vested interest in BTC's success.......
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bwy PRO stckpkr7000
2 years ago
you could be right, however I'd argue quite a lot of those people had their pockets hit hard when mt.gox went down. it's also not a great idea when invested in something as risky as btc to increase your risk even more to protect against a losing trade. anyway I'm not trading based on fundamentals, just looking at the indicators and they are showing something I have not seen in btc yet (an end to the 5 year long uptrend).
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bwy PRO
2 years ago
Update: This trend is currently in the confirmation zone for me that it has much further to go. I'm starting to get a bit nervous that the bounce I was planning on at $350 might not be worth the risk of closing my short position. The $200 area or lower is looking high probability right now.
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