The weekly has not crossed the 0 line with building momentum in all the MT.GOX data that I can find. This is a serious sell signal (as people are finding out they need to be careful with margin long positions now). With the timing of the turning up to signal a new trend starting I'm quite honestly not ruling out that this move might find itself well below $200. However I do not want to get greedy thinking will go to $50, so I'm using the 78% retracement of the entire run as a starting target and it seems to line up somewhat close to the most likely candidate for a of the previous run (puts us in the upper-mid $200's area).
The weekly will have a long way to go to find itself in oversold territory. Notice also that the previous all time high of $1163 shows pretty clear divergence on the as well as (helps to conclude $1163 was the top for now).
Finally is starting to pick up suggesting this is the new trend.
Be careful that a lot of people might think $350 area is bottom. I'm thinking there's a chance it might bounce hard there and planning accordingly.
But since we have finally found buyers at the lowest critical price (around $450), I'm getting very optimistic again. Because the buyers pushed the price so fast up again in only 24 hours, that there seem to be enough bulls left in the market that keep the price from falling so low.
There is also no big negative news so far this week. This is why I became a bull again 23 hours ago (even BEFORE we got from $442 back to $493). And IF we manage to go back up a little more the sentiment will shift a lot to bulls. And we are extremely oversold right now.
Anyway I tend to agree more with your doomsday charts at the moment than the one you just posted suggesting a run up to $1000 :)
Average people don't look at all these charts and indicators. It's enough for them to see the price go up from $440 to get excited to buy. Basically average people who are not traders don't follow the rule of "buy low, sell high" -- they higher the price gets, the more likely they are to buy. Just look at the Apple stock. Many people don't even know about the "double top" risk, so they started buying the more closer the price was nearing the magic $100 price.
We'll see, but like I said it's good to see you're unbiased and keeping an open mind. Must have that to survive this game.
Every trend change is bound to failure if the trend change is too fast too high. Only slow uptrend are stable and have staying power.
In May the price was going up way too high way too fast. We could be now at $700 if the price increase had been slower. But it wasn't. So we had to "clean up" this uptrend.
Now we can start a new uptrend from a new lower price - with more investors.