BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The following chart is certainly not "hard" TA. It's simply an illustration of a belief I hold, and that I track in more detail through other indicators. I'm posting it in case someone finds it interesting, or wants to challenge the basic idea.

Here's the basic premise: Fibo levels, support lines based on running averages, Elliot waves -- all of those matter of course, but I believe that it is sometimes easy to forget that our simple human brains (collectively, when trading) pay a lot of attention to other elements as well, elements that may look "irrational" or unimportant from the outside.

I'm talking about "round numbers". It is my belief that, in the past months, we have seen a battle for 800 (which was lost), and more recently, one for (approx.) 600, which was also lost. The market is currently deciding whether another round number, 500, will hold or not.

Let me say this again: I use fibo retracements and other tools for more precise targets, but I do believe it is no coincidence that we've seen a confluence of the EMAs I've graphed above at prices near round numbers (800, 600, now approaching 500).

Which way does it resolve? That's another matter, and I don't have a good answer. I see substantial differences now when comparing it to the false breakout in March, so that way I'm bullish , but right now, it looks like we're slowly grinding down again, which makes me at least short term bearish .
it seems $450 was another such number ... that didn't hold either, I'm also bullish on the long run, but bearish in the short term ... nobody actually needs bitcoins, ok a few, but not enough ... yet
Here ya go... now this isn't log so it might not be accurate...
Morbius Ni6HTH4wK
Thanks. Very useful to see it like that...

I suspect there's some pretty complex system behind it, where "obvious targets" (like x00 prices) influence where the fibo levels sit approximately, but that it works the other way around as well in the sense that the exact lines of support/resistance are influenced by Fibonacci ratios. Interesting stuff.
That bottom price could also show where we are going... =O
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