ninjabenja
Short

Date Range Forecasting 50% Retracements

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
601 15 7


This analysis was a look back at the amount of time any given major upward move has taken to hit 50% retracement after achieving it's high point. To-date, every single major upward/downward move retraced to at least 50% in the same amount of time (or less) as it took to print the highest high/ lowest low. When measuring these moves (above) I used what visually appeared to be start of the move up, from real body of the candles- not the candle tails/wicks. In subsequent analysis I've started measuring the moves more precisely (see below). Past performance not indicative of future results. ...etc.

Click the "share" button and then "make it yours" to view all the other past moves and subsequent 50% retracements, it's compelling. As always comments and input welcome. cheers.
I'll be posting Follow ups on "Date Range Forcasting the 50%" to see how well it holds over time. This most recent move that I was following occurred a bit late, even after giving the "bottom" some latitude. Better late than never and we're still staying true to the theory. Once the top is in, 50% retracement is hit in *approximately* the same amount of time as it took to print the high :
snapshot
Reply
I've not been very diligent about posting these but I have continued to observe them, both in bullish and bearish moves. This is one that has not yet completed. Price was ranging and just broke out to the down side of the range where it bounced. If the theory holds it will have to tap 50% retracement at $365 in the next couple bars (about 4 hours) or we can expect to see lower lows under $344.
snapshot
Reply
...And here it is after resolution. True to the analysis the break in the range to the downside proved to be a good entry signal and an indication that the 50% retest would not be achieved before new lows.
Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
snapshot
Reply
Very interesting idea. It seems like if you have an effective entry strategy along with this concept, you could make quite profitable trades.
Reply
Here the 50% retracement forecast setup I'm taking now. Price has 6 bars (aprox 12 hrs.) to break out and above the local high at 353.13 or we should be looking for a retest of the .50 fib at 336.58
snapshot
Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
here's the resolution: price broke out above the bearish trendline and right on cue, we got our higher high
snapshot
Reply
Everyone is calling for much lower lows after having broken the 340 daily support level. While I tend to agree with them my target was hit and now I'm watching for where action will take me for my next set up. Our current local low at 315.23 looks to be situated at a good reversal point. It's at the top of an old trend channel and aligns nicely with our SCMR monthly and weekly dynamic support levels. Date Range Forecasting theory says that if the low is in, we'll either see $337 or much lower lows in the next three days.
snapshot
Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
... And here is the resolution: Price action made an attempt to retrace but failed to get any further than 327 before plunging for the lower lows.
snapshot
Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
Here is that same move with the Date Range Forecast adjusted for the new lower-lows. We're looking for a retest of $332 in the next two days or we'll be taking the plunge again.
snapshot
+2 Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
... and here is the final termination of that move. Price reversed to tap our %50, Just Like Date Range Forecasting said it should once the bottom of the move was in.
+1 Reply
ninjabenja PRO ninjabenja
snapshot
+1 Reply
HdahTomas ninjabenja
nice
Reply
Date Range Forecasting FTW:
snapshot
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out