I thought I would chart up a potential long term Elliot Wave pattern for Bitcoin.
We are nearing a top for primary wave 3 (within cycle wave 3) in my opinion. The bitcoin futures will be traded soon. I believe this will cause a wave 3 top before the end of 2017. My bet is somewhere around 25k, but it is obviously insanely difficult to call a top/bottom.
Here is a look at the subwaves within this primary wave 3 (the screenshot shows the orange waves as intermediate but im pretty sure they are actually primary, green should be intermediate):
Here is a look at the subwaves within intermediate wave 5 (blue is minor):
Anyone buying here is probably going to get dumped on within a month. Buy the fucking dip and HODL. Long term its going to $1 million, no doubt about it.
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What a crazy night. Past couple days has been total dumpage for BTC, right after CME futures launch. So this is either top of this huge 3rd wave (top of blue 5th within green 5th), or the wave count can be adjusted to this for the green 5th wave: If thats the real wave count, this could end up going to 30k-35k before wave 3 top. Then again who knows?
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Just wanted to give some perspective on the dump
Also, the original curve I drew was broken, but it can be readjusted to something like this:
But I am watching for a bad bounce which would confirm an ABC, and I'd look to buy around 8-9k if we break 11k near the 50 day MA:
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Alright more dump. Lets see if 11k can hold, if not, buys at 8-9k.
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Looks like a bounce off the bottom of the daily bollinger bands. Looking at the 4h I drew a green circle where price may run through, as the ichi cloud is thin there. That would be the best route to keep this bullish. On the daily I drew a red circle where price could fall through. That would break this bull run for sure so I would say this has to stay above 12k for sure, and get above 16k by end of year. Watch out for a head and shoulders (even though it never works) and an inverse cup and handle.
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Looking back at the daily, it kinda looks like this will be a sideways range (maybe to make a flag). Could chop around here I'd say to mid Jan if that. Bollinger bands could compress, then a bounce off that cloud support could send this to 25k+
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Watch out for the Christmas day dump. Possible wedge forming. This could be the ABC retrace.
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Weekly godmode screaming "come down."
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The main curve was wicked. Break this and it goes south. This lines up with that thin ichi cloud around 10.5-11k I posted above.
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Bitstamp makes me even more bullish going into the new year if something like this were to happen, as long as a rising wedge doesn't play out. Bitcoin likes to break up out of them so who knows. These are just ideas im throwing out there as possibilities for now.. sooner or later these patterns can be invalidated so don't count on them obviously.
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retest of breakout
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Watching for this. Possible triangle that could form. Could hit a curve near the end of the triangle and send BTC up for more moon.
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Been busy lately.. hit play :D
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Please ignore this idea. I am redoing my long term elliott wave count. I'll post one more update on this idea that links to the new idea when I am done. Thank you!
Hi , what are you thoughts now dear ? Down again you reckon ?
jwlondon98
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@Lassinet, I'm thinking up. Check out my latest updates. :D
cajunseymours4bitc
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I am learning EW and agree with your counting since wave III is supposed to be the longest wave.
kszhu
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Reaching 1M somewhere around 2021 has the same probability like vanishing BTC at all by this time.
Remember that BTC was the first one but is not the BEST one.
milltay
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No way you should long right now...
jwlondon98
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@milltay, I know thats what I said. Long term is a hold obviously.