BTC: Applying a fib channel

INDEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As a followup to my previous ideas regarding an 11-year trendline and massive W's being created, I've applied a fib channel tool that runs parallel to this trendline and to the ATH's that were formed so far. I decided to share this as it shows much more nicely than a standard fib retracement tool how the price action has behaved in the last 3 months.

Note that the bottom of the fib channel is the bottom of the small cup below the red trendline. This is because I believe that this cup is precisely the starting point of all price action since then.

As you can see, the fib levels line up nicely with the price action, especially the 0.382 and 0.618 fib levels. You can also see why the price action keeps hitting slightly higher levels recently. Although it seems it broke through the 0.618 fib level when applying a normal fib retracement tool, with this tool one can see that this is not yet the case.

Currently, BTC is moving down and has practically touched the 0.382 fib level. Question is whether this will hold or if it will go down to the 0.236 fib level. I'm currently estimating chances a bit higher that it will go to the 0.236 fib level. In any case, I'm expecting a massive move up after that.

Finally, have a look at the price level that 1.618 fib level ends up around June/July...

PS: Not to scare anyone, but if I flip the channel upside down, the 1.618 fib level comes awfully close to the USD 36500 level, which could be a potential technical target of the large double top if it plays out (see my previous idea).
Comment: Hmmm, CPI and Elon Musk.....

Price came right down to the 0-level, which also is the weekly 21 EMA. It is good that that is giving support.

Right now, it is exactly retesting the 11-year red trendline. If it does manage to get above it, then it was still a fakeout of sorts and I would expect it to shoot up.
If it doesn't, then it will likely fall further to the mentioned USD 36500.


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