Bitcoin's Big ABC Still in Play? Part 3

So far still following that blue line of mine in the bigger picture but things are starting to look more bearish than a few days ago. On the left it is starting to look like a pattern. Making one ABC' after the other and as we can see, the channels are shifting more downwards as well. This is not a pattern i have much experience with, but the first obvious thought is weakness. Fact that we broke out of that wedge on the right yesterday, but with very low volume, is also a sign of weakness.

As long as we stay above the 3300 (3200/3350), the bullish version can still work out. Also when looking at alts, it is not looking great as well. LTC' and EOS' are maybe the only ones (from my list) that look good. With LTC' just moving up strong the past few days and EOS' making a good break up as well, but no real volume though for the EOS' breakout. XRP' made a big rally a few days ago as well, but it has been quite weak since. All of this weakness can turn very quickly, because only a small push up could change the picture for the short/mid term again. Because of the low volume through out the whole market, it makes it very difficult to judge. In general low volume is bearish, but at this stage, with the shape of a wedge, it could also be a bullish sign.

My best guess to be more certain of the real direction, is waiting for the day that volume on Bitmex increases to 1.5/2 billion. OI is also still quite high, still suggesting a big move is coming.

That blue curved line is also very bearish, but that one can also easily break with a push above 3450/80.
On the right we can see that break up out of the wedge, but the fact that it only had a very small break up and already below the breakout level, makes it also very weak. We had these kind of breakouts several times in the 6K range as well. Making weak breakouts from all those triangles we had back then.

So in general, nothing clear to say at the moment. A break of that third channel on the left (up or down) could give a good indication. The blue curved line as well, but with some margin (TA is not exact science).
A break of 3380ish would probably be an indication that the small wedge breakout failed completely. So i would watch in first instance the 3380ish and the 3450/80. Anything in between is all noise with bearish movement having slightly the upper hand in that range. Other levels on the downside are known (3300ish) and on the upside it's the 3550/3600 zone.





Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)




Previous analysis:

Comment:

Update Bitcoin analysis: