BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin / Dollar
This analysis was a look back at the amount of time any given major upward move has taken to hit after achieving it's high point. To-date, every single major upward/downward move retraced to at least 50% in the same amount of time (or less) as it took to print the highest high/ lowest low. When measuring these moves (above) I used what visually appeared to be start of the move up, from real body of the candles- not the candle tails/wicks. In subsequent analysis I've started measuring the moves more precisely (see below). Past performance not indicative of future results. ...etc.
Click the "share" button and then "make it yours" to view all the other past moves and subsequent 50% retracements, it's compelling. As always comments and input welcome. cheers.
I'll be posting Follow ups on "Date Range Forcasting the 50%" to see how well it holds over time. This most recent move that I was following occurred a bit late, even after giving the "bottom" some latitude. Better late than never and we're still staying true to the theory. Once the top is in, 50% retracement is hit in *approximately* the same amount of time as it took to print the high :
I've not been very diligent about posting these but I have continued to observe them, both in bullish and bearish moves. This is one that has not yet completed. Price was ranging and just broke out to the down side of the range where it bounced. If the theory holds it will have to tap 50% retracement at $365 in the next couple bars (about 4 hours) or we can expect to see lower lows under $344.
Everyone is calling for much lower lows after having broken the 340 daily support level. While I tend to agree with them my target was hit and now I'm watching for where action will take me for my next set up. Our current local low at 315.23 looks to be situated at a good reversal point. It's at the top of an old trend channel and aligns nicely with our SCMR monthly and weekly dynamic support levels. Date Range Forecasting theory says that if the low is in, we'll either see $337 or much lower lows in the next three days.