Now let's follow up.
The June-October Decline ( intermediate A) seems like an impulsive one wave affair but I do not subscribe to the 'WXY since 2013 is complete' view because X is too shallow. X Should at least be 61.8% of W for it to be considered part of a flat.
The move up from 278 ( intermediate B) clearly lacks the momentum of a trend change and is obviously correcting wave A.
Two high probability targets for intermediate B are 478 and 510. After 510, 600 comes into play but I assign a very low probability to us reaching there.
The market moves fast.
I believe, the last leg Y of the WXY correction which is taking place in the form of a (ABC) should finalize without breaking the which means it has to end before June 2015.
Depending on the time dimension, it will be somewhere between 200 and 279, whereafter we will correct the whole WXY correction.
I still believe that the final leg of the correction will take us to 70s by 2016/2018.
We pulled back towards the downtrend line and bounced off it. I think the lows of the bounce (369) can be used to initiate longs against. I'm holding longs from 278 and will hold on to them until I see some signs of topping which I don't expect until 440/478/510. If I see signs of topping in this area I will close longs and initiate shorts.
You can check out my long term count and view here:
I believe we are in a bear market in btc that will last well into 2016/2018.
I know that this is a major guideline but I find a lot of wave3s especially in forex that break the 2/4 trendline; assuming those waves to be corrective usually is a big bite. You're right in pointing out that the ii/iv trendline breaks very slowly. I'd love to see an alternate long term count that satisfies all the guidelines that you have mentioned. The two alternatives I can think of are a series of nesting 1-2s for which the present correction seems too long and intricate and two ABC/ABCs. I don't like explosive corrections that move like 10000% so the correction count is I think out of the ballpark. Thanks again for the feedback, it's very valuable. Best,