Hitting an upper trend line here. Very bullish move but I would suggest caution here and perhaps you will get a better entry point so if you are thinking of entering here then perhaps a half position or one third to start.
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If you are the brave type you might even want to take a bit off the table here and repurchase at the retrace.
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The only problem with that is if it does move up on the the upper black trend line now you might end up chasing your tail...
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Could retest the 50 MA here which is also the mark of the previous impulse high point.
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Here we can see what all the fuss was about. The target being the 200 MA on the 2 hour chart. It will have to overcome this average and hold up above it with good support for a continuation of the bullish momentum.
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Most likely though we will see the retrace here that I was speaking about earlier. But over all the future looks fairly rosy I would say.
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So I'm finding yet again that I'm adjusting the vector of my black trend lines even steeper and you can see that the overall steepening by comparing to the previous bull vector (black line) to the left side of the chart. This is a bit concerning as it does indicate a couple of things. I usually see the most steepening occur in the final last two big rallies in a blow off top and after this the correction will be fairly severe and two it make me question the overall sustainability of this current rally beyond the target are in the fib chart which happens to be the top of the previous wave. Hmmm... that is a bit concerning. Not to panic anyone but I think many traders will take a fair bit off at the matching top area most likely just below it. What happens next will be very interesting to say the least... just something to think about...
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Personally I think we will push beyond this top to the 31 to 34 K area but there may be a big struggle to be overcome when the time comes to push through this massive resistance and it will most likely take 2 or more attempts.
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Now just looking back on the 45 min chart and we do have a golden crossover coming into play... this is getting very interesting!
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Looking at a 3 hour chart now and as you can see, there is massive upside potential here if the 20 MA and 50 MA can continue to turn and move up through the 200 MA. This is a likely scenario now and if you are holding alt coins in the current alt coin rally then I would seriously watch them closely for an inverse reaction... just saying...
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There`s no way now that we are going to have the retrace here that I had expected earlier, and what that means is that my fib chart projection was way off because I was using the smaller formation and should have been using the larger complex as wave one. Now this looks way way better and it also eliminated some of those concerns that I had when I was rambling on earlier.
Sometimes we can`t see the forest because we`re staring at a tree. Sorry about that. That`s why I didn`t really push the idea to sell here at 16000... something just did not feel right.
My idea now is that we are going to have a retrace now at the half way point but that makes complete sense because we would expect to be turned down at the top and have to take a second run at it.
You know charting form the bottom is like trying to figure out the end of a story have only read the first chapter but as the story unfolds it becomes increasingly easier to deduce what the ending might bed. This is why it is important to approach your charting with zero bias (fundamentalists) and re evaluate continuously.
Have enjoyed your analysis the past few days and updates on this. Fairly new to charting (2-3 weeks starting looking for resources -- and I think I'm going to focus on trying to look at historical data/charts to map how many indicators are at play and most important).
Looking up Golden cross now...first I've heard of it. I'm guessing the 3 black lines are pitchfork (PF)...blue lines too? Not quite sure how to apply them yet. Flags, triangles, H&S, A&E -- all seem to pop out.
A sleeper to me (again, newb, input welcome) is the lagging indicator above the current price. I'm still trying to see if the Ichimuko cloud is worthwhile except for when you get all other signals aligning or crossing into it (e.g. TK, 20EMA going over 50 or 200 EMA or similar --- still haven't found a consistency in that regard on how to consider the cloud)...
I do have a question....the 20 EMA is the red? (can't make it out in the first photo -- too much stuff there)...but if so, both 20 and 50 MA below 200 MA -- also bullish(?)....
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, I use simple moving averages because they give the most accurate targets. 20 MA is red and is contained within the B Bands, the 50 MA is blue and the 200 MA is the pink and golden crossover refers to the 50 MA pushing up through the 200 MA but it is normally referred to in the context of a daily chart.
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, I try to keep my charts simple but at times they do end up being overly complicated...lol. The trend lines I use are normally derived from moving averages on differing time scale charts so you won't always see the correlation. Most people think trend lines are simple lines placed on top of established price points but they are much more than that because price point don't just stop in mid air before they reverse... they are generally seeking out a target and that target is some moving average that is above. Although in a blue sky event the trend lines will be drawn using previous wave tops. Hope that helps... anyway just my opinion... I'm sure many others have a different take on it.
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, Also in a blue sky event the targets are quite often based on the next rising fib level. Traders are looking for something to indicate the music will stop... lol.
devosp
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@graham.edwards84, appreciate that. So one thought -- reading up on Golden cross and perhaps taking into consideration that the traditional stock market is much slower (also only 8-4? 5 days a week) whereas Crypto is 24-7, 7 days a week...is the 200 MA a bit long for considerations? Is this more of a 20-50 game in that regard? I know this is new and not sure how long you've been in the game -- but was thinking that might be a consideration for some...or maybe even 100 day as it seems BTC has this 3 month "cruise" then dump!
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, definitely... yes, the 20 moving up through the 50 can carry an equally substantial bullish impulse it really just depends on the time frame charts you are watching and if you missed my information on chart pairings you can go back through my charts to take a look at what i mean. The 50 and the 200 will line up perfectly with each other on two different time frame charts one being 4 X the time scale of the other. It's all relative. The fact that cryptos are so new in relative terms let's say to world currencies like the US$ or Euro means that absolutely they are incredibly more volatile... it could be decades before they move onto monthly charts like the world currencies trade on. Why we would we want to be anywhere else right now? Cryptos and Cannabis stocks... you can't lose...
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, well I shouldn't say that as you could certainly lose in volatile markets by miscalculating entry and exit points... but for me the volatility means huge gains are right at your fingertips. The tricky part is pulling the trigger.
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@graham.edwards84, yep -- get you your meaning. It's a lot harder to drown in this time period. Still possible...but you gotta be pretty ignorant. The part I find I may lose out on is...oh, look at STRAT...2 days later...ok...still looks good...still waiting...OH, hello LTC...you look wonderful tonight. Oh wait...but STRAT...but LTC might pop sooner. In evitably I end up taking some losses this way as I end up selling 1/2 or so to try to jump into a sooner bet. I had little funds to start (2 kids under 2, mortgage, all that jazz, wife not working now) so probably have added bad psychology to try to "race up" or gain an advantage over BTC. I'm not a maximalist -- honestly -- too knew to fully arrive at a "political position" on BTC. Goal is to make 40%+ on investments per month, pull out the $ so wife is happy. lol "Happy wife, happy life..."
graham.edwards84
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@devosp, there's a couple of strategies to use with cryptos and cannabis stocks. The you can play the swing trades or you can simply buy and hold. Holding is scary at times over the long run but even those who buy and hold throughout all the turbulence will be handsomely rewarded for their patience. How many traders have bought and sold bitcoin only to scramble to get them back later and in the process have reduced their holdings? Hands up... lol... mine is up... lolol...
devosp
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@graham.edwards84, I'd say I'd like to play the swing game. I'm a WFH engineer. So can sorta monitor trades here and there throughout the day. So I'd like to get strong enough (your charts have been great -- also found learning from CarpeNoctem YT channel) to where I could spend an hour in the morning. Picking a few horses for 1..2...3 day trades. That would be 80% of it. Then I'd probably have some sort of 'index' of long term holdings...maybe mid market caps? Or maybe this is Bitcoin's world. I've only been "here" since September...never looked at a chart before. Goal now is to learn some charting, then I think having a coin-marketcap like ratio (e.g. STRAT, WAVES tho high in price, easier to move up % than say, TRX or XRP (I hate XRP...held since day 1 until Dec 12 8am...it went up 50% starting at 9am lol G-Dammit!!) type where they have a BAZILLION coins and to get to say $2 for XRP would have to double it's market cap. Looking for API's now to get the data.
So getting really good at that 80% of swing trades (no idea what the pot stocks are -- OTC? or here?) I believe is probably best bet to optimize my earnings vs time available ratio. Can't be chasing McAfee's pumps or the day traders every hour of the day...
Looking up Golden cross now...first I've heard of it. I'm guessing the 3 black lines are pitchfork (PF)...blue lines too? Not quite sure how to apply them yet. Flags, triangles, H&S, A&E -- all seem to pop out.
A sleeper to me (again, newb, input welcome) is the lagging indicator above the current price. I'm still trying to see if the Ichimuko cloud is worthwhile except for when you get all other signals aligning or crossing into it (e.g. TK, 20EMA going over 50 or 200 EMA or similar --- still haven't found a consistency in that regard on how to consider the cloud)...
I do have a question....the 20 EMA is the red? (can't make it out in the first photo -- too much stuff there)...but if so, both 20 and 50 MA below 200 MA -- also bullish(?)....