Hope everyone is faring well in this market. There are a few reasons why I chart, a big reason is because I want to make money, the second reason is that I want to save you from losing yours. What I've learned in trading over the past 7 years trading both traditional markets and crypto currencies is that you first need to identify what type of market your trading in, the second is to position yourself with the smart investors or the smart money even if it takes you a year to get into the proper position. A Macro outlook helps us do this, with a macro outlook you will be able to see levels at which the prices are prime for you to minimize your losses and maximize your rewards.
A professional trade will not take stabs at the market. Let me explain to you some of the trading strategies that will help you make the most money. If your a day trader trying to make some points and leave you need to find out the style of trading you are in for. I myself like to trade from position of most support to the position of high resistance, this gives me the best probabilities without any noise of market volatility.
Some people prefer the hodl strategy which I think is completely silly. Its crazy enough that the market decided to give us over 1500% profits in like a few months, but you not realizing your gains is completely stupid. If you want to hold on for dear life your best bet is to hedge against your positions at critical points.
Scalping, or day trading on a daily or weekly basis is insanity, I really dont envy you and you might end up losing either your capital or your sanity.
In my opinion in order to be successful you must be where the big money flows, where the large trades are being made you will notice this by large volume spikes.
We are in the area where for large money there is no real reason to buy into the market, its too risky. They need lower prices, they need the prices to be substantially lower because its unknown and when something is unknown you just don't do it... You need to put yourself in the position of these people, They are risking an insane amount of money in the market by buying in they will not allow for a 3-5% deviation in their position or they will sell out. These types of moves will send the market to form this weird lower low like we have seen just recently in the past few days. This is a very bearish signal in my mind, when I see a price that gets retested it just signals that we are not at the bottom yet.
FACTS ->
The past 10 months we practically set this beautiful descending pattern that lots of people both profited and lost money in hoping that it would eventually break out of this triangle. Little did they research but the probability of this market breaking down was greater than trending up.
According to previous market price action we are expecting to see further breakdowns and then hopefully a breakout that will send us into sideways neutral trading and long term we will start to move back up to the highs and trading in a uptrend.
My outlook should not dictate how you should trade, I'm just sharing my outlook at the end of the day its just a guessing game.
Hi, based on your chart, we can expect $2000 and lower prices with BTC not bottoming before the summer. What I find intriguing is the Long Trendline support. Do we have to expect touching it and sliding with it slowly upwards like in 2015-2016? Then it would really mean an extended bear market maybe taking twice as long compared to the previous cycle. Not going over $5000 before 2021. What do you think? How does it compare to the previous bear? The mark up of the next bull not happening before 2023-2024?
Thanks.
nakov
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i.e. the later stages of the mark up of the next bull (similar to 2017) not happening before 2023-2024?
TheCryptAlpha
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@nakov, My outlook is based on technical analysis alone, the previous trend had no real adoption, also the mt gox exchange drama. My outlook is that if we continue this pattern/trend we can see prices as low as $3000 and hopefully we break out of the major channels that are above us in the first quarters of 2019. Now its not to say that some massive spikes that send us out of this trend is not possible. But not probable. Also with the recent garbage BCH pulled this markets sentiment is weak. I'd look for further down trend before seeing anything go back up