BTC-USD head down first before going up

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We broke out of the long term downtrend line at 7.8k and haven't retested it

Price is hanging around 8k range for few days with constant traps :)

However, Bitcoin usually does DOUBLE top . Before it happens, it needs to retest MA100 first like what it did in April

if btc goes above 8.3k, then it is a BUY and this post is invalid . For this case, the support scene is that we have double bottom at 7.8k

Note: this post is for discussion only and don't forget to LIKE if you like it
Comment: hidden bearish div is spotted on CMF indicator.
Comment: all I can say is that it is typical btc's movement >>><<< . Now the people who bought at 7850$ will start panicking
Comment: For bearish Logic: we might actually have top at 8.5k. The current rally is all about ETF hype. However, after a series of delaying and rejecting ETF, people have realized that it is impossible for CBOE's ETF to be accepted. Chance for delaying is pretty much 98% (2% is for miracle). Whales/manipulators KNOW this. In addition, on CNBC , reporters have mentioned many times that It is impossible for ETF to be accepted at current time so American people WON'T buy now. We stay in the 8k+ range pretty much with constant bear traps. Those actually might be the distribution process. Whales make us all to think that btc can go up more by having strong/fast recover after dumping to 7850$. However, the daily candles can't lie .
In conclusion, today is red, tomorrow might have a recover small green candle, then next day another red. That's typical btc's movement for bear scene.
Nevertheless, we should expect some kind of bounce(small or big) for the area box because of a lot confluences there.

This is just the thought for bear scene :)

Comment: For the bull logic: we are still in the bull flag :)
Comment: lot of confluences on the area box, if we don't have a bounce at that area, im expecting 6.8k is coming :)). However, we should have a bounce at that area
Comment: instead of trying to catch the falling knife with guessing entry value, it is better to wait for a bullish signal coming to us. Originally , I suggest zone 1 as entry. However if bullish signal doesn't come on zone 1, we might even deep to zone 2 which is much safer and might not reach.
Comment: don't forget that bitcoin usually love to drop 1k$ range. So 8.2k- 1k = around 7.2k. Meaning that 7k-7.2k is much safer place to catch this falling knife
Comment: when price breaks critical support, you will see panic and mass selling. That's usually the best time to catch the dip .LOL ^___^
Comment: we are approaching the broken long-term downtrend which should act as support now. If it is destroyed easily, we should expect 7k-7.26k next.
Comment: just remember, don't try to guess entry and catch the falling knife :). Wait for bullish signal first
Comment: touchhhhhhingggg. It will be pierced ^___^
Comment: well , this will drag for a while because this area is pretty important for the bull. Lot of confluences here
Comment: with the way bitcoin is dropping, it is better to think current trend right now is bearish. We went up pretty fast so it won't be surprise me at all if we drop down fast.
In other to catch this falling knife, we must wait for a bullish signal or set at a very low important support zone .
6.8k - 7k is a big resistance zone if 7.5k is broken :). And it looks like 7.5k can't hold . However because of 4hr oversold status, im expecting we might have deep little more then rebounce back a little, stay in range for few hours to cooldown the RSI , then we will keep the dumping journal :)
Comment: not a good time to buy. BTC should drop more. We can even test 6.8k (important support). Patience is needed. Chart looks ugly right now
Comment: look like this battle will drag for a while because short-term timeframe looks bullish
Comment: finally a move, let's go down more btc, 6.8k is waiting for u :)
Comment: 1,2hr is very bullish. Long battle . Anyway, time for waiting again
Comment: EMA 200 on 2hr has been holding back btc few times now. If btc can't even break it, it clearly says that BULL has NO strength anymore. We can expect 6.8k sooner or later (maybe a pause at 7.15k first)
Comment: such a long battle because we are at important support zone >>><<<
1hr,2hr,4hr still looks bullish with bull div forming
1Day still looks bearish.

What to do now ? do nothing, next daily candle will have the action :)
Comment: A very interesting situation has happened on OKex exchange. A 480 mil $ long has been liquidated but there is not enough fund to cover the liquidation . So 480 mil $ has been set at 8k$ price right now. A decision will be made at 4:00pm Hong Kong time tomorrow . Will it boost bitcoin price back to 8k$ ? not sure yet , but 1/2/4hr are bullish . Such an interesting development is worth at observing
Comment: finally new day, im expecting an action to show clear direction within today
Comment: my 6.8k-7k order is ready
Comment: I really have mixed feeling right now. 1D chart clearly says to go down more. However, because of the situation on OKEX exchange, whales might start manipulating bitcoin's price to pump it back to 8k$ to fill the unfilled 430mil$ . Crypto market is still low liquid so it is easy to do that. This is the time everyone should pay attention to 16:00 Hong Kong time on August 3
Comment: around 7hr 30 minutes more
Comment: owwwwww, OKEX can't win gravity
Comment: today is red, tomorrow will be another red. Then we will recover
Comment: total cap still has more room to drop :)
Comment: bull div on 4hr
we are testing the downtrend again after piercing it. If it can break with current short bullish sentiment, the recover can go max to 7.8k.
Nothing is changed in mid-term view, we will go lower sooner or later

In conclusion, recover during this weekend, then start dumping like shit again on next week :)
Comment: ideally, I want to see bitcoin to do one more flash fast dump to near 7050 with fast rebounce so we all can catch that dip within today and recover on Saturday and Sunday. That will probably be the safest buy for this short recover. Will it happen? Lol, it is just like to win lottery :))
Comment: lol at btc. 6.7k-6.8k range is an important support line. It needs to hold, we should expect some bounce at that level. After that, IF it continues on dropping more, bear is in favor.

In conclusion, short-term bear is in favor because August 10th is approaching
Mid-term (next 2 and a half month ) MEGA MEGA MEGA SUPER SUPER BULLISH :)) . You will know the reason if you follow news :)
Comment: the uptrend line of this rally is around 6.5k now because of multiple red days :). Let's drop more bitcoin
Comment: such selling intense but 6.8k is strong support. Let's see if we can pierce through it.
Still can't find bullish signal except testing support zone
possible bull div on 4hr chart of total market cap but need today's candle end to confirm it.
I am still waiting sideline until I see bullish signal to join in
Comment: today's candle might end up as a spinning top one which says indecision. That's good because it shows that bull has hesitated to push lower but bear is also in fear to buy :). Therefore, next daily candle is important. It will give hint for the direction.

In conclusion, bear strength is in doubt now but doesn't mean the dump is over
Comment: opps wrong statement . Should be " bear * has hesitated to push lower but bull is also in fear to buy :) "
Trade closed manually: new post
I am sorry but, what are the news that make you MEGA MEGA MEGA SUPER SUPER BULLISH in the Mid-term (next 2 and a half month ) ?
SamHuynh adam_evangelos
@adam_evangelos, regulated crypto market will come to US on November. It will pave a way for ETF. In addition , it also has back-physical bitcoin future (not like the current CME /CBOE future). Pretty much it is THE BEST NEWS of the year for crypto world
@SamHuynh, thank you
From the looks of it it would test 7580 and resume dumping and that price 71/70will be approached soon. Opened shorts 7520/7550/7580...
+1 Reply
SamHuynh Turningmecard
better not to short at that price. Weekend is coming
@SamHuynh, i opened shorts at 7700 and took profit at 73 and went long and closed it a while ago. I think the market will go sideways on weekends..
Agree 100%!
love u
How old is this chart we went to 78ish earlier today ....
SamHuynh MarkoRoy
@MarkoRoy, below the post , it says how old it is . I post it less than 1 hr after the daily candle was formed
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