This analysis was a look back at the amount of time any given major upward move has taken to hit 50% retracement after achieving it's high point. To-date, every single major upward/downward move retraced to at least 50% in the same amount of time (or less) as it took to print the highest high/ lowest low. When measuring these moves (above) I used what visually appeared to be start of the move up, from real body of the candles- not the candle tails/wicks. In subsequent analysis I've started measuring the moves more precisely (see below). Past performance not indicative of future results. ...etc.
Click the "share" button and then "make it yours" to view all the other past moves and subsequent 50% retracements, it's compelling. As always comments and input welcome. cheers.
Comments
ninjabenja
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Date Range Forecasting FTW:
ninjabenja
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Everyone is calling for much lower lows after having broken the 340 daily support level. While I tend to agree with them my target was hit and now I'm watching for where action will take me for my next set up. Our current local low at 315.23 looks to be situated at a good reversal point. It's at the top of an old trend channel and aligns nicely with our SCMR monthly and weekly dynamic support levels. Date Range Forecasting theory says that if the low is in, we'll either see $337 or much lower lows in the next three days.
ninjabenja
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... And here is the resolution: Price action made an attempt to retrace but failed to get any further than 327 before plunging for the lower lows.
ninjabenja
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Here is that same move with the Date Range Forecast adjusted for the new lower-lows. We're looking for a retest of $332 in the next two days or we'll be taking the plunge again.
ninjabenja
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... and here is the final termination of that move. Price reversed to tap our %50, Just Like Date Range Forecasting said it should once the bottom of the move was in.
ninjabenja
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HdahTomas
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nice
ninjabenja
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Here the 50% retracement forecast setup I'm taking now. Price has 6 bars (aprox 12 hrs.) to break out and above the local high at 353.13 or we should be looking for a retest of the .50 fib at 336.58
ninjabenja
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here's the resolution: price broke out above the bearish trendline and right on cue, we got our higher high
Yolos
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Very interesting idea. It seems like if you have an effective entry strategy along with this concept, you could make quite profitable trades.