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Bitcoin Monthly Double Zigzag Nearing Completion

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
It appears that drop to 165 on finex didn't give us the spring board bounce I was hoping for. What now seems more obvious to me is that we are in Wave C of the 2nd Zigzag on the Monthly timeframe . This means that once this final dump is complete there are only 2 options left: either we begin a major bull run on the monthly chart OR we get another x-wave and get yet another bearish zigzag, which could take another year to complete. At that point we'd have no choice but to go up because there have never been any patterns beyond a triple zigzag that have been discovered so it is extremely unlikely that we would get another x-wave, also triple zigzags usually have very strong counter-trend power.

Wave c is definitely not done yet because we haven't broken under wave a yet, so, that's a very good indication that we have to keep going much lower before this finally moons. Chances are that we will drop down anywhere from 131 to 87 USD. The bull run after is largely dependent on whether or not we get an extended 5th wave or a truncated 5th wave (considering that this is actually wave 4). If it is truncated we are likely to stop under 850 USD, if it is extended we are likely to stop around 2000 USD.

It looks like we have about 2 more months of downtrend left in Bitcoin , so I would be careful holding any longs for extended periods. I personally will be trading shorter time-frames than this monthly, It might not be a very good short on the lower time-frames at the time of publishing, but the point of this chart is more just to get the bigger picture locked in my head which is clearly down for a couple more months. The lower time-frame is unclear and I stopped out of my long position when the large harmonic supports started to fail. Right now, I am waiting for a better short-term signal to take a short position.

Here is another view of the Elliott Wave count on bitfinex, the retracement ID confirms that this has the structure of a double zigzag and the current wave we are in is a zigzag and not a flat or triangle.
snapshot

This looks like the point of maximum pain, longs and hodlers will get crushed and we will ride to the moon on the fuel of their tears.

In times like this it is imperative to keep your perspective intact by not trading more money than you can afford to lose. "The most important commodity you will ever trade is your perspective." So it is very important that you do not lose you perspective by getting greedy or fearful and that you always Want What the Market Wants.

I appreciate any comments and thumbs up
Good luck and happy trading! :)
good job
+2 Reply
Thank you for your perspective.
+1 Reply
bbrox
a year ago
Great work!
+1 Reply
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