MrRenev
Short

Bitcoin, safe trade good reward low risk.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin             has been moving up alot since it's dip at 6k.
We are now approaching the top of the large wedge Bitcoin             has been in for weeks, we got 5 green 4H candles in a row!
We can also see the 4H 2H RSI are getting pretty high, so a moderatly large correction is bound to happen.
It's pretty simple when you look at the chart.

I see only 3 things happening:
1) We touch the trendline around 9k and go down right after to target.
2) We break the trendline! Then go down afterwards.
3) We reject the trendline fast (because everyone shorted it?), go back up, reject it again, then go to target.

After we enter the trend looking at the indicators support levels and Fibo will help us see how much we go down. Any price in the green area is possible, we can't know yet where we go.

I recommended keeping an eye on the candles & indicators when we get to the short box around 9k, and try to have an average sell price as high as possible to minimise the risk.
Comment: Should Bitcoin go over 9100 the next resistance would be 9200-9400 hard one too.

Lets say we short 2 BTC at 9000$ average price.
If we go above 9100 and close position at 9150, we lose 300$.
If we correct to 7600, gain is 2800$.
As it goes down a bit we can lock about 300$ of profits, just to be safe. The gain would be smaller, maybe 2000$.
Comment: We got there already wow that was fast!
I hope it goes up a little more, I only have 3% of what I wanted to short in right now.
Comment: It might go down a little as the low time frame RSI cool down then go up into the sell zone before correcting significantly once the 2H is over 70.
It's actually what happened last 2 times.


Whatever happens I don't see Bitcoin going straight up without at the very least consolidating a bit.
My orders are set, I'm going to bed with a couple of alerts on.
Let's see if I made some profits tomorrow :D
Comment: Last 2 times it happened, it was during the week end (just like now), and the test of the resistance lasted about 24 hours.
Comment: No need to rush and FOMO there's probably plenty of time left.
I won't move my orders they make sense.
Just going to sleep and later check every once in a while where we are, and react if an alert pops off.
Trade active: Possible now we go to around 8600 and stay in a rather tight range a couple of hours before testing that resistance again.
Comment: Worse case scenario realistically

Just something to reassure myself.
Expecting a bigger drop thought, we didn't correct that much since we bounced off 6k only big impulses with small corrections.
Still got plenty of cash left to short more. I got enough orders filled already so a win will be pretty significant and a lose won't make me cry.
If we get to 9100 (on Kraken) I'll be 75% in.
Comment: On a 1 hour inside bar formation, expect (up to) 1 hour of bullish action on a break above, 1 hour of bearish action on a bear break. I would not micro trade it lol.
Hoping we go bullish once the short time frames rsi cools off, up to 9100, my orders get filled (got a big one at 9020).
The 2H candle just opened.

Seing a big sell wall at 9000 on Gdax, looks like the usual BS fake order. Could be, could not be.
Comment: If 9000 pshycological level breaks, I believe it will have a very hard time going much higher, even if it's a psychological level and everything.
And so much was put into getting up there already...We climbed so much...+50% in 3 days lol good thing I missed my entry at 6k.
The downtrend resistance alone is a bigger challenge than anything, a bit of hype won't do much + the FOMO people already bought by now :)
And then you got 9200-9400 zone right above it, another big challenge.

If the bulls are able to climb 50% in 2 days AND break the 4hr 50ema AND THEN break the long term downtrend, AND THEN break 9200-9400 the point where we dipped (also the low of the crash from 14k) I think I'll do what MacAfee Said.

It's almost impossible to lose on that trade.
Comment: All in one day.
Right after a huge crash from 20k where people got crushed and lost their life savings, because of some FOMO?
Ye good luck with that one lol.
Comment: Only a couple of hours left till we know more.
A breakout to 9200 is possible, if that happens I'll have to keep a close eye on it sigh.
I'll short more at that point kept some cash for that possibility.
Comment:
Comment: Down we go...
Going to sleep 2 hours.
I'll wake up if we go above 8850 or under 8600.
Comment: If the 5 and 15 min RSI get really too low the drop is going to have to slow down and we could go up a bit if we go up more than just a bit I'll be ready. The more time passes by the lower the downtrend resistance gets!

Looking can't find it, right that's the high volume, where did it go?
What? You're saying it all got exhausted on the way up? We can't break anything without that volume?

Looking at the 15 min chart I can see big green spikes on the way up. I bet "omg we are moooning" was typed very often the past 24 hours.
The lower we go the harder it is going to be going up straight away.
Dropping so fast...
There's probably going to be bagholders chasing their loss making resistances on the way up. Probably the same place where there's big buy volume spikes.

5 min rsi under 30 right now. We're going to have to stop a bit.
Modifying my alerts...
Comment: If we keep going down after a 5% fall I'm going to dismiss going back to test that resistance. Could stay in the 8650-8750 range a while.
Comment: I only see 1 of 2 things happening now:
- Drop soon
- Stay within low volatility and go retest that resistance in several hours, it would be at 8800 to 9000 by then.

I can finally go sleep safely now :D
I'll stay up a bit more then go sleep.
Comment: Going down already?
Road to 6k?
We are NOT going to retest that downtrend resistance anytime soon...
The 15 min RSI touched 45 for a sec then went back down, closed at 44.
Comment: Bouncing off 8600 support nothing surprising.
Pathetic volume if I'm not to tired to judge.
Comment: If we go up fast, the resistance is at 8950 on the next 4HR candle, then 8900, then 8850. Don't really think it breaks, but prepared incase it does.
Comment: Would be really nice:
Comment: Plenty of hours left before anything happens.

For someone that has shorted at 9k this should be a win no matter what.
Big or small can't tell we'll see, there's arguments for both won't bother speculating.
Comment: Since I entered on the hard resistance after we climbed 20% in 24 hours, in a rising wedge, with 70 1HR RSI, the risk on this trade was non existant, to go break that wall it had to drop at least to the next support (8600), which it did, first so if it doesn't go down I won't complain. But I was told there would be lambos so actually going down so I can make a large profit and buy more at a cheap price would be awesome!
Comment: Well that was quick XD
Next support and possible reversal 8200.
Going to listen to Emperor Palpatine say "good, good" on loop on the way down.
Comment: 5 minutes rsi getting back to "normal values", getting ready for continuation to 8200.
Maybe 10 minutes left before it starts. Got an alert should we go above 8500.
Comment: Took 10 minutes to drop, but that was luck.
Comment: Ok nevermind thing need to cool off a bit more than that before going lower.
Comment: Here we go again...I'm leaving it 1 hour to start going towards 8150-8200 before I ask questions and blame the whales.
Comment: Opinion (and some facts too mixed up):
Comment: Bitcoinator: The return of the war machine episode 36. Bounced on 8223, might form some kind of approximate rising wedge again. We have to stay under 8500 I believe.
Comment: Could take a while.. Closing 1/3 of my shorts if we break above 8550 and keeping an eye on the downtrend line., it's going to be under 8850 at most next time we test it, around 250$ under my average short price.
Comment: Opinion: the bulls are about to capitulate, less than 1 hour left.
Fact: we are under the 50ema (4hr TF), 7800-7900 is the 0.382 retracement since 6k, 7500-7600 the 0.5. 7k 0.618.

Maybe I get the 7600 I waited for 3 days. I don't think I'll trade it I'll pass, unless I'm in the mood, would be easy 5% on whatever I put in.
Comment: Good. Good. Everything is going according to my plan. Sub 8200 now. 1 HR candle closing in 1 minute 30, going to close below 8200 unless of a miracle.
Comment: Lmao closed above 8200 literally in the last second but that won't matter. Someone trying to save bitcoin? XD
Still below the low of the previous 4HR candle.
Comment: Levels to watch for. Going to either be small profit or incredible profit.
Comment: Closed 1/3 of my shorts, locking in some profits at 8510.
The positions that were at the lowest buy price around 8900 have been closed.
Total account gain: 4%.
Let's see if that trendline gets re-tested and if it holds or breaks.
Comment:
I might short some more depending on what happens...
Or close and short higher at 9.4k something like that, since 4HR RSI
would get over 70 or close to it at some point and 9400-9500 is a very hard wall I think.
Comment: If we destroy that resistance and go way above and I close my shorts between 8900 and 8950 I will have made 7-9% on that trading account.
Comment: Closed orders
OFK2GW sell/limit XBT/USD $8,949.0 4.69% 02-10-18 22:31:58 +00:00
OAQFO7 sell/limit XBT/USD $8,933.0 4.52% 02-10-18 22:31:58 +00:00
OVH7DU sell/limit XBT/USD $8,904.6 4.11% 02-10-18 22:31:58 +00:00
O3W6LT sell/limit XBT/USD $8,940.0 4.59% 02-10-18 22:31:56 +00:00
OWYJVX sell/limit XBT/USD $8,726.0 1.04% 02-09-18 22:54:00 +00:00
OMXEA4 sell/limit XBT/USD $8,734.0 1.13% 02-09-18 22:54:00 +00:00

Logging off from that exchange for now.
When I see the hundred of dollars of profit on most of my open positions it makes me want to close it all XD
Idk I could close and reopen as we retest resistance.
Nah fk it I'll wait just trying to grow not get greedy, this account is already growing at a fast pace anyway. Just chilling and waiting.
Comment: Should this scenario happen... Easy profits...

Whatever happens we'll be back to climbing and every one will be able to win, no matter how bad they are. I also think sudden drops won't happen anymore, not like this...Serious people are getting more and more in crypto, and the governments and officials are taking crypto seriously so that's what every weak hand wanted, reassurance that crypto is legit and being taken seriously and not just a ponzi or experiment or whatever.
Comment: Let's be prepared for the scenario where the trendline does not hold!
I knew a 10% correction was likely on that last move, but I was waiting for a bigger correction at some point. Oh well. Still made alot of profit at the price of 0 risk.
Comment:
Comment: Could take a while... It's monday morning in Asia in about 18 hours?
People that didn't take the lifeboats on the Titanic are now about to abandon ship and jump in an Orca infested ocean, take their chances (Sharks kill you to eat you, Orca's torture you for fun and they have 7 kilos brain they know exactly what is the most horrific and painful - they live in really cold waters).
Once we lose the higher low at 7700$ aka "all the progress we made so far" or "I thought that was it we were finally out of consolidation" "the expert said we were going up what should I believe now???" ==> BTC is going to piss blood, I could just sit in front of my computer spam F5 and see a 10$ profit a second on my shorts at that point.
Comment: Just for clarity when I said there would be a bounce on 7600 I was wrong my bad I meant 7725 +/- 50$. Should not try being too precise but have to be a minimum.
Comment: So I got closed some of my positions at an about 4.5% profit in case I was wrong, which is 22.5% on that money since it was on level *5. We're now at > 1000$ profit per bitcoin shorted, which is 12% which is 60% on lever *5.
If we get to 6k it will be 33 => 165%.
Wish my order at 9090 also got filled.
Comment: 8500 about to get re-tested and fail.
I'll open a small new position right under 8500 if we make it that far.
Still 2/3 of my initial positions at 9k open.
Comment: Playing it safe placing a small sell order at 8495.
If we go above 8500 I'll sell a bit more and see where we go from here.
Comment: If we get an impulse to 8600 I'll sell a bit more.
Even if it's 50/50 where we go next it's still worth it.
Comment: My sell order won't be reached. QQ.
Was only for 0.2 BTC anyway, won't get lambo's with that.
Comment: The trendline resistance is at 8700 now 8600 this evening if you're on the east coast or middle of the night for europe, tomorrow morning for Asia east coast.
If we got up to 8500 or 8600 that would have been pretty awesome could have opened shorts really close to hard resistances with a stop loss right above and trailing, that would be a lucky opportunity for high rr.

As the days pass by we, the ones that shorted BTC, see their minimum profit go up as days pass by sicne stop loss stays right above the trendline and it's getting lower and lower.

It will all unraveil Monday-Thuesday, once again...
I will have to apply for teleworking in the future.
Comment: So many people buying rofl. And here I am looking to sell.
I guess that's what they meant "go against the trend".
Guess the plebs are going to realise they're not prepared to buy at high prices or that if they bought before it fell they would be chasing their losses so that's what other people like them are doing, so that's why it can't go higher.
Their logic and how they don't see this amazes me.
Or maybe they think there's people out there even more bad than them?

"Ok guys we start a pump and dump group trust us we start pumping it then you buy high and we dump on you and after that outsiders even more stupid than you will buy higher and you can dump on them" <=== This actually works. The people organising this make it work. Amazing.
Comment: Should be come close to 8700 I'll short a big amount.
My stop loss would be 50$ away so I am prepared to take that risk.
A 50$ loss per Bitcoin shorted won't kill me lol.
Comment: Going down as expected. These opportunistic orders do get filled sometimes.
Even if there was 1 chance out of 15 they do, it's worth taking 1 minute placing them each time.
Comment: I'll make a wild guess and say we're headed for 8000 then 8300 or 8400 something, a lower high, then back down to 8000 or a higher low...
Till at keast East asia closes.
By Thuesday evening UTC or at worse wednesday we'll have hit the low and start bouncing; or broke the resistance.
This will all be over soon.
Comment: Higher low has been set at 8171.
Going to get tight pretty soon then.
We might have a lower high at 8433, but it's early to tell.
Even if we go down, nothing guarentees that we'll go lower than 7k.
Got to be ready to react.
Thing could break out of consolidation before 4-5 am UTC?
At least this means I won't be in the train while it all happens. Good. Hope it happens.
And east coast people will go to bed late.
Comment: It's right in the middle right now o.0
About to break in a couple of minutes?
Comment: Zomming in
Comment: 80 Bitcoins were bought in the past 12 minutes on Bitfinex.
Comment: On the 5 minute candle that has 2 min left a whole FIVE Bitcoins were sold. LOL.
Market's going to have to decide soon.
Looks like a single guy can bring it down at that point.
Comment: Going to 7800. Little stop at 8k on the way.
Comment:
Comment: So it bounced more than just a little.
Could go test resistance. Blows, I wanted to sleep.
But then again it needs to break 8500 AND THEN the trendline.
Alerts would wake me up in time.
It could go test the res and then go down it sure loves doing this over and over.
If this keeps going it's going to get trapped between the falling wedge upper limit and 8000 and then it'll have no choice but to go in a direction.
We probably move somewhere before that then.
Comment: Why won't Asia let me sleep? They see a hammer candle on the daily and think that's a signal to buy?
Should have went to bed early while it was all calm, but my body wouldn't let me...
Comment: Setting short orders between 8500 and 8600. Already a couple. I want to short even moar. I'll take a few minutes to think about how much more I want to short then I goto bed only waking up if we go above 8550.
Comment: Ah nice an order for 0.25 btc got hit. At least I'll make a couple hundreds for being woken up. I don't just wake up for free.
Comment: Stop loss is above 8600 I guess. I'll wake up in a few hours to set it lower if we didn't break it.
Comment: People must be getting hyped or something.
RSI on the short time frames are getting heated, which increases odds of rejection, and if it goes get tested again later, the trendline will be lower and our stop loss too. GG EZ.
Comment: Oh gosh actually I hope we test that resistance soon so I know if it gets rejected or not and can go sleep.
Comment: Got in big. Balls of steel. SPARTA!
And still got some big ass orders ready if we go higher.
This time it's not low risk guarenteed like opening at 9k, but since my 9k shorts are far away and I already locked in some profits, I use that as a kinda mattress even if we break resistance those big positions I opened won't make me lose so much that the trade wasn't profitable.
Comment: Going to have to stay in front of computer a couple of hours, unless we casually accelerate to 8k. Guess I'm skipping work tomorrow.
Comment: Anything is possible, but we shouldn't be able to break the resistance right away after bouncing from 8002 to 8500 in 3 hours.
If we do break in a couple of hours, by then the trendline will be a bit lower.

And if we do get over now it"s going to be really hard for the bulls to go further up after this as much as they might want it to go up.
Comment: I'm looking at weather in Asia to see if they are going to be positive or too depressed to break any wall XD
Just bored while we are in this area.


I would be curious if anyone accumulated the data to figure out how much weather influenciates the markets. I know there's some stuff not sure how much.
The weather is average in East Asia now so it doesn't give any info anyway
Comment: Watching really carefully even if it doesn't change anything. A bot could handle this:
- Go above x value close position
- Go under y value close position
Comment: Just realised I'm so close to my stop loss I'm stressing out for a couple dozen bucks and already so much in the green with my positions since 9k XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
Would love to go to target and make gigantic profits, but if it doesn't happen i'll survive.
Comment: If we're still in the same area in 2 hours I'll start worrying.
Comment: If we go down we'll be going down 500$ in at most 3 hours.
If we go up I don't see how we could possibly gain 500$ in hours.
Comment: Somebody take one for the team and make BTC move.
Comment: "Activate warpdrive"
"Yes captain"
"Entering hyperspace in 5...4...3..."

Huehuehue no one can save you now Bitcoin.
Comment: Let's stop at space station 8350$ to refuel.
Comment: "But the 8375$ station is closer thought"
Bouncing a bit now...
Please don't go retest resistance? I'm asking nicely now.
Comment: To the next station. 8300 then 8200 I guess.
Trade closed manually: Oh it skyrocketed the 1 hour 1/2 I was asleep.
TV thumbnail was muted?
Sms didn't wake me up.
Not much I can do with this kind of bad luck.
Just was too tired.
Use more alerts next time...
Profits divided by 10.

Looking now to short it if it gets to 9500.
Comment: I only sent a bit of money to that shitsite Kraken to margin trade have some fun, Binance stays my biggest focus.
No stop loss on Kraken.
Comment: For anyone shorting at 9k, the profit should have been minimum 400$/btc since you'd be closing it at worse at 8600 when it breaksthrough.
Comment: I'll probably short if we go above 9300 and long if we go below 8500, but apart from that I'm out staying away from charts and trading for a while.
Comment: If someone wants to short the options are I think Bitmex and Poloniex? With Poloniex being in Tether?

But let's wait for confirmation we're back to a bull market.
Once I go long on BTC and I'm in the green I can start sending that to my main account on Binance and feel good, I'll take my chances with Tether.
I would leave maybe 1k on Kraken for shorting if I want to and if it grows too much I'll send the profits to my main acc. I don't think there is 1 serious trader left on that site...
I wanted to experiment twice with Kraken and I took big hits because they were down all the time and they got no stop loss, I never took big hits apart there. I think on this trade I made 1/5 of the profits I should have made.
I am crazy :D

Note to self:
I give myself till the end of March to be verified on Gdax, but I'm not too scared of USDT for now. Ok let's say they've been evading tax and hiding idk what evil thing, that creates massive panic and brings the price of tether down hard and crypto goes down with it, i'll buy lots of coins for really cheap.
If there's a 5% chance USDT value goes to 0, within that there's a 5% chance I can't dodge the bullet or take profit. Since I don't have a huge amount in crypto I can take my chances whatever.
Comment: Seriously thought:
Don't use Kraken if you plan on trading seriously, they are garbage.
Don't use them if you like to sleep too.

Potential reasons to go there ==>
Arbitrage: doesn't really work.
Reducing risk: but the risk you take because the site is bad is way greater!
Shorting: Bear market soon over, it's not necessary, better use someone else.
USDT/USD: Gdax has usd support. Bitstamp too. Bittrex now also, but their fees are ridiculous.

Reasons not to go there ==>
I'll send the book trilogie once I'm done writting it.
Comment: It is pretty sunny in europe, is this why we went up at 8 am european time?
There hasn't been a single ray of sun in europe in december and january, and last week europe was covered in snow o.0
I am calling illuminati here.

If I wanted to play perfectly I would have taken 1/3 profit on the 10% retracement to 8k <== That is the smart move.
But since entering that trade had virtually no risk (risk is just shitsite goes down or my internet AND 4G go down for more than 2 days); I was prepared to gamble it since I would be at 4-500$ profit per Bitcoin shorted if we broke resistance.
Still made a profit with no risk anyway.

Was a fun ride! Let's confirm we're back to bull market this week!
Comment: This trade should have provided 5 to 10% returns with little to no risk during a correction.

For any new people that saw shitcoins get 1000% in 2 weeks and wants some of that, realise that 10% every week means in a year: 1.1^52 = 142 ==> 14200% return.
Start with 2k end with 300k.

Now we wait on the sideline. Better to wait for BTC next move candle closes and everything.
Above 9500 (approx.) = Going up.
Under 8000 (approx) = Bearish.

I won't feel totally sure of the direction we take until the first few days of March, UNLESS we get a big signal of course.
Comment: Money sent to Binance. Feels awesome.
10% left on Kraken to short. Enough to grow my main account a percent or 2 but not enough to worry etc. Not much risk here.
If we go up to 9500 (potentially with high 4HR rsi) I'll start looking to short.
I agree that we’re likely close to a bottom and have a long building upturn ahead of us, however, the word “safe” might be tough to stomach right now. Average your buy in positions is what I’d say, but I’m new to crypto and crypto is NOT like other markets regardless of what both BTC bulls and bears try to say.
Reply
MrRenev Scaremaze
@Scaremaze, This is an idea about shorting Bitcoin. Which means borrowing Bitcoins, selling them, buying back cheaper to give them back, and the difference in price, you keep. It was close to impossible that the price goes above 9100 without going down at least a bit. It was not safe to buy Bitcoins at 9k! And even if it goes at 6k it won't be safe. I will buy some thought if it gets there and monitor the moves. Expecting a bounce on 6k, once that happens I'll move my stop loss up. if BTC falls below 6k I'll buy on, the way down, a bit at a time.
Short =/= Long.
Reply
Scaremaze MrRenev
@MrRenev, haha. You're right. Sorry my friend. In that case, yes, it's safe trading based on volume and indicators. Sorry about that.
Reply
I have enjoyed your idea and your commentary. Quite the ray of sunshine in these dark days. Keep up the good work.
+1 Reply
There is something not smelling very well in all it. Did you saw the 1m chart ? There was a volume pick in 20:07 (New York time) very strange...
I agree with you that we go down now, it seems that we artificially arrived to this 9000 price, and this is not sustainable.
+1 Reply
hardwood198 badosanjoa
@badosanjoa, I saw this too. Very fishy
Reply
MrRenev badosanjoa
@badosanjoa, Didn't see. Some whale FOMOING? Or could be a fail. Reminds me of a couple of weeks ago NEO was moving in all direction crazy it was mind bogling, and some whale put a buy order for 1+ million NEO as well as a sell order for 3 million. Every one stopped moving. Maybe someone's having fun, or trying to force that level to break. Have to take that into account. Whales overcutting targets, and setting walls (fake most of the time).
Assuming we go retest 6k, by then the descending trendline won't be that hard to break if we only get 2/3 of the impulse we got last time. If we go above 9.5k 11.5 and 13k are going to be super hard.
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